2016’s domestic box office went out with a bang, as audiences and families unsurprisingly flocked to the multiplexes for some holiday entertainment. Star Wars: Rogue One and Sing hogged the majority of the cash flow, and are poised to continue to do big business into January. Passengers and Why Him?, however, failed to live up to expectations. Speaking of Rogue One, that film pushed Disney past a record $7 billion at the worldwide box office, capping off a stellar year for the studio.
Looking ahead, this January is one of the more crowded in recent memory, with a whopping 17 films receiving wide releases. The oversaturated market means that many films are likely to cannibalize each other’s potential audiences, leaving limited room for releases to break out. However, there should be a few bright spots, as A Dog’s Purpose, Patriots Day, and Split appear poised to do solid business.
Hidden Figures – January 6 (Fox)
A late addition to the awards race, Hidden Figures tells the true story of a group of African American mathematicians who calculated crucial flight trajectories for Project Mercury and the Apollo 11 flight to the moon in 1969, helping NASA win the Space Race. The film is based on the recent nonfiction book by Margot Lee Shetterly.
Although the film didn’t receive a ton of love at the Golden Globes (nods only for Original Score and Octavia Spencer for Best Supporting Actress), Hidden Figures has a strong possibility for a Best Picture nod when the Oscar nominations are announced. It has also received fantastic reviews, currently at a 92% on Rotten Tomatoes), and the initial per-screen average from its limited release ($20,620) indicates a strong road ahead.
Recent films dealing with NASA/astronauts have had a strong track record at the box office, with The Martian, Interstellar, and Gravity all grossing well above $150 million each domestically. However, those films took place largely in space, while most of Hidden Figures looks to be set at NASA’s headquarters. Though the film’s trailer also has that “did I just see the entire film?” feel to it, a gross close to that of director Theodore Melfi’s last feature, St. Vincent ($44.1 million) should be within reach.
- Opening Weekend: $13 million
- Projected Gross Range: $30 million - $60 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $45 million
A Monster Calls – January 6 (Focus Features)
In a winter full of potential tearjerkers, A Monster Calls appears to be one of the most devastating entries, receiving rave reception out of its premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival, with countless people exclaiming that they bawled as a result of the film. It makes sense, as the film centers on a young boy dealing with the terminal illness of his mother and attacks by the school bully.
The film’s trailers describe this boy (newcomer Lewis MacDougall) as being too old to be a kid and too young to be a man, a trait which also points out a factor that could hinder A Monster Calls’s box office prospects. The titular Monster is a bit terrifying (especially when its eyes glow) and the film deals with a parent’s terminal illness, leading one to think that this may be far too mature for children, but perhaps also too childish for adults.
These same trailers, however, showcase the film’s original story, stellar cast (Sigourney Weaver, Felicity Jones, and the voice of Liam Neeson), and spectacular visuals, which together give A Monster Calls a truly unique look that helps separate it from everything else currently in theaters. Among the recent crop of more mature young-adult adaptations, this film may end up with a gross close to 2014’s The Giver ($45.0 million).
- Opening Weekend: $9 million
- Projected Final Gross: $20 million - $50 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $35 million
Underworld: Blood Wars – January 6 (Sony)
Underworld is one of the rare franchises that actually had an increased audience between the third and fourth installments, no doubt due in large part to the return of star Kate Beckinsale. After a 6-year absence from the series, Beckinsale starred in 2012's Underworld: Awakening, which grossed a franchise high $62.3 million (and another $97.7 million overseas).
As is the case with many action/sci-fi sequels, foreign grosses can more than make up for any declining domestic returns, which means that Underworld: Blood Wars does not need to make as much as its predecessor in North America to be considered a success. Given a number of factors, this seems like a plausible result for the fifth installment of the R-rated series.
Blood Wars features Beckinsale's vampire Selene continuing to fight the war against the werewolves and stop them stealing (as you may have guessed) hers and her daughter's blood. The trailers feature mostly identical elements to the prior installments, which will surely please fans of the franchise but is unlikely to produce many converts. In addition, Awakening was undoubtedly boosted by the popularity of 3D at the time, and the format has significantly cooled off in the last five years.
For the last three years, the first weekend of January has featured the release of a horror film, ranging from The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death ($26.5 million) to The Devil Inside ($53.2 million). Blood Wars should get to the higher end of this range, but seems likely to come in lower than past installments of the series.
- Opening Weekend: $21 million
- Projected Gross Range: $30 million - $60 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $47 million
The Bye Bye Man – January 13 (STX Entertainment)
2016 was one of the best years for horror films in some time, both in terms of quality and at the box office. It's tough to say yet whether The Bye Bye Man will get 2017 off to the right start for horror, but it at the very least has this going for it: there is something undeniably creepy about seeing a ghost or demon (or whatever The Bye Bye Man is) in photographs with living people, which the film's trailer has in spades, along with several other effective scares involving the menacing titular antagonist.
It also doesn't hurt that The Bye Bye Man carries a PG-13 rating, which will help drive in key horror audiences. One thing that may hurt the film however is its tough competition. Though they are technically different sub-genres of horror, Split has all the makings of a hit, which may dramatically decrease The Bye Bye Man's ticket sales after its opening weekend.
If the film turns out to be as good as its trailers would seem to indicate, this may end up getting to close to recent mid-January horror hits and STX’s first horror film, The Boy ($35.8 million).
- Opening Weekend: $12 million
- Projected Gross Range: $15 million - $40 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $31 million
Live By Night – January 13 (Warner Bros.)
Few directors have a track record as impressive as Ben Affleck’s. His first two films, Gone Baby Gone and The Town, were released to critical and commercial acclaim, and his third film, Argo, grossed $136.0 million and went on to win three Oscars, including Best Picture.
Live By Night, Affleck’s second Dennis Lehane adaptation, stars Affleck as a war veteran turned gangster during the Prohibition era. The film’s trailers show off a great deal of action and gorgeous cinematography, showcasing Live By Night’s period setting. Like Affleck’s past directorial efforts, Live By Night also has a strong supporting cast. This one includes Sienna Miller, Zoe Saldana, Chris Cooper, and Elle Fanning.
Unlike Affleck’s other films, Live By Night has been receiving surprisingly lukewarm critical reception. Its score on Rotten Tomatoes currently sits at 35%, with reviewers criticizing Affleck’s reliance on familiar themes and plot points. As an actor, however, Affleck is still a major draw, as evidenced by October’s The Accountant, which also received mixed reviews but grossed $85.4 million. Live By Night is being released in a more competitive period, but it should still manage to be a hit for Warner Bros.
- Opening Weekend: $15 million
- Projected Gross Range: $35 million - $70 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $52 million
Monster Trucks – January 13 (Paramount)
This just may be a first: back in September, Paramount announced a $115 million write down related to the “expected performance on an unreleased film”. Although the studio has not specified which film has directly caused the write down, all eyes seem to be on the expensive Monster Trucks, which indeed has all the makings of 2017’s first major box office bomb.
Monster Trucks has been sitting on the shelf since 2015, and has changed release dates three different times, which is never a good sign for a big budget studio film. The film’s premise, conceived by Adam Goodman (former Paramount film group president) and his 4-year-old son, seems largely unappealing to adults (and may have better suited to an animated feature), which is a key factor in selling a family film. The first reviews have also been largely unkind, which will also not help turn around adults who are already on the fence about buying tickets.
Given that the studio has already taken a large write-down, it seems unlikely that they will be contributing much marketing spend to Monster Trucks. If that turns out to be the case, this may even come in below notorious 2011 bomb Mars Needs Moms, which closed with just $21.3 million.
- Opening Weekend: $6 million
- Projected Gross Range: $8 million - $20 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $14 million
Patriots Day – January 13 (Lionsgate)
Based on the 2013 Boston Marathon bombings and ensuing manhunt, Patriots Day is the second 2016 film from director and star duo Peter Berg and Mark Wahlberg. The first film in question was the excellent and hugely under-seen Deepwater Horizon, which ended its run with $61.4 million. This may seem like a fine result, but its $110 million budget indicates that it was likely a disappointment for Lionsgate.
At the time of Deepwater Horizon’s release, many box office analysts pointed out that films based on recent real-life tragedies tend to struggle to find broad audiences, with United 93 ($31.4 million) and Munich ($47.4 million) cited as examples. Like the aforementioned films, Patriots Day chronicles an event that most Americans remember quite well, which may hit too close to home for some, especially those who lived in Boston and the surrounding areas at the time of the attack.
Working in the film’s favor, however, are strong reviews (currently at a 78% on Rotten Tomatoes), with many critics raving that the film is a stirring tribute to the bravery and commitment of the law enforcement personnel, firefighters, and bystanders who sprung into action during the aftermath of the bombings. Patriots Day is also in many awards pundits’ conversations for a Best Picture nomination, and the film’s limited opening weekend ($23,044 per-screen average) suggests high levels of interest. Add in the film’s strong supporting cast, which includes J.K. Simmons, John Goodman, Michelle Monaghan, and Kevin Bacon, and Patriots Day should have no trouble matching Deepwater Horizon. This would be a fine result, as Patriots Day was much less expensive.
- Opening Weekend: $20 million
- Projected Gross Range: $35 million - $75 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $67 million
Silence – January 13 (Paramount)
Martin Scorsese has been trying to get Silence off the ground for a reported twenty-five years—a film that follows two Jesuit priests (Andrew Garfield and Adam Driver) searching for their missing mentor (Liam Neeson) and spreading Catholicism. The finished result appears to have been worth the wait: the trailers show off Silence’s stunning cinematography and rich story, and the film is receiving a great deal of Oscar buzz (in addition to an 89% on Rotten Tomatoes).
However, it is not terribly surprising that Scorsese had a tough time getting Silence made. A nearly three-hour-long film that features reportedly brutal torture scenes is an incredibly tough sell to mainstream audiences. Epics of this nature tend to yield strong box office results when they are based on a real event (Titanic, The Wolf of Wall Street), or if they are based on a popular novel (The Lord of the Rings). While Silence (the novel) is still well regarded today, it has nowhere near the rabid fan base as the aforementioned Middle Earth trilogy.
The film has however received a strong showing for its limited release ($32,720 per screen average), and in the event of a few Oscar nominations, could ride word of mouth to a sizeable audience. A gross around that of Paramount’s recent Allied ($39.6 million) could be within reach.
- Opening Weekend: $7 million
- Projected Gross Range: $25 million - $50 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $36 million
Sleepless – January 13 (Open Road Films)
With a few recent exceptions, versatile actor Jamie Foxx over the last decade has largely appeared in serious dramas and comedies. As he has shown in Django Unchained and Collateral, Foxx is also a strong presence in action films, making his return to the genre in Sleepless a refreshing change of pace.
Unfortunately, Foxx’s starring role is just about the most notable element of Sleepless, which otherwise looks to be a by-the-numbers action film. Sleepless features a cop (Foxx) infiltrating a group of drug dealers, who retaliate by kidnapping Foxx’s son, leading him to begin operating outside the bounds of the law.
It doesn’t feel like an accident that Sleepless is occupying the same release date as that of Taken seven years ago, in which Liam Neeson punches sex traffickers in an attempt to rescue his kidnapped daughter. That film was a bit of an outlier in the genre, as it went on to gross a remarkable $145.0 million and spawn two sequels. The plot and look of the film recall less successful past kidnapping dramas, such as Proof of Life ($32.5 million). Given the tough competition for action audiences this month, Sleepless looks to end up on the lower end of these films.
- Opening Weekend: $8 million
- Projected Gross Range: $20 million - $40 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $23 million
The Resurrection of Gavin Stone – January 20 (High Top Releasing)
The Resurrection of Gavin Stone marks the first faith-based film of 2017. Though the premise of a down-on-his-luck child star working towards redemption is an admirable one, The Resurrection of Gavin Stone appears to have limited commercial prospects.
This seems like a film that would have benefited greatly from a well-known lead actor. No offense to Brett Dalton, but he has yet to be proven a draw for mainstream audiences. In addition, this is one of the more crowded months in recent memory, and Resurrection seems likely to get lost in the shuffle.
Though there have been a number of exceptions, faith-based films without well- known casts have struggled at the box office, particularly those released in January. An exact theater count is not yet available, but assuming it’s hovering around the 1,000-1,500 range, this should end up around 2015’s 90 Minutes in Heaven ($4.8 million).
- Opening Weekend: $2 million
- Projected Gross Range: $3 million - $10 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $5 million
The Founder – January 20 (The Weinstein Company)
As the star of the last two Best Picture winners, it's safe to say that Michael Keaton is very much back in the limelight of Hollywood's most in-demand actors. As was the case with Spotlight, Keaton again plays a real-life character in The Founder, this time as Ray Kroc, who took the original McDonald's family restaurant and turned it into the massive fast food franchise that spans 119 countries.
Awards season has proven a successful time for films featuring eccentric business owners/founders. There Will Be Blood opened in limited release and went on to gross $40.2 million, and The Social Network finished with $96.9 million. However, competition for Oscar nominations this year feels much fiercer than in the past, and unfortunately buzz around The Founder has for the most part been quiet.
Despite this, positive reviews (80% so far on Rotten Tomatoes) and Keaton's popularity should spell decent business for The Founder. The film should at least get close to screenwriter Robert D. Siegel’s The Wrestler ($26.2 million).
- Opening Weekend: $8 million
- Projected Gross Range: $15 million - $45 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $29 million
Split – January 20 (Universal)
Though he had the misfortune of becoming Hollywood's punching bag after The Happening, The Last Airbender, and After Earth, M. Night Shyamalan returned to his horror/thriller roots with last year's very successful The Visit, grossing $65.0 million on a $5 million budget. The film helped put Shyamalan's name back on audiences' good graces, and it appears that Split should help continue to reestablish Shyamalan as a writer/director to watch.
The first trailer made it clear that audiences were in for a unique and genuinely terrifying experience, as a man with 24 different personalities kidnaps 3 teenage girls. James McAvoy appears undeniably unnerving as the man suffering from multiple personality disorder, and Split also benefits from starring two of 2016's breakout actresses, Haley Lu Richardson (The Edge of Seventeen) and Anya Taylor-Joy (The Witch).
Putting aside the well-made trailers, Split has also been receiving strong reviews out of its premiere at AFI Fest, with many proclaiming it a welcome return to form for Shyamalan. Though January is not exactly known for breakout hits, Split should get close to The Visit's final gross, especially if the early reviews are indicative of the finished product.
- Opening Weekend: $18 million
- Projected Gross Range: $30 million - $70 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $55 million
xXx: The Return of Xander Cage – January 20 (Paramount)
With over 100 million Facebook fans and as the star of one of the most popular franchises today, it’s difficult to argue against Vin Diesel’s drawing power. However, looking outside the Fast and Furious and Riddick franchises, the actor’s last two starring vehicles, Babylon A.D. and The Last Witch Hunter, flopped with $22.5 million and $27.3 million, respectively.
What separates those two films from xXx: The Return of Xander Cage is that it is already part of a franchise. The first film, released in 2002, rode Diesel’s newfound popularity (thanks to The Fast and the Furious) to a strong $142.1 million gross. Diesel chose not to appear in the sequel, which undoubtedly had something to do with xXx: State of the Union’s poor performance at the box office, bringing in only $26.8 million. With Vin Diesel returning to one of his most popular roles, will he be able bring in the Fast and Furious crowds?
It seems unlikely. As we have seen on countless occasions in the last couple of years, generating interest in a sequel to a film that was released over a decade ago is a very tricky business. Though these late sequels have for the most part been comedies, a close comparison we can point to for The Return of Xander Cage is last summer’s Independence Day: Resurgence, which disappointed with $103.1 million, or 34% of Independence Day’s gross. If The Return of Xander Cage were to follow suit, it would gross $47.8 million. Given that the original xXx does not appear to be as well regarded as the majority of Diesel’s more popular films (holds a 5.8 IMDB user rating), this result seems likely.
- Opening Weekend: $17 million
- Projected Gross Range: $30 million - $70 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $45 million
Bastards – January 27 (Warner Bros.)
On paper, a road trip comedy starring Owen Wilson and Ed Helms as they search for their birth fathers sounds hugely appealing. Wilson and Helms are two of the funniest comedic actors working today, and each has been part of a number of successful projects (Wedding Crashers, The Hangover, etc.).
Unfortunately, Bastards does not appear to match up to how it sounds on paper. The trailer for the film is largely devoid of laughs, despite the added support of J.K. Simmons, Ving Rhames, and others. The release date has also been shuffled a few times by Warner Bros., which typically isn’t a good sign.
Bastards at the very least has scheduling on its side. It is the sole broad comedy release in January, and it looks to face little competition until Fist Fight arrives three weeks later. Bastards should get past last fall’s comedic bomb Masterminds ($17.6 million), which also featured Wilson, but this will likely end up towards the bottom of both actors’ filmographies.
- Opening Weekend: $7 million
- Projected Gross Range: $9 million - $25 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $19 million
A Dog’s Purpose – January 27 (Universal)
As if we didn't have enough sadness at the movie theaters this winter, along comes A Dog's Purpose, which looks like a bona fide tear jerker. In a month surprisingly devoid of releases targeting younger demos (with the exception of Monster Trucks), A Dog's Purpose should strike a chord with families and pet owners.
In what looks to be a somewhat funny but mostly heartbreaking look into what it's like to be a pet, the film chronicles the lives of one dog as he is reincarnated into different breeds. The film is also directed by the talented Lasse Hallström, which leads one to think A Dog’s Purpose may end up being quite good.
It also doesn't hurt that the film has a hugely appealing cast that includes Dennis Quaid, Britt Robertson, and the voice of Josh Gad. A gross anywhere near the also extremely heartbreaking dog tale Marley and Me ($143.1 million) is likely out of reach, but a gross close to that of 2015's Max ($42.6 million) seems feasible.
- Opening Weekend: $13 million
- Projected Gross Range: $30 million - $60 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $44 million
Gold – January 27 (The Weinstein Company)
After losing Michael Mann and Spike Lee, Gold finally landed on Stephen Gaghan, his first directorial effort since 2005’s Syriana. Gold features what looks to be yet another fully committed performance from star Matthew McConaughey (this time with a bald cap), who along with Edgar Ramirez stumble upon a literal gold mine in the jungles of Indonesia.
The film’s trailers make the film look quite enjoyable, with McConaughey’s character dealing with his newly found wealth in the increasingly cutthroat gold business. However, Gold was also originally thought of as an awards contender, but was largely ignored for Golden Globe nominations (with the exception of Best Original Song).
Early reviews have also been mixed, with critics acknowledgin its entertainment value but concluding that it ends up falling behind comparable films (American Hustle). Unfortunately, a gross around McConaughey’s disappointing The Free State of Jones ($20.8 million) seems likely.
- Opening Weekend: $7 million
- Projected Gross Range: $12 million - $30 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $19 million
Resident Evil: The Final Chapter – January 27 (Sony)
It may be hard to believe, but the Resident Evil film series is arguably the most successful video game adaptation franchise to date. Resident Evil: The Final Chapter marks the sixth film in the prolific series dating back to 2002, and each installment has proven to be profitable, thanks largely to the ever-growing foreign markets.
On the domestic front, however, the series as of late has been experiencing diminishing returns. After hitting a series high in 2010 with Resident Evil: Afterlife ($60.1 million), 2012’s Resident Evil: Retribution grossed $42.3 million, or just $2 million more than the first film of the franchise (without adjusting for inflation).
The Final Chapter’s trailers promise fans more of the frenetic action they’ve come to expect from the series, with Milla Jovovich’s Alice returning to battle the hordes as humanity stands on the brink of extinction. Though it seems unlikely to win over any new fans and should continue Retribution’s diminishing domestic grosses, the ailing returns should be more than made up for by the foreign markets, which continue to keep this series alive.
- Opening Weekend: $15 million
- Projected Gross Range: $25 million - $40 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $32 million
Studio Prediction for January
Given the diverse content of January and the lack of tent poles, this month could belong to a number of different studios. However, with the promising Split and A Dog’s Purpose, Universal should end up winning the month, which should start off a promising year for the studio.