Well, folks, the time has finally come.  I’ve been covering this year’s awards season since last fall when we launched our awards column Oscar Beat, and after running through the ups and downs of the season thus far, it’s now time to predict which films, performances, screenplays, and other cinematic achievements from 2013 the Academy will choose to single out.  I feel very confident about some of my choices while others feel like more of a crapshoot.  One thing’s for sure: this has been quite an interesting season thus far, and there’s still no consensus with regards to some of the big winners.Hit the jump as I take a stab at predicting the 2014 Oscar nominees.  The nominations will be announced at 5:30am PST on January 16th.*Nomination predictions are listed in order of likelihood.12-years-a-slave-posterBEST PICTURE:12 Years a SlaveGravityAmerican HustleCaptain PhillipsNebraskaThe Wolf of Wall StreetSaving Mr. BanksDallas Buyers ClubHer Alternates: Philomena, Blue Jasmine, Inside Llewyn Davis As I’ve been saying for months, this year’s Best Picture race is incredibly competitive.  12 Years a Slave, Gravity, and American Hustle are all virtual locks and Captain Phillipsand Nebraska remain very safe bets, but the remaining candidates are tough to suss out. The Wolf of Wall Street has plenty of detractors, but it also has a passionate base so I think it gets in.  Despite mediocre reviews and iffy thematic suggestions with regards to artistic integrity, Saving Mr. Banks plays into the “Hollywood patting itself on the back” contingent, so I think it gets in as well.  Dallas Buyers Club has been a surprisingly strong candidate in the recent guild groups, so it has a very solid shot at landing a nomination.The Academy’s recent habit of singling out at least one “artsy” nominee (Amour, Tree of Life, Beasts of the Southern Wild) leads me to believe that Her will land a nomination, but there are some other strong candidates vying for a slot.  Philomenahas been playing extremely well to the Academy’s older voters, and though Blue Jasminehasn’t garnered the same enthusiasm that Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris, it does have fairly strong support.  Once considered a shoo-in for a nomination, Inside Llewyn Davis now feels like a dark horse candidate at best when you consider it was passed over by every single guild awards group.  There’s also the outside chance that Lee Daniels’ The Butler could enjoy a last minute surge, but The Weinstein Company seems much more focused on Philomena at this point, so I think that film has the best shot among TWC’s candidates.Though the rules state that there can be anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees for Best Picture, statistically speaking the Academy’s voting system makes it nearly impossible for that number to reach 10.  This year, I could see either 8 or 9 nominees making the cut, and I’m just going with my gut by predicting 9.gravity-alfonso-cuaronBEST DIRECTOR:Alfonso Cuaron – GravitySteve McQueen – 12 Years a SlaveDavid O. Russell – American HustlePaul Greengrass – Captain PhillipsSpike Jonze – HerAlternates: Alexander Payne (Nebraska), Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street), Jean-Marc Vallee (Dallas Buyers Club) Here’s another incredibly tough race.  One could say Cuaron, McQueen, and Russell are all but guaranteed to land Best Director nominations, but that’s what everyone said about Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow last year.  However, Gravity and 12 Years a Slave are such director-driven projects that I don’t see how Cuaron and McQueen don’t make the cut, and Russell found favor with the Academy for The Fighter and Silver Linings Playbook so he feels like a safe bet as well.  The final two slots are less certain, but Captain Phillips is a film that almost everyone admires and no one hates (the directing ain’t bad either), so I think Greengrass makes the cut.Though Alexander Payne and Martin Scorsese both have very strong shots at landing nominations, the Academy’s recent tendency to recognize more offbeat filmmakers (Michael Haneke for Amour, Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild) makes me think that Spike Jonze will land his second Best Director Oscar nomination for the brilliant Her.  However, I could also see a scenario in which Her gets a Best Picture nod without Best Director or vice versa.BEST ACTOR: Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a SlaveMatthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers ClubBruce Dern – Nebraskadallas-buyers-club-matthew-mcconaugheyTom Hanks – Captain PhillipsLeonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall StreetAlternates: Robert Redford (All Is Lost), Christian Bale (American Hustle), Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels’ The Butler) This is one of the hardest categories to predict this year, even though four of these five have been the frontrunners to land nominations for months.  Chiwetel Ejiofor and Bruce Dern seem to be the safest bets, while any one of the others could be supplanted with a number of alternates.  Leonardo DiCaprio gives quite possibly the best performance of his career in The Wolf of Wall Street, but the film has come under intense fire in recent weeks.  Christian Bale runs into a different problem with American Hustle, in that everyone seems to enjoy the film but you could line up five random viewers and they’d leave the film with five different opinions on who gave the best performance.  It’s a true ensemble piece, and it’s tough to draw a consensus around who’s giving a good performance and who’s a little off, which could work against Bale.Oscar Isaac gives a stellar performance in Inside Llewyn Davis but that film has, for some inexplicable reason, fallen flat with guild voters; Joaquin Phoenix is incredible in Her but the film might be considered too “weird”, and it’s been a long time since Lee Daniels’ The Butler was at the forefront of the awards conversation despite Forest Whitaker’s fine performance.Matthew McConaughey feels like he’s on a really strong streak, and it doesn’t hurt that he’s doing incredible work on television right now with True Detective—don’t be shocked if he takes this thing all the way to a win.Though Ejiofor, Dern, and Hanks all feel like relatively safe bets, Redford is quite vulnerable given that he failed to net a SAG or BAFTA nom. Following some bad press, DiCaprio seized the opportunity to speak to a number of outlets about Wolf and get people talking about something other than the film’s rating, nudity, or “endorsement” of its subject, and so I think DiCaprio slips in and takes Redford’s spot—by a hair.american-hustle-amy-adamsBEST ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett – Blue JasmineSandra Bullock – GravityJudi Dench – PhilomenaEmma Thompson – Saving Mr. BanksAmy Adams – American Hustle Alternates: Meryl Streep (August: Osage County), Brie Larson (Short Term 12), Adele Excarchopoulos (Blue Is the Warmest Color)Best Actress is this year’s over and done category, as Cate Blanchett seems to have this one in the bag for her transcendent work in Blue Jasmine.  The rest of the field also appears to be pretty set, as Sandra Bullock is poised to be recognized for carrying the majority of Gravity alone, Judi Dench will very likely land a nod for her charming work in Philomena, and despite the film’s negative response from critics, expect Emma Thompson to garner a nomination for her impressive work Saving Mr. Banks.The final slot is a bit of a toss-up.  It’s weird to think of Meryl Streep as an underdog, but the lukewarm response to August: Osage County—including many who weren’t fans of Streep’s performance—makes her vulnerable.  It might be a different story if Osage County was a hit at the box office, but as of the voting closing deadline the film was only playing at five screens.  As such, I think the American Hustle love will be spread to Amy Adams, though I’d be ecstatic to see Brie Larson or Adele Exarchopoulos pull a surprise nod for their fantastic work in Short Term 12 and Blue Is the Warmest Color, respectively.Click over to Page 2 to continue reading, including Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Score, and more.

Continue Reading for Best Supporting Actor, Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Score, Visual Effects, and More

the-wolf-of-wall-street-jonah-hill
Image via Paramount

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club

Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave

Daniel Brühl – Rush

Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips

Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street 

Alternates: Bradley Cooper (American Hustle), James Gandolfini (Enough Said), Will Forte (Nebraska) 

If Best Actress is the most wrapped-up race this year, Best Supporting Actor is a close second.  Jared Leto has been taking home trophies left and right for his stunning turn as a transgender AIDS patient in Dallas Buyers Club, and he’s the favorite to nab the Oscar as well.  After being snubbed for his lead performance in Shame, Michael Fassbender should be landing his first Oscar nomination for his terrifying turn in 12 Years a Slave, and newcomer Barkhad Abdi seems poised to land a nod for Captain Phillips.  Daniel Brühl was an early favorite to land a nomination after Rush premiered at TIFF in September, but the film’s lackluster box office led some to believe he might miss the cut.  A SAG nomination put Brühl back in the race, and he has a very decent shot at getting an Oscar nom as well.

Abdi and Brühl seem to be the most vulnerable candidates, and the final slot for Best Supporting Actor is pretty wide open.  If the Academy falls hard for American Hustle, it could mean Bradley Cooper’s second Oscar nomination, and if they’re feeling sentimental James Gandolfini could receive a very deserved posthumous nomination for Enough Said.  There’s also Dark Horse candidate Will Forte, but my money is on Jonah Hill for Wolf of Wall Street.  The actor previously received a nod for Moneyball, but Wolf is a better performance and Hill steals plenty of scenes opposite Leonardo DiCaprio.  On the rare occasion that the Academy decides to recognize comedy, it’s most often in the supporting categories, and I think it’ll happen this year with Hill and Wolf.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 

12-years-a-slave-lupita-nyongo
Image via Fox Searchlight

Lupita Nyong’O – 12 Years a Slave

Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle

June Squibb – Nebraska

Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Julia Roberts – August: Osage County 

Alternates: Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine), Margo Martindale (August: Osage County), Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)

Here’s another pretty tough race. Lupita Nyong’O and Jennifer Lawrence are near-locks for nominations for 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle, respectively, while 84-year-old June Squibb has a very good shot at a nomination for her scene-stealing work in Nebraska.  Oprah Winfrey has been a serious contender ever since Lee Daniels’ The Butler opened back in August, and I suspect her likeability will net her an Oscar nod; Julia Roberts nearly upstages the legendary Meryl Streep in August: Osage County, which alone makes her worthy of consideration.

There are a few other possibilities waiting in the wings, and since the supporting categories are where the surprises occur, I could see Sally Hawkins, Margo Martindale, or Octavia Spencer taking a spot that isn’t held by Nyong’O or Lawrence.  However, given that those three actresses are all overshadowed a bit by their co-stars, I’m inclined to go with Nyong’O, Lawrence, Squibb, Winfrey, and Roberts.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: 

Eric Singer, David O. Russell – American Hustle

Spike Jonze – Her

Joel & Ethan Coen – Inside Llewyn Davis

Bob Nelson – Nebraska

her-joaquin-phoenix
Image via Warner Bros.

Woody Allen – Blue Jasmine 

Alternates: Alfonso Cuaron, Jonas Cuaron (Gravity), Nicole Holofcener (Enough Said), Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack (Dallas Buyers Club)

The Best Original Screenplay category might very well be the only Oscar nomination that Joel and Ethan Coen’s brilliant Inside Llewyn Davis gets this year.  Best Picture heavyweight American Hustle is a solid bet, as is Spike Jonze’s brilliant Her.  Nebraska stands a solid chance at a nomination as well, as does Woody Allen for his sharp and dark Blue Jasmine.  Gravity has a slight chance at a nod, but those criticizing the script have been far more vocal than those supporting it, so I’m not sure it gets in here.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 

John Ridley – 12 Years a Slave

Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, & Richard Linklater – Before Midnight

Terence Winter – The Wolf of Wall Street

Billy Ray – Captain Phillips

Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope – Philomena 

Alternates: Tracy Letts (August: Osage County), Destin Cretton (Short Term 12), Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber (The Spectacular Now)

before-midnight-image

Best Adapted Screenplay is a bit tougher to feel out than Best Original Screenplay.  Again, the Best Picture heavyweight is a strong bet, so expect 12 Years a Slave to land a nod.  Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, and Richard Linklater scored a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination for Before Sunset, so I expect they’ll land another nomination for the excellent sequel, Before Midnight.  Though the film has certainly come under fire, Terence Winter nabbed a WGA nod for his Wolf of Wall Street script, so I think it gets in as well.  Billy Ray is very well liked in the filmmaking community, and his script for Captain Phillips is top notch, so he’s a genuine contender.  Finally, I think Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope will land a nod for Philomena, which is looking more and more like The Weinstein Company’s only big contender this year.

The alternates lineup is strong as well, and though Tracy Letts’ adaptation of his own play August: Osage County features brilliant dialogue, the lukewarm response to the film overall could work against him.  On a smaller scale, the well-received indies Short Term 12 and The Spectacular Now have a shot at landing a nomination, but the Academy has proved wary of recognizing anything too out of left field or “small” (see: Looper, The Perks of Being a Wallflower) so they will likely be overshadowed by the flashier candidates.

Note: As I’m not in personal contact with Academy voters like many Oscar prognosticators, it’s a bit tougher for me to predict some of the other Oscar categories.  That said, I’ve taken a stab at some of the larger ones, which you can peruse below.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: 

gravity-sandra-bullock-2

Emmanuel Lubezki – Gravity

Sean Bobbitt – 12 Years a Slave

Bruno Delbonnel – Inside Llewyn Davis

Phedon Papamichael – Nebraska

Barry Ackroyd – Captain Phillips 

Alternates: Roger Deakins (Prisoners), Philippe Le Sourd (The Grandmaster),Hoyte Van Hoytema (Her) 

BEST EDITING: 

Joe Walker – 12 Years a Slave

Alfonso Cuaron, Mark Sanger – Gravity

Christopher Rouse – Captain Phillips

Alan Baumgarten, Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers – American Hustle

Thelma Schoonmaker – The Wolf of Wall Street 

Alternates: Jeff Buchanan, Eric Zumbrunnen (Her), Kevin Tent (Nebraska), Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill (Rush) 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: 

Gravity

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Pacific Rim

World War Z

Iron Man 3

Alternates: Oblivion, Star Trek Into Darkness, The Lone Ranger

robert-redford-retires
Image via Roadside Attractions

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: 

Steven Price – Gravity

John Williams – The Book Thief

Hans Zimmer – 12 Years a Slave

Thomas Newman – Saving Mr. Banks

Alexander Ebert – All Is Lost 

Alternates: Randy Newman (Monsters University),Hans Zimmer (Rush), Henry Jackman (Captain Phillips) 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: 

“Let It Go” – Frozen

“Young and Beautiful” – The Great Gatsby

“The Moon Song” – Her

 “So You Know What It’s Like” – Short Term 12

“I See Fire” – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 

Alternates: “In the Middle of the Night” (Lee Daniels’ The Butler), “Happy” (Despicable Me 2), “Ordinary Love” (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom) 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM: 

Frozen

The Wind Rises

Monsters University

The Croods

Ernest & Celestine

Alternates: Despicable Me 2, Epic, Free Birds 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM: 

20 Feet from Stardom

The Act of Killing

Blackfish

Stories We Tell

The Square

Alternates: Tim’s Vermeer, God Loves Uganda, Dirty Wars

oscars-poster-ellen-degeneres