While it’s hard to call any film that opens above $100 million an under performance, the idea that the final installment of the Hunger Games franchise may not finish above $300 million domestically is slightly disappointing. In addition, Spectre is now poised to have a larger than predicted drop from Skyfall, and The Good Dinosaur had the worst opening weekend for a Pixar film since A Bug’s Life in 1998, though it looks like it will hold up well over the coming weeks. While many popular brands and franchises grossed much less than predicted, the surprise success story of November appears to be Creed, which has been met with near universal acclaim and much box office love.

Looking ahead to December, this month looks somewhat typical for this time of year in the sense that it’s overcrowded and filled with a few potential blockbusters, family-targeted films, and awards hopefuls. One thing that separates this particular December is the release of the latest installment of a franchise that dates back nearly four decades and that is being met with an unprecedented amount of hype and anticipation. Look for many records to fall starting December 18th.

Krampus (December 4 - Universal)

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Image via Universal

The first weekend of December is historically a dumping ground for Hollywood as it is just after the typically very lucrative Thanksgiving holiday and before the awards season films are released. In the last five years, a new wide release has not exceeded $7 million in its opening weekend, including the star-studded Out of the Furnace and Killing Them Softly.

Krampus may reverse this opening weekend trend, but it does not look to break out in any real significant way. Horror comedies are an incredibly tough sell (though judging from the previews there looks to be much more horror than comedy here), and what typically helps elevate them is a great cast (Zombieland). No offense to Toni Collette, Adam Scott, or David Koechner, but it’s hard to compete with the likes of Woody Harrelson, Jesse Eisenberg, and Emma Stone.

In addition, even if Krampus was completely straight-faced, Christmas-themed horror films have never been terribly popular at the box office. While it’s by no means an apples-to-apples comparison, the most recent example of this appears to be the remake of Black Christmas, released on Christmas Day in 2006. That film grossed $16.2 million after being released in 1,544 theaters. Considering that Krampus is being released in almost double the number of theaters, it should fare a bit better.

  • Opening Weekend: $8 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $15 million - $25 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $19 million

The Big Short (December 11 (Limited), December 21 (Wide) – Paramount)

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Image via Paramount Pictures

A late addition to the December calendar, The Big Short appears to be Paramount's addition to the awards race this season. The film is based on the hugely popular book by Michael Lewis and features one of the best ensembles in recent memory that includes Christian Bale, Steve Carell, Ryan Gosling, and Brad Pitt.

Paramount is likely hoping to attract the same holiday audiences that they drew in for The Wolf of Wall Street two years ago. Adam McKay does not have the same drawing power as Martin Scorsese, however, and the trailers for The Big Short lack the exciting hedonistic sense of fun that made The Wolf of Wall Street stand out.

While it may not pull in quite the same numbers as Wolf, The Big Short is getting early strong reviews, and should fare well among its competition, especially if Golden Globe and Oscar nominations are in its future. Look for this to end right around Brad Pitt’s Moneyball, also an awards contender that was based on a popular book by Lewis.

  • Opening Week (December 28 – January 3): $30 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $60 million - $125 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $95 million

In The Heart Of The Sea (December 11 – Warner Bros.)

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Image via Warner Bros.

In The Heart of the Sea finally arrives after being bumped from its original March release. The film, based on the sinking of the Essex in 1820 (the event that also inspired Moby Dick), has had several trailers that feature some impressive visual effects and evoke memories of Cast Away (albeit with a larger group of people stranded on an island). Unfortunately, it seems unlikely to replicate the success of that film.

Though its direct target audience skews older than Star Wars, it doesn't help that it is opening the weekend before the film that is poised to break several box office records. Also, as seen in the domestic performance of the underrated Rush (also directed by Ron Howard), star Chris Hemsworth does not always translate into box office dollars when outside his Thor costume.

A lot of this film's success depends on whether it's actually good. Given Ron Howard's track record, it's a relatively safe bet that it is at the very least a decent film, but it may have a tough time breaking out during a crowded awards season. Look for this to perform roughly in line with last December’s epic Exodus: Gods and Kings, if not a bit higher.

  • Opening Weekend: $24 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $60 million - $125 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $72 million

Legend (December 11 (Wide) – Universal)

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Tom Hardy is arguably one of the most talented actors working in the film industry today, and seeing him in a dual role is an exciting prospect. This makes it all the more disappointing that it looks as though Legend seems doomed to get lost in the shuffle this December.

Unfortunately, reviews for Legend have been mixed, and most critics have agreed that the rest of the film can’t measure up to Hardy’s powerful performance(s). With not so great reviews, moviegoers will likely turn their attention to The Big Short, Joy, and other films that have been receiving significant awards buzz. The film had a decent per-screen average in its first weekend of limited release ($21,709), but that figure does not inspire a lot of confidence for the wide rollout.

Also, while Hardy has been a significant part of several films that have performed well at the box office (The Dark Knight Rises, Mad Max: Fury Road), many of his solo outings have struggled (The Drop, Child 44). Now that marketing for The Revenant is ramping up, it feels as though most Hardy fans will save their money to see him in that. This should end up right around the gross of The Drop, if not a bit lower.

  • Opening Weekend (wide): $4 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $6 million - $15 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $10 million

Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip (December 18 – Fox)

The original Alvin and the Chipmunks film was released in 2009 and grossed a massive $217.3 million. Its sequel, released two years later, continued the franchise's success with $219.6 million. Unsurprisingly, a third film followed but with much less success, and fell almost 40% from its predecessor to a $133.1 million gross.

Normally when a sequel falls from its predecessor by such a wide margin, any additional plans for the franchise are scrapped and the property is maybe rebooted several years down the line. Instead, the awful titular puns continue with The Road Chip, which is being released four years after its predecessor.

A 40% drop from the third film would result in roughly an $80 million gross. The most likely audience for this film is going to be families with children that are too young to see Star Wars. While family films tend to thrive during this period, any goodwill left from this franchise has likely suffered from too many sequels and too long a gap between The Road Chip and its predecessor.

  • Opening Weekend: $22 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $40 million - $80 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $65 million

Sisters (December 18 – Universal)

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Image via Universal

The last time comedy heavyweights Tina Fey and Amy Poheler appeared in a film together was 2008's Baby Mama, which received mixed reviews but rode the chemistry of its leads to $60.4 million. Since then, the pair's popularity has grown significantly due to 30 Rock, Parks & Recreation, and their hosting the Golden Globes.

The weekend of December 18, 2015 feels reminiscent of July 18, 2008, when The Dark Knight and Mamma Mia! opened together. The former film opened to a then record setting $158.4 million, while the latter served as effective counter-programming to draw in female audiences and grossed $27.7 million. Mamma Mia! had the advantage of being based on a hugely popular musical, so it would be unrealistic for Sisters to match that.

Still, the two stars have a very loyal following, and R-rated comedies targeted at female audiences should not be underestimated (look no further than Bridesmaids or The Heat). It may not reach the heights of those two films, but this should turn a nice profit for Universal.

  • Opening Weekend: $20 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $60 million - $125 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $100 million

Star Wars: The Force Awakens (December 18 – Disney)

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Image via Lucasfilm

There is one key difference between The Force Awakens and the two highest grossing films of all time: neither Avatar nor Titanic had an established fan base. While some might think this would indicate a higher gross for The Force Awakens, there are plenty of non Star Wars fans out there who won't give it a chance, while casual moviegoers didn’t have a reason to turn down seeing Avatar or Titanic.

The above is the only thing I can say that is not working in the film's favor. All three trailers released for the film have met with incredible enthusiasm, and marketing seems to have struck the perfect balance between creating hype and preserving surprises. J.J. Abrams and the filmmakers made the incredibly smart decision to include the previous generation of Star Wars leads (Mark Hamill, Harrison Ford, Carrie Fisher) to introduce the new characters and bring in older audiences.

Although Abrams and producer Kathleen Kennedy originally wanted to unleash The Force Awakens in summer 2016, a holiday release actually makes more sense from a financial standpoint given the cross-generational appeal and the huge number of families flooding theaters over Christmas (it also appeased Disney stockholders looking at the 2015 returns). As the release date approaches, Disney has been flooding the marketplace with TV spots, posters and many other means of marketing to add to the already high awareness for what is likely the most anticipated release in the last decade.

The current opening weekend record for a December film is The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey at $84.6 million. The overall opening weekend record belongs to this past June's Jurassic World with $208.8 million. The Force Awakens will obliterate The Hobbit's record and Jurassic World's figure seems to be within reach, especially given that the film has already grossed more than $50 million in advance ticket sales. If the film turns out to be as good as its marketing would suggest, a place among the highest grossing films of all time is highly likely.

  • Opening Weekend: $235 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $600 million - $800 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $675 million

Point Break (December 25 – Warner Bros.)

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Image via Warner Bros.

The original Point Break was released in 1991 to mild box office success and is well-regarded today as being one of Keanu Reeves's best action films. So Warner Bros' decision to update the film is somewhat odd, and this new Point Break joins the latest in the wave of late 80s / early 90s R-rated action remakes (Total Recall, Robocop) dumbed down to PG-13. Both of those films were regarded as box office disappointments, and it seems likely that Point Break will join them in that category.

Despite some impressive visuals, the trailers for the most part have been poorly received and have been compared to a Fast and Furious ripoff, which is ironic considering the first film in that series felt in many ways like a remake of the original Point Break. This type of film being released during the holiday season could actually serve as great counter programming against the awards hopefuls during any other year. This year, however, any audiences seeking an action/adventure film will likely turn their attention to Star Wars, opening only one week earlier.

Total Recall (2012) grossed $58.8 million and Robocop (2014) ended its run with $58.6 million. Films opening around this time of year tend to have smaller openings and great legs, which seems like a possibility if Point Break turns out to be good. Still, it seems unlikely that Point Break will get much past the grosses of its fellow remakes.

  • Opening Weekend: $15 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $35 million - $70 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $55 million

Joy (December 25 – Fox)

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Image via 20th Century Fox

Joy marks the third collaboration between director David O. Russell and star Jennifer Lawrence after Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle. While a biopic about the inventor of the Miracle Mop may seem like an odd choice for Russell, it actually seems to fit well in his wheelhouse: it's a period film based on a true story that features a strong female lead.

The film has a fantastic supporting cast that includes David O. Russell veterans Bradley Cooper and Robert de Niro. Lawrence remains one of most popular actresses working in the business today, and her being named Entertainment Weekly's 'Entertainer of the Year' definitely doesn't hurt. Early word on the film has been unsurprisingly positive, and Academy Awards talk has already begun. While it may not reach the heights of American Hustle, Joy will likely continue Russell’s winning streak.

  • Opening Weekend: $28 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $80 million - $130 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $110 million

Concussion (December 25 – Sony)

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Image via Sony Pictures

Despite the underwhelming box office grosses of Focus and After Earth, Will Smith is still undoubtedly one of the biggest movie stars working today. Concussion is based on Jeanne Marie Laskas's book of the same name, about the efforts of Dr. Bennet Omalu to expose the presence of CTE (chronic traumatic encephalopathy) in NFL players.

Unsurprisingly, Smith seems to have given his all to this role, complete with Omalu's Nigerian accent. The heavy dramatic tone on display here does in some ways evoke memories of Seven Pounds, a past December release also starring Smith that was a modest financial success but a critical bomb. While the true story angle and controversy will certainly help Concussion, reviews for the film so far have been mixed, with some critics deeming it "Oscar bait".

Seven Pounds managed to gross $69.9 million despite a 27% critics rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Given the heavy competition this awards season, Concussion seems likely to end up with a lower gross.

  • Opening Weekend: $13 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $40 million - $80 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $50 million

The Hateful Eight (The Weinstein Company – December 25)

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Image via The Weinstein Company

A violent period film that takes place largely in a cabin in the middle of winter released on Christmas Day sounds like a box office disaster, unless it’s directed by Quentin Tarantino.

The Hateful Eight appears to have all of the staples of a Tarantino film: snappy dialogue, extreme violence, and an ensemble cast that includes Samuel L. Jackson. Tarantino's last effort, Django Unchained, was released on Christmas Day three years ago, and became his highest grossing film with $162.8 million. The Hateful Eight's single location makes it seem a bit less exciting than Django, and it also lacks the love story that made that film more appealing to wider audiences. Also, no offense to the cast of The Hateful Eight (Kurt Russell, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Tim Roth), but it's hard to compete with a lineup that includes Jamie Foxx, Leonardo Dicaprio, and Christoph Waltz.

Despite this, the film's trailers do look very appealing and the mystery element ("someone is not who he says he is") also invokes lots of promise. It likely won't be hitting the heights of Django, but Tarantino's eighth film will likely be a strong hit for The Weinstein Company.

  • Opening Weekend: $30 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $75 million - $125 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $110 million

Daddy’s Home (December 25 – Paramount)

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Image via Paramount

The pairing of Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg won fans over with 2009's The Other Guys, which grossed $119.2 million. Both stars have had a few disappointments in the last couple of years, but for the most part they both remain quite popular. The premise of the two as father and stepfather competing for the children’s attention is broadly appealing, and the trailers have quite a few funny segments.

Though Daddy’s Home seems to primarily target male comedic audiences, it may be hurt by Sisters if Sisters were to over perform. However, there should be enough room for both films to find audiences, and neither faces any additional competition for comedies until Ride Along 2 arrives three weeks later. Though a release date in the summer is arguably a better fit for this type of comedy, a gross around Ferrell’s The Campaign seems likely.

  • Opening Weekend: $23 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $60 million - $125 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $90 million