Adam Predicts the 2013 Oscar Nominees

by     Posted 1 year, 98 days ago

django-unchained-movie-image-christoph-waltz-jamie-foxxBEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln

Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook

Alan Arkin – Argo

Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master

Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained 

Alternates: Javier Bardem, Leonardo DiCaprio, Samuel L. Jackson 

Ah, another tricky category.  Tommy Lee Jones is the safest bet of the bunch for Lincoln, and I’d be surprised if Alan Arkin and Robert De Niro didn’t make the cut as well.  The lack of guild support for The Master makes Philip Seymour Hoffman less of a sure thing, but I feel like the supporting categories are where the Academy will show Paul Thomas Anderson some love.

For the fifth slot, I think Christoph Waltz secures his second Oscar nomination by a hair for his scene-stealing work in Django Unchained.  The Screen Actors Guild nominated Javier Bardem for Skyfall, and that could very well happen with the Oscars as well, but I have a feeling that Django will take the “big entertaining movie” slot.  That being said, it’s also possible that Leonardo DiCaprio or Samuel L. Jackson could land the nomination instead, but my gut says Waltz provided the Django votes don’t split between the three actors.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

zac-efron-nicole-kidman-the-paperboyAnne Hathaway – Les Miserables

Helen Hunt – The Sessions

Sally Field – Lincoln

Amy Adams – The Master

Nicole Kidman – The Paperboy 

Alternates: Maggie Smith, Jacki Weaver, Ann Dowd

Sadly, there’s a fairly weak field of contenders for Best Supporting Actress this year.  Anne Hathaway is already practicing her acceptance speech for Les Miserables, and Sally Field and Helen Hunt should be working on their “happy to be nominated” faces at the moment.  Amy Adams is less of a sure thing, but again I feel like The Master will be recognized in the supporting categories and Adams’ performance in the film is vastly underrated.  A late surge for Nicole Kidman in the critically derided The Paperboy shocked quite a few people, but her SAG nomination has me thinking she’ll make the Oscar cut.

Should Kidman or Adams not find themselves among the nominees, expect to see Maggie Smith’s name instead for Best Exotic Marigold Hotel.  The actress is a legend, and she also landed a SAG award nomination.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Mark Boal Zero Dark Thirty

django-unchained-quentin-tarantino-movie-image-set-photoQuentin Tarantino – Django Unchained

Michael Haneke – Amour

Rian Johnson – Looper

Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola – Moonrise Kingdom

Alternates: Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master, John Gatins for Flight

The Best Original Screenplay race looks like a repeat of 2008, when Mark Boal and Quentin Tarantino went head-to-head with The Hurt Locker and Inglorious Basterds.  Boal just may pull out the win again with his excellent script for Zero Dark Thirty, but Tarantino’s hilarious and surprisingly emotional screenplay for Django Unchained makes for some worthy competition.

Also, proving that great things sometimes do happen to great people, I expect Rian Johnson to land his first ever Academy Award nomination for the wholly original Looper.  The script nabbed a WGA nod, paving the way for Johnson’s date with Oscar.  I also expect Michael Haneke’s Amour to nab a nomination, as well as Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola’s dynamite Moonrise Kingdom.  Going into 2012 I would have thought it impossible for Paul Thomas Anderson not to be nominated for Best Original Screenplay, but the film has had fairly weak awards supporting leading up to the Oscar nominations.  The adult drama Flight has considerable support inside the Academy, so I wouldn’t be shocked if it landed a nod as well.  If anything knocks out any of the aforementioned contenders, though, it’s gotta be The Master.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

Tony Kushner – Lincoln

Chris Terrio – Argo

the-perks-of-being-a-wallflower-emma-watson-logan-lermanDavid O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook

David Magee Life of Pi

Stephen Chbosky for The Perks of Being a Wallflower 

Alternates: Behn Zeitlin & Lucy Alibar for Beasts of the Southern Wild, Christopher Nolan & Jonathan Nolan for The Dark Knight Rises, William Nicholson for Les Miserables 

The Best Adapted Screenplay is also an exciting category, though the two far-ahead frontrunners appear to be Tony Kushner’s Lincoln and Chris Terrio’s Argo.  I also predict we’ll see David O. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook land a nomination here, and although I’m a little less sure about David Magee’s Life of Pi, my instinct says it’ll get in.  Though it was certainly one of my favorite screenplays of the year, I had a hard time believing Stephen Chbosky’s adaptation of his own novel The Perks of Being a Wallflower could break through to Oscar, but then the script nabbed a WGA nod.  Here’s hoping the Academy follows suit.

The biggest threat in this category looks to be Beasts of the Southern Wild, so if for some reason Perks or Pi don’t make the cut, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Behn Zeitlin and Lucy Alibar land a nod for Beasts.

And that’s it, folks.  All will be revealed when the nominations for the 85th Academy Awards are unveiled tomorrow, but I invite you to sound off on what you think will be nominated in the comments section below.

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  • Peter

    Why do we care about the Oscars? It’s not for giving it to the best. It’s about giving it to the popular. Example: Reese Witherspoon winning over Felicity Huffman.

    • gerard kennelly

      i agree
      TRANSAMERICA was mind blowing fearless acting
      walk the line was amazing too
      but it was oscar bait to be honest

  • Nate

    Skyfall isn’t a best picture worthy film. Sure, it was pretty good. I’d love to see Moonrise slip in there and even more so, Cloud Atlas, but I sure as hell know that’s not gonna happen.

    • Alex Hajna

      The only reason it’s being considered by critics, is because it’s directed by Sam Mendes, an Oscar-winning director, and the Academy is infamous for rewarding previous winners, even if there are more worthy contenders.

    • Shaun

      Agreed. First Bond movie I’ve seen in over two decades (and I’ve since made a point of checking out the first two Craig as Bond movies), and I really liked it. But “Best Picture” material? No, it’s not.

      I wouldn’t mind seeing Moonrise Kingdom get a nomination either.

  • oppo

    Where is The Master? Definitely best movie of the year.

    • oppo

      And Les Miserables is pretty bland movie. And got the pretty mediocre reviews.

      • Chad

        Yeah, 70% Fresh on RT is the ultimate definition of “pretty mediocre reviews”.

        Please research before you post.

      • Matt

        RE: Chad.

        I assume your response is sarcastic. Perhaps mediocre was a bit harsh, but certainly a 70% does not quite qualify as overwhelmingly positive. Above average at best. Most top critics derided the film and most reviews would qualify as tepid. Les Mis is only getting the love it is, outside Hathaway and Jackman, because its got the backing of the public.

      • Jim

        RE Chad: Rotten Tomatoes is a joke. The Metacritic score, the only one worth noting, is at 63. For comparison, The Hunger Games is at 67. It got mediocre reviews, stop being a fanboy and deal with the fact that it was poorly done.

  • Jake

    No Cloud Atlas love really shouldn’t surprise me, but goddamn. If it doesn’t get any recognition this year, I’ll be pissed. It was one of my most anticipated films this year, and boy did it put up. At least Rian Johnson is expected to get a “Best Original Screenplay” nom. He wholly deserves to win it, though I won’t hold my breath. The Academy fucking sucks.

  • gerard kennelly

    will somebody
    any body please tell me
    why have Mary Elizabeth Winstead (smashed)
    and Guy Pearce (lawless) been ignored this awards season ? ?

    • Bob

      Haven’t seen Smashed so I can’t say. But I am also a supporter of Guy Pierce. He did amazing for that movie and should be nominated. But he won’t be. Michael Pene is another actor I feel being extremly underlooked for End of Watch.

  • Bob

    I prettty much agree with a lot on this list. My Best Picture predictions are the same except I had Moonrise Kingdom in the place of Amour. Though I could see Amour taking its spot or there just being ten nominees with Amour added on with Moonrise Kingdom.

    For Best Director I really hope Hooper doesn’t get the nomination. He did win already once, so that means the Academy does like him, so they could give him another nomnation. I did have Bigelow, Lee, Spielberg, and Affleck as a lock. The last spot I hope goes to either Tarantinio or Russel. I would prefer Tarantino. And tbh, I’m not a Lee fan so I would prefer Russel over him but that prob won’t happen.

    For Best Actor I’m thinking Daniel-Day Lewis is a lock to win Best Actor for a 3rd time. Only other actor I could see winning is Jackman(just cause it’s the type of performance that could win) or maybe…..what am I say Lewis prettty much just wins…

    For Best Actress like everyone knows its a battle of Chastain vs Lawrence. And I’m rooting for Lawrence. I don’t know how to spell her name so I won’t try but I believe the actress for Amour is a lock.

    Best Supporting actor…I also predict the 4 Old timmers as well as Watlz, with the only other possibilities being Leonardo DiCaprio or Samuel L. Jackson.

    Best Supporting Actres is a battle between Hathaway, who will most likely win, or Sally Field.

    I’m tired of writing so I’m gonna stop now….

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  • Anon

    Though Waltz was fine in Django I never thought he was “scene stealing” not like he was in Inglourious. I definitely thought Dicaprio and Jackson were the life blood of the movie and would have liked to see more time given to their relationship. Waltz probably has the least risky role in terms of content where as Dicaprio and Jackson really put themselves out there.

  • Qt Better Win Screenplay, Director and Best Picture

    That Zero Dark Thirty is Yankee propaganda. Thrill as the USA shoots a man in the head without trial. USA! USA!

    • Andrew

      Please shut up.

  • Sajorij

    I hate how the categories “Best Picture” and “Best Director” are so closely tied. While surely Argo and Zero Dark Thirty were one of the best movies of the year, Affleck’s/Bigelow’s direction was not even close to The Master, Moonrise Kingdom or even more mainstream films like Skyfall or Looper. Especially Bigelow with that boring pseudo-gritty style. And don’t even get me started on that hack Tom Hooper.

  • Andrew

    “…Seeing as how there is still no consensus around one frontrunner for the trophy”

    I disagree. I think Zero Dark Thirty is the clear frontrunner for Best Picture, with Lincoln and Les Mis being close second choices.

    • I’m a Yankee Doodle Dandy

      Please Shut Up.
      The only reason Zero Dark has a shot is cause it’s Yankee porn. ‘Merica loves to pat itself on the back and justify torture through propaganda. Asshats.

      • =(

        OSAMA BACK FROM THE GRAVE??!!

  • BOO

    Why is The Master not the art house pick?

  • gotheeeem

    i would like to see sam mendes get nominated and win best director- skyfall broke a billion dollars and is the most successful bond movie ever.

    rachel weisz should win best actress for deep blue sea. she’s such a better actress than chastain.

    i saw django- leo should get nominated and win for best supporting actor but with all the p.c. and controversy re the film i think he might get screwed over. too bad to because he really was great in this movie and has always been passed over- the departed, blood diamond, inception.

    lastly- i think that nolan should be nominated for best director.

    • Shaun

      In a different year, for a different movie, I would’ve agreed with about Nolan. But TDKR was such a clusterfuck of a film. He doesn’t deserve any Oscar love for that mess. The goodwill he (rightly) earned with the first two Bat-films (and his other work) was somewhat squandered this past year.

  • Max Drome

    if Joaquin Pheonix doesn’t get nominated, i will call 911 coz i have just witnessed a crime.

  • Keegan

    Give The Master more of a chance. Joaquin Phoenix gave the performance of a life time, definitely the second best of the year (after Day-Lewis, who, as deserved, will win). Seymour Hoffman has surely secured a nomination and it wouldn’t surprise me if he wins. I think it will get a Best Picture nod. It won’t win because it’s too dark for the Academy, but really? Not even going to put in the alternates? Below Best Exotic Marigold Hotel? I don’t know. who knows, really? Great year in film, I guess these are just MY predictions. We’ll see how it turns out tomorrow when MacFarlane and, for NO reason, Emma Stone announce the nominations.

  • Stephen

    I know a lot of people wont agree with me, but Matthew Mcconaughey was incredible in Magic Mike. Im not saying he should win, but he should at least get some recognition.

  • SeanPhilly

    PICTURE
    Lincoln
    Zero Dark Thirty
    Les Miserables
    Argo
    Life of Pi
    Django Unchained
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    The Master

    DIRECTOR
    Steven Spielberg
    Kathryn Bigelow
    Ben Affleck
    Ang Lee
    Tom Hooper

    ACTOR
    Daniel Day-Lewis
    Denzel Washington
    Hugh Jackman
    Bradley Cooper
    Joaquin Phoenix

    ACTRESS
    Jessica Chastain
    Jennifer Lawrence
    Emmanuelle Riva
    Quvenzhane Walls
    Marion Cotillard

    SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Tommy Lee Jones
    Philip Seymour Hoffman
    Robert De Niro
    Leonardo DiCaprio
    Matthew McConaughey

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Anne Hathaway
    Amy Adams
    Sally Field
    Helen Hunt
    Maggie Smith

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
    Zero Dark Thirty
    Django Unchained
    The Master
    Moonrise Kingdom
    Looper

    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
    Lincoln
    Argo
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Life of Pi
    Beasts of the Southern Wild

    CINEMATOGRAPHY
    Life of Pi
    The Master
    Lincoln
    Skyfall
    The Dark Knight Rises

    EDITING
    Zero Dark Thirty
    Argo
    Lincoln
    Les Miserables
    The Dark Knight Rises

    • Guy Smiley

      Good picks, overall, though I am surprised to learn that TDKR was actually edited. Edited by an autistic eight-year old, maybe?

  • John

    I really don’t think anyone should be complaining about snubs this year. 2012 was an excellent year and there are way too many movies that could be nominated. There will be snubs in every category but you have to expect it.

    That being said, I’d love to see Skyfall get a Best Picture nom. It has no shot in hell winning and even though it’s my favorite movie of the year, I wouldn’t give it a Best Picture Oscar. I’d just love to see a James Bond film get a Best Picture nom. And a 23rd film in a franchise.

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  • Ugh at Zero Dark

    Why would anyone whose not an american wanna watch that snuff porno?

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