Introduction: Looking back at the predictions for July, some were very close (Trainwreck, Southpaw), while others were overestimated (Magic Mike XXLPaper Towns). The latter two prove that lightning doesn’t necessarily strike twice: audiences apparently only needed to see one male stripper outing, and people will not flock to see just any John Green novel adaptation.

Historically, August is the slowest month of the summer (and one of the slower of the year) and is typically a dumping ground for studios, particularly in the later weeks. While there have been exceptions to this rule, such as the massive hit The Bourne Ultimatum and last summer's Guardians of the Galaxy, this looks to be one of the lower grossing Augusts in recent memory.

Fantastic Four (August 7th – 20th Century Fox)

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Image via 20th Century Fox

Before the days of The Avengers and the Marvel Cinematic Universe, studios were looking for their own comic book franchise to match the success of Sam Raimi's Spider-Man films. One of these attempts was by Fox with two Fantastic Four films. Both films were successes at the box office but were met with poor critical reception.

Eight years have passed since the most recent installment in the franchise. While Fox was more patient than Sony was with their Spider-Man reboot, the abysmal first two Fantastic Four installments are still fairly fresh in moviegoers' minds. Fox has tried to combat this by taking a darker tone than other Marvel films and by casting four young actors whose stardom has risen significantly over the last couple of years, particularly Miles Teller (Whiplash) and Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station). Their presence has helped generate interest in the film, but unfortunately the marketing campaign has not differentiated itself from the rest of this summer’s offerings nearly as much as last August's breakout hit Guardians of the Galaxy did.

The Amazing Spider-Man grossed 78% of Spider-Man 3's final domestic gross. If Fantastic Four were to follow suit, it would gross $102.7 million, which has to be significantly lower than what Fox is hoping for. Fortunately, Fantastic Four looks much more appealing than The Amazing Spider-Man, but it still seems fated for the lower end of the superhero scale.

  • Opening Weekend: $45 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $75 million - $160 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $115 million

The Gift (August 7th – STX Entertainment)

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Image via STX Entertainment

The Gift marks the latest offering from horror producer Jason Blum. While it's refreshing to see him shifting more into the thriller genre, this one doesn't look destined to become one of his bigger hits. The talented actors present here (Jason BatemanRebecca HallJoel Edgerton, the last of whom also wrote and directed the film) can't help The Gift look anything but a generic stalker thriller.

Early reviews for the film have been surprisingly strong, though, which may help persuade thriller fans that are on the fence about seeing The Gift. Look for this to perform somewhere in between Paparazzi ($15.7 million) and Swimfan ($28.5 million), two other late summer/early fall stalker-themed films.

  • Opening Weekend: $7 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $10 million – $30 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $18 million

Ricki and the Flash (August 7th – Sony Pictures)

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Image via Sony Pictures

Ricki and the Flash sees three-time Academy Award winner Meryl Streep headlining her first film since Hope Springs, which was released on the same weekend almost exactly three years ago.

Streep has an incredibly strong track record with films released in the summer, the most successful of which include Mamma Mia!, The Devil Wears Prada, and Julie & Julia. However, a key difference between Ricki and the Flash and these three films is that they were based on existing properties and they also co-starred popular up-and-coming young actresses (Amanda Seyfried, Anne Hathaway, and Amy Adams, respectively).

Also, with the exception of outliers such as Pitch Perfect 2 and Walk the Line, comedies and dramas centered on music tend to have a ceiling of about $60 million. With a strong marketing campaign, Ricki and the Flash should get relatively close to this mark.

  • Opening Weekend: $18 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $35 million - $85 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $50 million

Shaun The Sheep Movie (August 7th - Lionsgate)

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Image via Lionsgate

A late addition to the August calendar, Shaun the Sheep Movie is based on the British animated series Shaun the Sheep, which is a spinoff of the popular Wallace and Gromit series. Aardman, the company behind Wallace and Gromit, has had a mixed track record with their releases in this country. While Chicken Run and Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit were very successful, the more recent Arthur Christmas and The Pirates! Band of Misfits were huge disappointments.

Though the film has received ecstatic reviews from critics so far, and the Wallace and Gromit series is still popular in the United States, Shaun the Sheep is relatively unknown to American audiences. Spinoffs tend to gross significantly less than their predecessors, ranging from Puss in Boots (62.5% of Shrek Forever After) to Penguins of Madagascar (38.5% of Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted). With a small marketing push, Shaun the Sheep Movie will likely gross less than half of The Curse of the Were-Rabbit’s $56.1 million take.

  • Opening Weekend: $7 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $10 million - $30 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $19 million

The Man from U.N.C.L.E. (August 14th – Warner Bros.)

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Image via Warner Bros.

Of the studios so far this summer, Warner Bros. has had the most mixed track record. For every success (San Andreas, Mad Max: Fury Road), there has been a big disappointment (Entourage, Magic Mike XXL). Unfortunately, The Man from U.N.C.L.E. will likely fit into the latter category.

While the three principal actors, Henry Cavill (Man of Steel), Arnie Hammer (The Social Network), and Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina), have all appeared in successful films, none are proven box office draws. The trailers and TV spots do a good job of highlighting Guy Richie’s unique style, but there’s nothing terribly compelling or intriguing about the material being presented.

The Man from U.N.C.L.E. evokes memories of 2013’s notorious bomb The Lone Ranger, which also starred Hammer. Both are period films based on television series that are relatively unknown to most current moviegoers. The Lone Ranger managed to gross nearly $90 million over 4th of July weekend and featured a huge star (Johnny Depp). Because The Man from U.N.C.L.E. cost a fraction of The Lone Ranger, it will likely avoid a major write-down for the studio. Still, with a muddled marketing campaign and a truly bizarre and alienating title (for those unfamiliar with the TV series), this should not get much past one-half of The Lone Ranger’s final gross.

  • Opening Weekend: $18 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $30 million - $90 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $44 million

Straight Outta Compton (August 14th - Universal)

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Image via Universal Pictures

Straight Outta Compton looks to continue Universal’s seemingly unbreakable winning streak at the box office. The biographical drama deals with the rise and fall of the N.W.A., undoubtedly one of the most influential and groundbreaking groups in the history of hip-hop. The reactions to the trailers have been incredibly positive, and Ice Cube and Dr. Dre, two of the original members of N.W.A., have been involved heavily in promoting the film.

There has been some controversy surrounding the film (Suge Knight’s hit-and-run incident), but this has likely only increased awareness of Straight Outta Compton. Six years ago, Notorious, the biopic of American rapper Notorious B.I.G., opened to $20.4 million, but burned out quickly and finished with $36.8 million. Straight Outta Compton seems guaranteed for a significantly larger opening, and will hopefully have stronger legs than Notorious. The film should fall on the higher end of music biopics, somewhere between Ray ($75.3 million) and Walk The Line ($119.5 million).

  • Opening Weekend: $35 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $50 million - $110 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $80 million

Underdogs (August 14th – The Weinstein Company)

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Image via The Weinstein Company

Originally released in Argentina in 2013, Underdogs is finally hitting U.S. cinemas. At $21 million, Underdogs is the most expensive Argentine film ever produced.

The above sentence is just about the most notable or interesting aspect of the film. The trailer starts out with some promise but devolves into childish stupidity when the actual concept is revealed (foosball players coming to life to play soccer against humans). Given the incredibly low awareness and lack of marketing so far, Underdogs seems unlikely to break out. Additionally, if Shaun The Sheep Movie over-performs it may steal family audiences away from Underdogs. Look for this to perform in line with last summer’s major animated bomb, Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return ($8.4 million).

  • Opening Weekend: $5 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $6 million - $20 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $9 million

Hitman: Agent 47 (August 21st – 20th Century Fox)

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Image 20th Century Fox

Based on the popular video game, Hitman first hit the big screen in 2007 with Timothy Olyphant in the titular role. While the film did decent business at the time of its release ($39.6 million), it was heavily panned by critics and audiences alike.

Now, Hitman is back with a new lead actor (Rupert Friend) playing the popular character. Friend has gained some notoriety for his role on Homeland, but the actor does not seem to have a lot of drawing power. The trailers have displayed some eye-catching visuals, and the video games are still very popular. However, given the limited potential of the release date, as well as the incredibly low ceiling for most video game adaptations, this will likely not match its predecessor.

  • Opening Weekend: $13 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $20 million - $45 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $30 million

American Ultra (August 21st - Lionsgate)

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Image via Lionsgate

During the last two weeks of August, it is almost unheard of for a movie to open above $20 million. While American Ultra will likely not be breaking this trend, it does have a few factors working in its favor. The trailers have been very well received, and it doesn't face any competition for comedies until Kitchen Sink arrives two weeks later. It also doesn't hurt that Jesse Eisenberg has been getting some good exposure in the widely seen Comic-Con trailer for next year's Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice.

A good comparison for American Ultra is 2008's Pineapple ExpressPineapple Express was also released in August and featured two stoners that are forced to go on the run. While Jesse Eisenberg and Kristen Stewart are both appealing actors who have been in successful films, they can't really compete with the pairing of Seth Rogen and James Franco, who were at the height of their popularity when Pineapple Express was released. The final gross for American Ultra will likely end up closer to Eisenberg's prior stoner comedy 30 Minutes or Less ($37.0 million).

  • Opening Weekend: $15 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $20 million - $60 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $45 million

Sinister 2 (August 28th – Focus Features)

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Image via Focus Features

The original Sinister opened in October of 2012 to a surprisingly strong $18.0 million and ended up with $48.0 million. It is still well-regarded today as being very scary and a strong addition to Jason Blum's library of work.

Unlike The Gift, Sinister 2 looks absolutely terrifying and seems to up the ante on its predecessor with more creative (and disturbing) deaths, and also features the return of a major supporting character. However, the concept doesn't feel quite as fresh this time around, and given the late August release date, this seems unlikely to match Sinister's gross. Still, given the strong trailers and the first film’s popularity, Sinister 2 should be in line for a decent opening weekend.

  • Opening Weekend: $17 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $25 million - $50 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $38 million

We Are Your Friends (August 28th – Warner Bros.)

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Image via Warner Bros.

We Are Your Friends sees Zac Efron hitting the big screen for the first time since last summer's enormous hit NeighborsWe Are Your Friends has Efron in one of his more mature roles as a 23-year-old aspiring DJ living in the San Fernando Valley above Los Angeles.

While Neighbors and Efron both remain popular, We Are Your Friends faces an uphill battle to find audiences. The trailers have been appealing, but the plot filled with DJs and electronic dance music will likely appeal to more of a niche market. It is also targeting the 18-24 year old demographic, which is far less likely to come out for a drama than a comedy. Emily Ratajkowski's presence may help bring in young males, but more than likely this will not draw large crowds.

  • Opening Weekend: $11 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $18 million - $40 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $25 million

Regression (August 28th – The Weinstein Company)

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Image via The Weinstein Company

In terms of quality, Regression looks like it has a lot of potential, especially considering the talent in front of the camera (Ethan HawkeEmma Watson) and behind it (Alejandro Amenabar). Instead of relying on jump scares, the trailer creates dread through Ethan Hawke's character as he delves deep into what looks like a truly bizarre case, and as the forces that are pursuing Emma Watson begin to target him as well.

Unfortunately, the film has very limited potential commercially. The biggest reason for this is in the last couple of weeks, Sinister 2 moved back a weekend, which now seems likely to steal away most horror/thriller fans from Regression. Regression will likely do similar business to past late-August thrillers such as As Above/So Below and Don't Be Afraid of the Dark.

  • Opening Weekend: $7 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $10 million - $25 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $18 million

Studio Predictions for August

After having dominated the last two months, it looks as though Universal will finally be handing over the crown to a different studio for August. Because it is the only studio releasing a film this month that has real potential to become a blockbuster, Fox will likely be winning August with Fantastic Four. A little help from Hitman: Agent 47 wouldn’t hurt, but the superhero film should do enough business to make Fox come out on top.