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THE DARK KNIGHT RISES Set Visit Preview and 4 Awesome New Posters!2011 Oscar Preview
by Adam Chitwood Posted:November 26th, 2010 at 8:04 am
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The holiday season is officially upon us. While that means copious amounts of cholesterol and decidedly awkward confrontations with family members, it also makes for a few days of fairly slow news. So with that, what better time than now to start seriously thinking about the Oscars? Awards season is in full swing, and the majority of the “Oscar-bait” films have been seen, so we can now begin to put together some lists that actually make sense. After scouring the field, we’ve broken down all the major categories and compiled what we see to be the frontrunners, likely nominations, and outside contenders in each race.
Before we begin, a quick reminder. This is still quite early in the Oscar season. While it’s true that most of the films have been seen and it’s decidedly easier to predict nominees at this time, choosing the winner is a bit tougher. A lot could change between now and February, or things could stay pretty much the same. We just don’t know. But this is how the races seem to be stacking up at the moment. So what are you waiting for? Hit the jump and let the guessing game begin.
Best Picture
Frontrunners:
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
127 Hours
Likely to be nominated:
Black Swan
Inception
Toy Story 3
The Kids are All Right
True Grit
The Fighter
Outside contenders:
Blue Valentine
The Town
Winter’s Bone
Never Let Me Go
Shutter Island
The Best Picture race has been a dogfight between The King’s Speech and The Social Network for the past couple of months, but since 127 Hours started screening in the last few weeks, the flick has been moving up the list fast. The King’s Speech is the typical Oscar-bait juggernaut: it’s a period piece, it involves a disabled person overcoming obstacles, and it’s set in England; not to mention, it’s one hell of a film. The Social Network is the film that’s had everyone talking. It invaded the zeitgeist with its generation-defining story, one of the most respected directors in the business, and quite possibly the best script Aaron Sorkin has written (which is really saying something). Before its release, early word on 127 Hours was good, but the film has gained some serious traction since it started screening a couple of weeks ago, particularly in James Franco’s powerhouse performance. Could the Slumdog Millionaire Oscar-winning duo of Director Danny Boyle and Screenwriter Simon Beaufoy have another surprise win on their hands? At this point, it’s a little too early to tell, but if anything was going to spoil King’s Speech or Social Network right now, it would be 127 Hours. Black Swan is another serious contender, but there’s fear that its intensity may be too much for some of the older voters in the Academy. But there’s no denying that the film has its passionate advocates. Inception was refreshingly original in a summer full of duds, but it may be seen as too commercial for the big win. Disney-Pixar is aiming for the top prize with Toy Story 3, but it’s also a bit of a long shot to win. It just doesn’t seem to have the muscle to elbow out some of the bigger films, even though it may have garnered the most emotional response out of viewers of any film this year. As for True Grit, nobody has even seen the film yet. But if one thing can be learned from Oscar seasons past, never count out the Coen brothers. So let’s just say we’re cautiously optimistic at the moment.
Best Director
Frontrunners:
David Fincher – The Social Network
Danny Boyle – 127 Hours
Likely to be nominated:
Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech
Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
Christopher Nolan – Inception
Outside contenders:
Joel & Ethan Coen – True Grit
Peter Weir – The Way Back
Lisa Cholodenko – The Kids Are All Right
The Best Director race is understandably similar to the Best Picture race at the moment. Fincher’s work in The Social Network shows masterful restraint, and Boyle managed to make a film which largely takes place in a small rock cavern visually invigorating. With The King’s Speech being a frontrunner for Best Picture, you can expect Hooper to be at the top of the list of the Director race. Of the 82 films that have won Best Picture, 60 of them have also won Best Director, so these two categories are very closely tied together. And with the list of Best Picture nominees expanded to ten, many look to this category to determine the 5 “real” Best Picture nominees. It would be surprising if either Aronofsky or Nolan were overlooked; both of their films are obviously Director-driven, not to mention wholly original. If True Grit lives up to the hype, expect the Coen brothers to be nominated as well. Weir could be the wild-card in this category. He’s been nominated for Best Director four times in his career, and is something of an Academy favorite. Then again, it’s also conceivable to think that someone like Cholodenko or David O. Russell could pick up the last slot.
Best Actor
Frontrunners:
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
James Franco – 127 Hours
Likely to be nominated:
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Mark Wahlberg – The Fighter
Robert Duvall – Get Low
Outside contenders:
Javier Bardem – Biutiful
Jeff Bridges – True Grit
Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine
Leonardo DiCaprio – Inception
Yet again we come back to King’s Speech, Social Network, and 127 Hours. Firth was long thought to be the frontrunner by a fairly wide margin, but Franco’s performance has been getting a great deal of attention lately. Eisenberg’s a bit of a long shot; I see the nomination being his consolation this year. Bardem has some serious buzz for his performance, and could be a dark horse. Gosling could very easily garner a nomination given his pedigree and respect in the industry. Again, no one’s seen True Grit, so he’s a bit of a question mark at this point, but it would be neat to see Bridges win two years in a row (only Tom Hanks and Spencer Tracy have accomplished this feat).
Best Actress
Frontrunners:
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right
Likely to be nominated:
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Outside contenders:
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine
Tilda Swinton – I Am Love
The Best Actress race is one of the closest right now. Both Portman and Bening have been garnering nothing but raves for their performances and it’s very much a coin toss at this point. Everyone else in this category should be happy with a nomination, because this is a two-woman race. Lawrence is an exciting newcomer and Kidman is an Academy favorite.
Best Supporting Actor
Frontrunners:
Christian Bale – The Fighter
Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech
Likely to be nominated:
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right
Sam Rockwell – Conviction
Michael Douglas – Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
Outside contenders:
Armie Hammer – The Social Network
Andrew Garfield – The Social Network
Ed Harris – The Way Back
This could finally be Bale’s year, after incredible performances in just about every role he takes on (I think we can safely pretend like Terminator: Salvation never happened now, right?). His work in The Fighter has everyone talking, and at the moment this category looks like his to lose. However, Rush could very well pull an upset. He hasn’t won since Shine and his role in The King’s Speech seems right up the Academy’s alley. Douglas’ cancer scare will more than likely have the Academy thinking of him, though whether he gets nominated for Wall Street or Solitary Man is a bit of a toss-up. Given the nostalgia for the role, and the resonance with today’s economic times, Wall Street may be the better bet. Rockwell does some great work in Conviction, but he most likely has a better role in him somewhere down the line that the Academy will reward him for (that guilt for snubbing him for Moon has to catch up sometime). Hammer and Garfield turned in fine performances in Social Network, but they may be a bit too young. However, the Supporting categories always seem to be where the out-of-left-field nominee comes from every year, so Hammer or Garfield (or even Timberlake) could still be a possibility.
Best Supporting Actress
Frontrunners:
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Julianne Moore – The Kids Are All Right
Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
Likely to be nominated:
Dianne Weist – Rabbit Hole
Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom
Amy Adams – The Fighter
Outside contenders:
Mila Kunis – Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
Although Moore’s performance in The Kids are All Right is definitely a leading role, if Focus Features is smart they’ll move her to the Supporting category. They would avoid her splitting votes with Bening in Best Actress, and both women would have a far greater chance of winning in their respective categories (and deservedly so). Bonham Carter also has a decent shot, as do indie-darlings Weist and Weaver. Adams is also a safe bet; there’s no denying the girl’s talent and she’s due to win one of these someday. Again, True Grit is a bit of a shot in the dark, but the Supporting categories love child-newcomers in breakthrough performances.
So that’s it. This is where we stand three months out from the ceremony. As I said, a lot can change and a lot can stay the same. Expect the frontrunners to fluctuate a bit as buzz moves up and down, but it’s rare that new frontrunners come from out of the blue in the middle of December (though that’s exactly what happened with Jeff Bridges last year). Nominations for the 83rd Academy Awards will be announced on January 25th, and the ceremony will be held on February 27th. Expect more coverage as the date comes closer.
So what do you think? Any we missed? Any dark-horse candidates you see as potential spoilers?
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Related Links
- 2011 Oscar Nominations Announced; THE KING’S SPEECH Leads with 12 Nominations
- Producers Guild Award Nominees Announced
- Best Performances, Directors, and Other Miscellany of 2010
- AFI Announces the Top 10 Movies and TV Programs of 2010
- WGA Announces Screenplay Nominations; Nods for BLACK SWAN, THE SOCIAL NETWORK, and INCEPTION
I agree with most of these, but I wish Let Me In would get some consideration, it was a great film.
so pale compared to LET THE RIGHT ONE IN. Not even close.
Yes the original was better, but the American version was done well, and I think should get at least a nomination somewhere instead of getting swept under the rug, which it most likely will, unfortunately.
Where is Leslie Manville in Best Actress???
“Entertainment Weekly confirms that Focus Features will be campaigning both women (Julianne Moore, and Annette Bening) for the Best Actress Oscar for their performances in Lisa Cholodenko’s The Kids Are All Right, which contradicts previous thought that Moore might end up in the supporting category.”
Anyone know if this is true or false?
i agree with the lists in general except i think the likely front runners are playing it a little too safe… i think there’s more than a good chance that some of the “outside contenders” have real chances at winning this year.
i think either buried will get nominated for best picture, or Renolds will get a nomination for best actor
I have a firm belief that one of the nominees for Best Supporting Actress will be Chloe Moretz for her incredible performance as Hit Girl in Kick-Ass
While I, personally, would like nothing more, I don’t see it. A very physical, controversial role in a violent, vulgar superhero send-up? Not exactly the academy’s taste. Moretz will likely get the first in what’s sure to be a career of MANY nominations for either Hugo Cabret or Hick.
Unless the Academy totally overlooks it, I think Rabbit Hole is a much stronger contender for acting nods than you’re making it out to be. Kidman was fantastic, and I’d put her just behind Portman and Bening only because she hasn’t gotten quite the same amount of buzz yet. I also think Aaron Eckhart deserves some love, and although lead actor is a strong category, I’d put him as at least an outside contender.
Also, I’d love to see an early post on some of the other categories – I think the writing and score categories are pretty interesting this year.
Just take Wahlberg out of “likely to be nominated” list and replace him with Bardem, and I’ll be in a complete agreement with this write-up. This is exactly how I see the whole thing at this point.
Five simple words: Best Picture Toy Story 3.
thats four words and one number
Hey!! Totally agree about Toy Story 3 for the Best Picture. Why isn’t it a front runner? It’s the best reviewed, highest-grossing movie of the year and from the best movie studio in the industry. If there was ever an animated film to finally win the ‘big one’ it’s the final chapter to the series that started Pixar’s run. Especially when it totally deserves it. What other movie made people feel such emotion, reduced critics (even manly men) to tears, and had the most talked about scene of the year (you know the one).
Again – Toy Story 3 for the Best Picture. If another period piece or drama wins than its clear the Oscars are a sham. let the right one win!
Toy Story 3=predictable sentimentalism…
The first two on the other hand were original and touching…
Yahzee=Tight-ass whore
what’s with the name calling??? oh I think I touched a nerve there eh? or is it that because you are so sensitive that actually cried with that movie?? xD I rather cry with Penguin’s death in Batman Returns… now that’s touching
what’s with the name calling??? oh I think I touched a nerve there eh? or is it that because you are so sensitive that actually cried with that movie?? xD I rather cry with Penguin’s death in Batman Returns… now that’s touching
Yahzee=Tight-ass whore
I actually agree. Toy Story 3 was a good film, but it was a major step down from Pixar’s earlier films. I personally thought Up should have won last year, though.
P.S. The Oscars ARE a sham…. didn’t you knew that already?
what about jermey renner for his awesome performance in the town. He deserves a spot in best supporting actors. He commanded your attention every time he was on the screen in the film. Also i think ben affleck deserves a spot in the best director category. The town and let me in were way better then the social network(over rated) it was good but no where near a masterpiece, like true grit is gonna be and black swan
True say – I agree that The Town and all it’s cast in general deserve much more recognition than as currently stands. Hopefully Renner and Affleck will get their just deserves, be it now or in the future.
I don’t know about Michael Douglas getting a nomination–he already won an Oscar for playing Gecko. I’d heard John Hawkes was really good in “Winter’s Bone.” Where the nominees for “The Bounty Hunter”? Sacrilege!
http://www.youscreeniscreen.com
I’m hooping that Jeremy Renner gets a surprise Best Supporting Nomination because i think he outranked everybody on the list in The Town
I’m hooping that Jeremy Renner gets a surprise Best Supporting Nomination because i think he outranked everybody on the list in The Town
Jesse Eisneberg for Bast Actor, Inception for the big kahuna.
Also, Rooney Mara for a support nom?
Rooney Mara?! Are you kidding me? Did we see the same movie because she was in like 2 scenes!!
Ruby Dee won for a one scene role in American Gangster
Ruby Dee won for a one scene role in American Gangster
What About Tron Legacy !! it’s not released yet !! and many good movies in December!! this is too early
I’ll go ahead and guarantee Sorkin with Best Adapted Screenplay win. Nolan with AT LEAST a best original screenplay nomination, The Kids Are All Right, Black Swan, and Toy Story 3 will also probably get a nom in the original screenplay category.
For music, my frontrunners would be: Trent Reznor/The Social Network, Zimmer/Inception, Desplat/The Kings Speech, and probably Daft Punk/Tron Legacy and Clint Mansell/Black Swan
Sorkin’s definitely got Adapted in the bag. In the extremely unlikely event that he would be upset (I’m thinking of Jason Reitman for Up in the Air), it would probably go to Boyle and Beaufoy for 127 Hours or Michael Arndt for TS3.
Original is a little harder to predict. King’s Speech has a good shot given it’s frontrunner status in the major categories, but I could see Cholodenko winning for Kids are All Right or the team from Black Swan. Nolan will def be nominated (I hope, though it’s disconcerting that his brother’s script for TDK was snubbed), but may be a bit of a long shot for the win. Voters in this category usually like talkative films or small character pieces. But I absolutely feel he deserves serious consideration.
As for Score, Reznor seems to be the one everybody’s buzzing about. Lots of love for Zimmer’s score as well, but there’s worry that he’ll be disqualified on technicalities a la TDK (his use and distortion of the Edith Piaf song could deem the work “not original”, which is total bullshit)
Sorkin’s definitely got Adapted in the bag. In the extremely unlikely event that he would be upset (I’m thinking of Jason Reitman for Up in the Air), it would probably go to Boyle and Beaufoy for 127 Hours or Michael Arndt for TS3.
Original is a little harder to predict. King’s Speech has a good shot given it’s frontrunner status in the major categories, but I could see Cholodenko winning for Kids are All Right or the team from Black Swan. Nolan will def be nominated (I hope, though it’s disconcerting that his brother’s script for TDK was snubbed), but may be a bit of a long shot for the win. Voters in this category usually like talkative films or small character pieces. But I absolutely feel he deserves serious consideration.
As for Score, Reznor seems to be the one everybody’s buzzing about. Lots of love for Zimmer’s score as well, but there’s worry that he’ll be disqualified on technicalities a la TDK (his use and distortion of the Edith Piaf song could deem the work “not original”, which is total bullshit)
Score should go to John Powell for How to Train Your Dragon
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if they snub Jeremy Renner for Supporting, i would be seriously disappointed. He gives the best supporting performance of the year(at least from what i have seen, and i haven’t seen King’s Speech or The Fighter yet). also, even though i haven’t seen The Fighter yet, i hope the academy at least nominates Bale. it’s over due. it’s amazing he hasn’t been nominated yet.
lastly, it’s sad that films like the American and Shutter Island will be forgotten down the hole. maybe someday, some famous and respected film-maker will site the film as their influence or one of their favorites.
ps. The Town makes Jeremy Renner in the category of the bests of actors today. truly he is great.
Totally agree about The American. Amazing film that will surely be remembered years down the road. A beautiful thriller. Any Oscar nomination, even a technical one would improve its legacy. Here’s hoping The American gets nominated for best cinematography.
Shutter Island won’t be one of the Scorsese movie’s people will be talking about years after he passes (unfortunately it has to happen eventually), but it will definitely take up cult classic status down the road.
Its a very special evening and i like this ceremony because in this ceremony being most popular super star and i do not miss it.
http://no3rush.net/
WHAT? No Marion Cotillard for Supporting Actress? If Leo is an outside contender, she most definitely is.
You forgot Lesley Manville for Best Actress and Julianne Moore is Lead and not Supporting for The Kids Are All Right.
DiCaprio should win for Shutter Island! That is all!
DiCaprio should win for Shutter Island! That is all!