Here’s where things get interesting. Over that past few days we’ve been taking an early look at the 2013 Oscar race, running down the contenders in a number of categories including Best Supporting Actor and Actress, Best Actor and Best Actress, and Best Animated Feature, Screenplay, and technological category quick picks. We’ve now come to our final installment, Best Picture and Best Director, and these two races are shaping up to be incredibly interesting. Hit the jump for the full rundown.
First up, an update is in order. When we ran the first installment of our 2013 Oscar Preview, I mentioned that three major December releases had yet to screen for critics: Les Miserables, Zero Dark Thirty, and Django Unchained. Well as of today, that has changed. Les Miserables had its first two public screenings yesterday in New York City, one for the SAG Nominating Committee and one for press, and the film apparently blew the roof off (click here to read the reactions). Critics were over the moon for the pic, singling it out as a major contender in multiple categories, so we now have some confirmation that the film will be making waves come January.
Also, as a reminder, the Best Picture category will have anywhere between 5 and 10 nominees this year. There is only a set minimum and maximum, and the complicated nature of the rules and voting makes it incredibly hard to predict the exact number that will be contending for the trophy, so I really don’t know how many will make the cut.
Now, on to the fun stuff.
- Les Miserables
- Silver Linings Playbook
- Life of Pi
- The Master
- Zero Dark Thirty
- Django Unchained
- Beasts of the Southern Wild
- Moonrise Kingdom
- The Impossible
- The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
For Your Consideration:
Ladies and Gentlemen, we have ourselves a race. Unlike the last few years, there are now at least three films that have a very good chance of winning the Best Picture trophy at the Oscar ceremony in February, and it looks like we’ll be witness to a pretty intense fight to the finish line. Silver Linings Playbook is the crowdpleasing candidate (not unlike David O. Russell’s 2010 contender The Fighter), and it became the early frontrunner after its stellar debut at the Toronto Film Festival. Ben Affleck’s fantastic thriller Argo also screened at TIFF to a positive reception, and the film’s wildly positive reviews and impressive box office rocketed it to frontrunner status a few weeks ago, overtaking SLP.
Argo had a pretty commanding lead, that is until the President stepped in. Steven Spielberg’s spellbinding drama Lincoln opened to stellar reviews and audience enthusiasm two weeks ago and has since become the new favorite to win, putting Argo in a close second place. Making things interesting, though, is the fact that yet another frontrunner is threatening to best all three: Les Miserables. The film was already on everyone’s radar given that it marks director Tom Hooper’s follow-up to his Best Director and Best Picture win for the crowdpleasing drama The King’s Speech two years ago, and many were interested to see how the director would fare with such a beloved and epic musical adaptation.
Les Misereables literally just had its first screenings for critics, and early word is wildly positive. Many noted that the film has the goods to pick up a number of nominations: first-rate performances from the entire cast, stellar production design, a rousing finale, and lots and lots of emotion. Oh, and there’s that singing thing too. These reactions are only based on a couple of screenings so a lot will depend on how the rest of the critics and audiences react, but I have a feeling Les Mis could clean up come February. Not only does it have the potential for widespread critical praise, but it’s got the makings of a massive box office success.
Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook will still most definitely land a Best Picture nomination, but its frontrunner status has waned a bit. I expect it will be an audience favorite, but the competition is absolutely fierce this year and it may just be a bit too small to pull off the win.
Director Ang Lee’s visually stirring adaptation of Life of Pi is also a major contender, though its critical reception has been split between those who absolutely adore it and those who simply admire Lee’s filmmaking without emotionally connecting with the story. A lot will be riding on how well the film does with audiences, so I expect we’ll have a better idea of its chances once the opening weekend box office returns come in. That said, it’s a very safe bet that the film will land a Best Picture nomination.
Sitting just outside this batch of five is director Kathryn Bigelow’s highly anticipated drama about the hunt for Osama bin Laden, Zero Dark Thirty. The film is screening for critics this coming week, at which point we should have a much better idea of its status as a contender. The pic has been surrounded with buzz for months and many are already highlighting Jessica Chastain as a potential Best Actress frontrunner. Moreover, the film is Bigelow and screenwriter Mark Boal’s follow-up to The Hurt Locker, for which they won Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Picture, so expectations are riding high.
Another big question mark is Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained, though Tarantino has yet to make a bad film so odds are pretty good that Django will at least land a Best Picture nomination. This one will also be screening soon, and it’ll be interesting to see if its got the goods for the win or if a nomination will be its crowning achievement for the night. Again, we’ve had an embarrassment of riches with film in 2012, so it’ll really have to wow in order to move to the front of the pack.
Given the expanded nature of the Best Picture category, it’s now possible for smaller, larger, and/or more divisive films to slip into the list of nominees. This means that Paul Thomas Anderson’s polarizing drama The Master has a very decent shot at Best Picture, as does the Sundance indie Beasts of the Southern Wild. There are also nice odds for Wes Anderson’s wonderful Moonrise Kingdom landing a nomination, and don’t count out Michel Haneke’s Austrian drama Amour. The character drama Flight is less of a major player, but it’s definitely a possibility. Same goes for the tearjerker The Impossible, though its chances will likely be less solid if it fails to make a mark on the box office. And yes, we should also not count out The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, though I’m less optimistic about its awards prospects given the deep bench currently vying for a Best Picture slot.
For my For Your Consideration pick, I’m actually going with a film that has a fair chance at landing a nomination: Sam Mendes’ Skyfall. The Best Picture category is an honor bestowed on the very best that cinema has to offer in the calendar year, and I believe we would do well to remember that this is not a moniker that is exclusive to dramas. Director Sam Mendes crafted an absolutely thrilling Bond entry with Skyfall that was stacked with equal parts character development and spectacle, proving that when a group of film professionals at the top of their game work toward a specific vision, movie magic is possible. Skyfall is absolutely one of the best films of the year, and for my money it deserves consideration for the medium’s top prize.
- Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
- Ang Lee – Life of Pi
- Tom Hooper – Les Miserables
Likely to Be Nominated:
- Ben Affleck – Argo
- David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
- Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
- Paul Thomas Anderson – The Master
- Michael Haneke – Amour
- Peter Jackson – The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
- Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained
- Wes Anderson – Moonrise Kingdom
- Behn Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild
For Your Consideration:
- Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski, Tom Tykwer – Cloud Atlas
We’ve seen the Best Picture and Best Director trophies split plenty of times in years past, but for some reason this year feels like the two will go hand-in-hand. As such, our frontrunners for the Best Director category at this point in time include Steven Spielberg, Tom Hooper, and Ang Lee. Spielberg showed masterful restraint in his portrait of our nation’s 16th president with Lincoln, and the film really is a triumph of the collaboration between director, actor, and screenwriter. I wouldn’t be shocked if it pulled off a win in those three categories, and I expect The Beard will be in heavy play for a prospective third Best Director trophy.
Tom Hooper pulled off a rather disappointing upset a couple years back when he bested The Social Network’s David Fincher for the Best Director award, and he’s now got a very good chance of winning again. His musical adaptation of Les Miserables looks to be a mighty impressive piece of filmmaking, and if the film does indeed start cleaning up with critics groups and other awards, look for him to rise to the top of the pack as we head towards the Oscar ceremony in February.
This year’s “Dark Horse” frontrunner, if there is such a thing, would most certainly be Ang Lee. The Brokeback Mountain director brought the unfilmable novel Life of Pi to life in a big way, turning in an adaptation that is truly a visual masterwork. It’s no secret that Lee labored over this one for many years, and the Academy is likely to recognize his magnificent accomplishment with at least a Best Director nomination.
If I had told you ten years ago that Armageddon star Ben Affleck would once be a serious contender for the Best Director Oscar, you’d have laughed in my face. But alas, here we are in 2012 with Mr. Affleck: Oscar Hopeful. The guy has made three terrific films since launching his directing career with Gone Baby Gone, and Argo’s status as an Oscar frontrunner puts him right into the thick of the Best Director race. Affleck displayed tremendous talent with his ability to sustain a ridiculous amount of tension for nearly 40 minutes of screentime, balancing the rest of the film nicely with some well-placed humor and smaller character moments. I’m not sure this is his year to pull off the win, but it’s safe to say this isn’t the last time we’ll see Ben Affleck in the Oscar race as a director.
Given Silver Linings Playbook’s Best Picture frontrunner status, director David O. Russell also has a decent chance at pulling off a nomination. The same can be said of previous winner Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty and Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained, but again we’ll have a better idea of their chances once those films start screening. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Paul Thomas Anderson slip in for The Master or Michael Haneke land a nomination for Amour, though their shot at actually winning the trophy is rather slim. Pleasant surprises could come by way of Wes Anderson for Moonrise Kingdom or Behn Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild, but it’s an incredibly tough year so I’m not sure how likely they are to land a nomination.
Lana Wachowski, Andy Wachowski, and Tom Tykwer made one of the gutsiest moves in recent memory with their adaptation of Cloud Atlas, and for that reason I’m singling the trio out for my For Your Consideration pick. The Wachowskis and Tykwer pulled off a minor miracle by interweaving six seemingly unrelated stories set in six different timelines to emotionally affecting results, and they did so by pitting the same group of actors in a very wide range of different roles. The ambition on display in Cloud Atlas is staggering, and more often than not the film really, really works. We’re unlikely to see anything like this for a very long time, and the film’s success is owed to the vision and execution of Lana Wachowski, Andy Wachowski, and Tom Tykwer.
Well, that’s it folks. I’ve had fun running down this early look at the state of the Oscar race over the past few days, and I hope you’ve enjoyed reading along. As I’ve said many times, a lot can and will change in the next month and a half, so don’t be surprised to see a few shifts and additions as we move forward. Sound off in the comments below with your thoughts on the Best Picture and Best Director race, and I’d love to hear your own For Your Consideration picks as well.
Be sure to stay tuned to Collider for our continuing coverage of the Oscar race over the next three months. The nominations will be announced on January 10th, followed by the 85th Academy Awards on February 24th.