This past June proved to be a mixed bag, particularly when it came to the success (or lack thereof) of sequels. While Finding Dory managed to blow even the most realistic expectations out of the water (pun not intended), other franchise fare such as Now You See Me 2, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, and Independence Day: Resurgence disappointed (although all three will likely be helped out overseas). This month in particular has caused much speculation as to the reliability of sequels to bring in crowds, particularly with rising production and marketing costs.
Looking ahead to July, this month looks to be dominated by an original property, as The Secret Life of Pets appears to be on track for another hit for Illumination Entertainment. Although this year is lagging behind 2015, this July should mark an improvement over last year’s when Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation and Minions ruled the box office.
The BFG – July 1 (Disney)
Outside of Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Roald Dahl adaptations have a surprisingly spotty track record at the box office. Matilda and James and the Giant Peach both came in under their budgets, and Wes Anderson’s critically acclaimed Fantastic Mr. Fox grossed only $21.0 million.
None of those films, however, had Steven Spielberg in the director’s chair, who is one of the few filmmakers behind the camera that can still drive audiences into theaters. In addition, The BFG is a hugely popular novel, selling 37 million copies in UK editions alone. Scheduling wise, the 4th of July makes sense for The BFG, as it is the only new wide release targeted at families and is likely to appeal to children as well as adults who enjoyed the novel in their earlier years.
Unfortunately, the film faces tough competition from the hugely appealing The Secret Life of Pets just one week later, which could lead BFG to fade away quickly. Fellow Disney release Finding Dory also poses a threat, which if last weekend is any indication is in no danger of slowing down. The BFG should get past the majority of past Roald Dahl adaptations, but will likely get nowhere near Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.
- Opening Weekend (4-day): $40 million
- Projected Gross Range: $80 million - $150 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $105 million
The Legend of Tarzan – July 1 (Warner Bros.)
In a month filled with films whose box office fates are difficult to predict, The Legend of Tarzan may just be the toughest. On the one hand, it’s a big-budget effects-driven blockbuster with a strong cast.
On the other hand, while Tarzan the character is well known, it’s hard to gauge how popular a draw he actually is at the box office. 1999’s animated Tarzan was a success at the box office with a gross of $171.0 million, but the film is not regarded as being one of Disney’s classic films (Sleeping Beauty, The Jungle Book, Cinderella), indicating that demand for a live action adaptation may not terribly high. In addition, given the darker tone and PG-13 rating, The Legend of Tarzan is clearly aiming for a much older audience than its animated counterpart.
Given the actors involved (Alexander Skarsgård, Margot Robbie, Christoph Waltz) and director David Yates’s past filmography (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows), the film is likely quite good. However, given the amount of competition this summer, Tarzan unfortunately looks like it may get lost in the shuffle and fall well below what Warner Bros. is likely hoping for (though it may perform well overseas).
Tarzan feels reminiscent in many ways of 2010’s Robin Hood, also a summer release with an impressive cast and based on a popular character. Robin Hood opened with $36.0 million on its way to a $105.2 million gross. While a domestic gross north of $100 million is not exactly a failure, Robin Hood had a production budget of $200 million, which is right around the estimates for Tarzan. A similar gross seems likely for Tarzan, if not a bit lower.
- Opening Weekend (4-day): $35 million
- Projected Gross Range: $75 million - $140 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $95 million
The Purge: Election Year – July 1 (Universal)
2013’s The Purge was sold almost entirely on the concept of a 12-hour period in which all crime is legal, leading to a massive $34.0 million opening weekend, but the film burned out quickly, ending with $64.4 million. While at first the outlook for the following year’s The Purge: Anarchy seemed bleak (due to the poor reception of its predecessor), the film actually delivered on the premise, taking the action out of the house and onto the streets of downtown Los Angeles. Audiences responded well with an opening weekend of $29.8 million and a domestic total of $71.9 million.
The improved reception of Anarchy over The Purge helps put Election Year in good stead. It’s also being released during the typically popular 4th of July weekend (commercials have emphasized the “patriotic” nature to purging), and has enough distance from The Conjuring 2 that audience cannibalization seems unlikely. Universal also made the smart decision to release Election Year when politics and the upcoming election are at the height of daily conversations.
While Election Year’s trailers are filled with action and put a political spin on the concept, the plot feels nearly identical to Anarchy, with Frank Grillo providing protection in the middle of a city during the most dangerous night of the year. The film should still be a success, but Anarchy’s gross may be out of reach.
- Opening Weekend (4-day): $28 million
- Projected Gross Range: $50 million - $75 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $63 million
Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates – July 8 (Fox)
R-rated wedding comedies have had a mixed track record at the box office. While Wedding Crashers and Bridesmaids were hugely successful, The Five-Year Engagement and That’s My Boy fell well below expectations, despite featuring many well-known actors.
In terms of target audiences, Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates seems on the younger end, closer to that of Wedding Crashers than to The Five-Year Engagement. Marketing has done a good job setting up the premise and the trailers feature quite a few laughs, although the “Based on a True Story” angle feels like an odd choice for a broad comedy.
The film’s cast, however, does not feel quite as strong as Wedding Crashers or Bridesmaids. Adam DeVine has gained much notoriety for his roles in Workaholics and the Pitch Perfect series, but this will mark his first starring role in a major studio release. In addition, while Zac Efron is a popular actor, his first two comedies this year, Dirty Grandpa and Neighbors 2 came in below expectations. The film does, however, have strong support from Anna Kendrick and Aubrey Plaza.
The film also faces tough competition for comedy audiences from Ghostbusters the following week. This should end up right around Dirty Grandpa’s $35.5 million.
- Opening Weekend: $15 million
- Projected Gross Range: $25 million - $50 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $40 million
The Secret Life of Pets – July 8 (Universal)
It may not be on the level of Pixar, but Illumination Entertainment has yet to have a flop and has found huge success with The Lorax and the Despicable Me franchise. The Secret Life of Pets may be based on an original idea, but it seems likely to continue the animation house’s winning streak.
Judging from the marketing, The Secret Life of Pets is being sold on the simple but very relatable and intriguing premise: how do our pets keep themselves busy when we’re not at home? The premise has lent itself to quite a few funny gags, particularly a choreographed heavy metal jam session led by a poodle. Like Illumination’s other films, Pets features a talented voice cast that includes Louis C.K., Kevin Hart, and Ellie Kemper.
Barring an over performance from Ice Age: Collision Course, The Secret Life of Pets looks like the kind of film that should start off with a big opening and hold well, particularly if the positive reviews continue to trickle in. Animal-centric family films have had a great year so far (Zootopia, The Jungle Book), and Pets should continue this trend.
- Opening Weekend: $80 million
- Projected Gross Range: $180 million - $300 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $255 million
The Infiltrator – July 13 (Broad Green Pictures)
An interesting bit of counter programming from new distributor Broad Green Pictures, The Infiltrator looks to be the only film targeting exclusively older adults this July. Based on a true story and autobiography of the same name, the film deals with a U.S. customs agent (Bryan Cranston) infiltrating the cartel of legendary drug lord Pablo Escobar.
True crime drug films typically don’t have the strongest track record at the box office, unless they are anchored by a huge star (Blow) or feature a large ensemble cast (American Gangster). While Bryan Cranston is a popular actor and has gained a major following thanks to Breaking Bad, he doesn’t quite have the same level of drawing power as 2001’s Johnny Depp.
While an exact theater count is not yet available, a film like this would most likely receive a release somewhere in the 1,000 – 1,500 theater range, especially given that Broad Green’s widest release was last Labor Day’s surprise hit, A Walk in the Woods, with 1,960 screens. This should end up close to director Brad Furman’s most recent film, Runner Runner.
- Opening Weekend (5-day): $7 million
- Projected Gross Range: $10 million - $25 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $17 million
Ghostbusters – July 15 (Sony)
After decades of speculation over a sequel, the Ghostbusters property is finally being rebooted. At the time of its release over thirty years ago, the first film was a massive smash hit, grossing $229.2 million in its initial run. While the second film was not quite as successful, the property remains popular today, and you’d be hard pressed to find someone that has not seen the first film, or at the very least would not recognize the infamous tagline “Who you gonna call?”
The star and director (Melissa McCarthy and Paul Feig, respectively) of the box office hits Bridesmaids, The Heat, and Spy paired with a hugely popular brand in many ways feels like a guaranteed hit. However, there are a few hurdles facing the film. Since its announcement, the reboot having an all female Ghostbusters team has caused a significant amount of backlash. The first teaser was also met with much criticism, and now holds the distinction of being the most disliked film trailer on YouTube.
As this is Sony’s biggest release of the summer, marketing has been aggressive, with posters everywhere and an array of TV commercials, particularly during the NBA Finals. However, as we’ve seen with recent big budget misfires (Alice Through the Looking Glass, Warcraft), awareness can only take a film so far. Given Feig’s track record, this film may turn out to be quite good. If this is the case, expect Ghostbusters to start out (relatively) small, but hold on well with little comedy competition on the horizon.
- Opening Weekend: $45 million
- Projected Gross Range: $90 million - $180 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $130 million
Ice Age: Collision Course – July 22 (Fox)
One of the longest running animated franchises with consistently released installments since 2002, Ice Age is now on its fifth entry with Collision Course. Although quality wise it may not be on the level of Pixar or DreamWorks, the series has shown an impressive return on investment: costing only $95 million, 2012’s Ice Age: Continental Drift grossed $161.3 million and a massive $877.2 million worldwide.
Collision Course brings back the entire voice cast (Ray Romano, John Leguizamo, Denis Leary), as well as some new additions (Nick Offerman, Adam Devine). The trailers feature Scrat searching for acorns in space, a love interest for Sid, and a possible end to the titular ice age. While these new plot points offer a number of laughs, they seem unlikely to convert many non die-hard Ice Age fans.
Given that the franchise’s domestic grosses peaked with 2009’s Dawn of the Dinosaurs at $195.5 million, and Continental Drift marked a series low at $161.3 million, it seems likely for Collision Course to continue this downward trend, particularly with strong competition from The Secret Life of Pets. However, Fox is sure to recoup their budget several times overseas, where these films have only increased in popularity.
- Opening Weekend: $40 million
- Projected Gross Range: $110 million - $170 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $145 million
Lights Out – July 22 (Warner Bros.)
While it hasn’t been a great year for supernatural horror, the success of The Conjuring 2 shows that the genre still has lots of life left when given an appealing option. Based on the short film of the same name, Lights Out seems appealing for a number of reasons: it has a fresh take on a familiar premise (an adult having an “imaginary” friend that is terrorizing her family), early positive reviews, and one of the scariest trailers in recent memory.
It doesn’t feel like an accident that Lights Out is being released during the same time frame as The Conjuring three years ago, when that film surpassed all expectations on its way to $137.4 million. However, without the true story angle or the R rating, which ironically contributed quite a buzz to The Conjuring, this seems unlikely to break out to quite the same extent.
This should still be a significant hit for the horror genre, particularly if the film lives up to the good reviews. A gross around that of Mama ($71.6 million), another well reviewed supernatural horror film dealing with a family in peril, should be within reach.
- Opening Weekend: $28 million
- Projected Gross Range: $40 million - $100 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $70 million
Star Trek Beyond – July 22 (Paramount)
Seven years ago, J.J. Abrams pulled off the difficult feat of introducing Star Trek to a new generation of moviegoers and appealing to die-hard Trek fans, resulting in an impressive domestic gross of $257.7 million. Though it couldn’t quite live up to the expectations of its predecessor, Star Trek into Darkness proved to be a hit, grossing $228.7 million stateside and $467.3 million worldwide.
With Abrams tied with up with Star Wars: The Force Awakens, action veteran Justin Lin stepped into directing duties for Beyond, which seems like a great choice given the jaw-dropping set pieces from the recent Fast and Furious films and the series’ themes of family and teamwork. Unfortunately, Beyond seems to face a bit of an uphill battle.
The first teaser trailer was met with mostly negative reception, though the theatrical version did help instill a bit of goodwill into the film. In addition, looking at past action trilogies, the third film has almost always come under its predecessor. The Dark Knight Rises grossed 84% of The Dark Knight’s massive $533.3 million total, and the recent X-Men Apocalypse looks to come in at roughly $60 million less than its predecessor. The Dark Knight Rises also had the advantage of being the definite conclusion to the trilogy, a luxury that Beyond does not share (stars Chris Pine and Zachary Quinto are contracted for a fourth film).
The second to last weekend for July is historically when the slower period of the summer begins. During the last five years, the highest opening weekend of this period belongs to Captain America: The First Avenger, with $65.1 million. This seems like a realistic target for Beyond, but it will likely still come in significantly under Into Darkness.
- Opening Weekend: $60 million
- Projected Gross Range: $140 million - $220 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $155 million
Nerve – July 27 (Lionsgate)
Based on the novel of the same name, Nerve deals with two teenagers becoming involved in a game in which users dare the players to do obscene or illegal acts, with the game quickly becoming sinister. While the film’s premise of an internet cautionary tale feels timely, this seems unlikely to break out in a significant way.
While talented young actors Dave Franco and Emma Roberts have been a part of successful films and TV series, it’s difficult to say how much box office drawing power the pair will have. In addition, outside of The Social Network, recent films dealing with the internet have struggled at the box office. 2013’s The Fifth Estate flopped at $3.2 million, and Untraceable came in below expectations of $28.6 million.
The film feels reminiscent of last year’s American Ultra, also a late summer release about two young adults finding themselves way over their heads under life threatening circumstances. That film, which starred Jesse Eisenberg and Kirsten Stewart, grossed $14.4 million. Although it’s getting a head start on the other nationwide releases by being released on a Wednesday, a gross around that of American Ultra seems likely.
- Opening Weekend (5 day): $6 million
- Projected Gross Range: $8 million - $20 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $13 million
Bad Moms – July 29 (STX Entertainment)
A late addition to the summer calendar, Bad Moms features a hugely appealing set of comedic actresses, including Christina Applegate, Kathryn Hahn, Mila Kunis, and Kristen Bell, cracking under the pressures of raising children. The trailers have for the most part been well received, and comedies targeted at females released in July have found much success in recent years (Trainwreck, Tammy).
Bad Moms in many ways feels reminiscent of Sisters, also a female driven comedy about a group of women looking to cut loose. Sisters, however, was released at the height of the holiday season, and while the ensemble on display here is impressive, it can’t quite compete with the duo of Tiny Fey and Amy Poehler. Bad Moms may come in below Sisters’s $87.0 million, but this should prove to be a minor hit for new distributor STX.
- Opening Weekend: $20 million
- Projected Gross Range: $30 million - $75 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $50 million
Jason Bourne – Universal (July 29)
Thought by many to have inspired the darker and grittier tone of Daniel Craig’s James Bond, Matt Damon’s Bourne films became one of the rare trilogies that increased in grosses with each installment, culminating with The Bourne Ultimatum’s massive $227.4 million. After the somewhat underwhelming performance of the franchise’s spinoff, The Bourne Legacy, Damon has returned to the role that he is arguably most well known for, 9 years after Ultimatum.
Judging from the trailers and the tag line “You Know His Name”, the plot looks to be more of the same from the last films, with Jason Bourne attempting to uncover more facts about this past. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, as it promises more of the same gritty action that made the first films so popular, and the Las Vegas car chase from the trailers is undeniably an eye-catching set piece. In addition, in a summer dominated by superhero and CGI heavy movies, Jason Bourne offers some solid counter programming as a straightforward action film.
The ensemble that has been put together for the film is impressive, which includes Tommy Lee Jones and last year’s Best Supporting Actress Oscar winner Alicia Vikander. Evidenced by the success of The Martian (and his Oscar nomination), Matt Damon’s drawing power is also as strong as ever.
One challenge the film does face is its placement on the calendar. While Star Trek Beyond will likely not pose too much of a threat, Jason Bourne is being followed by Suicide Squad (speaking of comic book films), which is poised to be one of the big break out hits of the summer. If this turns out to be true, it could impact Jason Bourne’s staying power. However, this is still a direct sequel to one of the biggest action franchises of the last decade, and at the very least should be getting close to The Bourne Supremacy’s $176.2 million.
- Opening Weekend: $55 million
- Projected Gross Range: $130 million - $200 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $160 million
Studio Prediction for July
After Disney has ruled the box office for months, it looks like the reins will finally be handed over to a different studio. Given that it has the safe bets Jason Bourne and The Secret Life of Pets, with some help from The Purge: Election Year, Universal will likely come out on top this July.