Looking back at April, The Jungle Book always looked to come out on top, but it proved to be one of those films that is not only massively successful but also dominates everything in its path, particularly the expensive The Huntsman: Winter’s War. Meanwhile, the star-studded Mother’s Day came in below expectations, as did Hardcore Henry and Keanu.
For the last two months, I have grossly underestimated Disney releases The Jungle Book and Zootopia. I plan on not making this mistake again with Captain America: Civil War, which seems like it could set a new opening weekend record for May. With Civil War, X-Men: Apocalypse, The Angry Birds Movie, and Alice Through The Looking Glass looking at high returns, this should be able to surpass last year’s frame when Avengers: Age of Ultron, Pitch Perfect 2, and San Andreas led the box office.
‘Captain America: Civil War’ – May 6 (Disney)
As it has for the last nine years (including the Spider-Man and X-Men films), the first weekend of May will be kicking off with a Marvel film. In recent years, the Marvel brand has, relatively speaking, lost some of its momentum. Last year’s Avengers: Age of Ultron failed to meet the heights of its predecessor, and Ant-Man became the lowest grossing film of the Marvel Cinematic Universe aside from The Incredible Hulk and Captain America: The First Avenger. ‘Relatively’ is in italics above because Age of Ultron was still a massive success and ended up with $1.4 billion and Ant-Man grossed $519.2 million despite his being one of the lesser-known Marvel characters.
Captain America: Civil War has just about everything going for it. While some believe that the “start of summer” has shifted due to Furious 7 and Captain America: The Winter Soldier opening at the beginning of April, the first weekend of May is historically the start of blockbuster season and is a coveted tent pole date for studios. The last two films from the Marvel Cinematic Universe that have opened in this frame, Avengers: Age of Ultron and Iron Man 3, each grossed upwards of $170 million in their first three days.
In addition, this film stars arguably the two most popular MCU characters, Iron Man and Captain America, and, due to the presence of returning characters Black Widow, The Vision, Hawkeye, Scarlet Witch, and War Machine, is being dubbed by many as “The Avengers 2.5”. However, unlike the two Avengers films, Civil War for the first time features the Avengers facing off against one another, which has made this film a must-see for MCU fans.
Lastly, this film also marks the addition of Spider-Man to the MCU. Though it may seem like a long time ago, the first Spider-Man film broke opening weekend records back in 2002, leading many studios to begin to green light other superhero franchises. Though the character had some missteps with The Amazing Spider-Man films, he remains one of the most popular comic book characters today. His inclusion in the film (as well as in one of the trailers) has added even more to the growing hype.
At the time of this writing, Civil War holds a 94% on Rotten Tomatoes, indicating heavy critical acclaim. An Avengers-level opening and final gross seem likely, and without major competition until X-Men: Apocalypse three weeks later, may even climb higher.
- Opening Weekend: $215 million
- Projected Gross Range: $450 million - $650 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $580 million
‘The Darkness’ – May 13 (High Top Releasing)
The Darkness has horror fans all to itself during the month of May, features an appealing cast that includes Kevin Bacon, Jennifer Morrison, and Radha Mitchell, and has a premise, of a supernatural entity following a family home from vacation, that is undeniably scary. Unfortunately, the film’s trailer lacks genuine scares and unique visuals, which are essential to selling a horror film to general audiences.
In addition, while an exact screen count is not yet available, the widest release from distributor High Top Releasing was last year’s The Green Inferno, at 1,540 theaters. That film opened to $3.5 million and ended its run with $7.1 million. The film may get a boost from being released on Friday the 13th, but an amount around that final figure seems likely.
- Opening Weekend: $3 million
- Projected Gross Range: $5 million - $20 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $8 million
‘Money Monster’ – May 13 (Sony)
Despite having a somewhat nondescript and bland poster, the trailer for Money Monster is actually very tense, highlighting the film’s strong premise and all-star cast. Although he's had a few misfires recently, when paired with the right material George Clooney is typically a reliable star at the box office (The Monuments Men, The Descendants), and while she isn’t the draw she once was, the presence of Julia Roberts should help.
Though it is opening in the shadow of Civil War, Money Monster is aiming for a mostly older demographic, and if the movie turns out to be good, could end up providing solid counter programming. In addition, it doesn’t face any competition for adult dramas until Me Before You, which arrives the first weekend of June.
Money Monster in many ways feels reminiscent of 2003’s Phone Booth. Both films involve one person being taken hostage by a shooter and take place mainly in one location. Phone Booth ended up with $46.5 million. Given the talent here both in front of and behind the camera (Jodie Foster on directing duties) and the release date, Phone Booth’s gross seems like a good target.
- Opening Weekend: $15 million
- Projected Gross Range: $25 million - $60 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $43 million
‘The Angry Birds Movie’ – May 20 (Sony)
The Angry Birds Movie joins the ranks of Mortal Kombat, Need for Speed, and Doom as an adaptation of a video game with almost no semblance of a plot to draw from. Despite the fact that the genre has included far more failures than successes, Hollywood refuses to give up on video game adaptations, with the big budget Warcraft arriving in June and Assassin's Creed in December. Unlike past expensive disappointments such as Prince of Persia, The Angry Birds Movie looks poised to be one of the rare successes of the genre, and may surpass 2001’s Lara Croft: Tomb Raider as the highest video game adaptation of all time.
The Angry Birds Movie features a talented voice cast that includes Jason Sudeikis, Danny McBride, and Maya Rudolph, has excellent animation, and the trailers are actually very funny, which is key to bringing in adults. What also doesn't hurt is that The Angry Birds Movie actually looks almost exactly like its source material, and the marketing clearly conveys the plot of the video game—a group of angry birds attacking pigs that stole their eggs—which should help bring some of the fans that have downloaded the game a collective 3 billion times across all platforms. A gross around Sony’s Hotel Transylvania ($148.3 million) seems likely, if not a bit higher.
- Opening Weekend: $45 million
- Projected Gross Range: $125 - $200 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $150 million
‘The Nice Guys’ – May 20 (Warner Bros.)
With the exception of Civil War, in terms of quality, The Nice Guys may end up being one of the best-reviewed films of May. Despite some backlash for Iron Man 3, Shane Black is a talented filmmaker, and although Russell Crowe and Ryan Gosling aren’t necessarily known for their comedic talents, the trailers for The Nice Guys are very funny and feature lots of action, and the film has a very appealing retro buddy comedy vibe.
It remains to be seen whether this will translate to success at the box office. Early in his career, Black had much success (as screenwriter) with Lethal Weapon and its sequel. Those two films, however, had Mel Gibson coming off the popular Mad Max series. Though Russell Crowe remains a well-liked actor, his recent starring entries such as Broken City and Noah fell below expectations at the box office.
One other major hurdle facing The Nice Guys is its release date. It was originally set for June 17, where it would have had comedic audiences to itself for the rest of June and part of July, but that date was instead given to Central Intelligence. The Nice Guys is now facing off directly against Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising, and while that film will skew a bit younger, it will still likely be stealing many late teens and early twenty somethings from The Nice Guys. The Nice Guys seems in line for a modest opening weekend, but if it turns out to be as good as the trailers look, may have solid holds.
- Opening Weekend: $18 million
- Projected Gross Range: $35 million - $80 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $65 million
‘Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising’ – May 20 (Universal)
Neighbors 2 has many of the key ingredients that make sequels successful. It brings back the original cast (Zac Efron, Seth Rogen, Rose Byrne) with some new additions (Selena Gomez, Chloë Grace Moretz), and it has a plot that is different enough from its predecessor to inspire interest, yet similar enough to avoid alienating fans of the original.
However, successful comedies tend to be hard to replicate, even if the sequels have the right elements. Pitch Perfect and 21 Jump Street weren’t necessarily massive hits out of the gate (wide opening weekends of $14.8 million and $36.3 million, respectively), but built up an audience during their stay in theaters and remained popular on DVD. When their sequels were released, the originals were still well liked and their audiences had increased, leading to grosses much higher than the grosses of their predecessors.
The success of Neighbors was in large part due to the excellent marketing and funny premise, in addition to an appealing cast. It had a huge opening weekend ($49.0 million) and held on well to a domestic total of $150.1 million. While a sorority moving in next door helps differentiate it from its predecessor, the premise of Neighbors 2 doesn’t feel quite as fresh this time around, and the 6.4 IMDB rating of Neighbors indicates lukewarm reception from audiences (21 Jump Street and Pitch Perfect both had 7.2 ratings).
Among recent R-rated comedy sequels, Ted 2 grossed only 37.2% of Ted, and Horrible Bosses 2 took in 46.3% of its predecessor. The latter drop would put Neighbors 2 at just under $70 million. Given the strong release date, this should fare a bit better, though it may be hurt if The Nice Guys over performs.
- Opening Weekend: $35 million
- Projected Gross Range: $50 million - $125 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $90 million
‘Alice Through the Looking Glass’ – May 27 (Disney)
Like its predecessor, Alice Through the Looking Glass has an impressive cast that includes Johnny Depp, Anne Hathaway, Mia Wasikowska, and the late Alan Rickman, and judging from the trailers has stunning visuals that create the immersive Wonderland. Unfortunately, Alice Through the Looking Glass seems poised to come in significantly under its predecessor’s $334.1 million domestic total and $1.025 billion worldwide gross.
Much of Alice in Wonderland’s success was built off the excitement seeing Lewis Carroll’s beloved fantasy novel in a live action adaptation for the first time. In addition, the marketing for the first film centered around a battle in Wonderland, while Through the Looking Glass’s trailers highlight the arguably less exciting premise of trying to save the Mad Hatter.
Speaking of the Mad Hatter, Alice in Wonderland’s biggest star, Johnny Depp, appears to be taking more of a back seat this time around, with the focus more on Alice traveling back in time. Since its predecessor’s release in 2010, Depp has also had a string of flops in a row, indicating a decrease in drawing power. In addition, though director James Bobin (Flight of the Conchords, The Muppets) is extremely talented and may have delivered a strong film, his name lacks the recognition of Tim Burton, who has taken on producing duties for Alice Through the Looking Glass.
Six years is typically a long wait for a sequel, which means that the first Alice in Wonderland is likely in the back of most moviegoers’ minds. Even if it were at the forefront, the 6.5 IMDB rating and 52% Rotten Tomatoes score indicate that the demand for the sequel is not terribly high. Though its brand may draw in some family audiences, this will likely come in around half of its predecessor.
- Opening Weekend (4-day): $75 million
- Projected Gross Range: $125 million - $250 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $160 million
‘X-Men: Apocalypse’ – May 27 (Fox)
Since 2000, we have seen an X-Men movie released once every three years. Though dips in commercial and critical reception occurred with X-Men: The Last Stand and X-Men Origins: Wolverine, the series has stayed fairly consistent with solid entries. The most recent (and arguably best) entry, 2014’s X-Men: Days of Future Past, grossed a huge $233.9 million and a franchise high $747.8 million worldwide.
Apocalypse, hoping to capitalize on its predecessor’s success, brings back most of the cast from Days of Future Past with one major exception: Hugh Jackman (at least not in a starring role), who is undoubtedly the most popular character of the X-Men franchise. However, audiences have warmed up to franchise newcomers Michael Fassbender, James McAvoy, and Jennifer Lawrence. Apocalypse also has one factor that has been absent from the last two X-Men films: a clearly defined and menacing villain, something that has helped propel other action film sequels such as Skyfall and The Dark Knight.
With strong trailers featuring lots of action, some exciting new characters to the prequel trilogy (Cyclops, Nightcrawler, Storm), and a Memorial Day release date, this seems likely to get close to Days of Future Past, despite competition for action audiences two weeks later from Warcraft.
- Opening Weekend (4-day): $120 million
- Projected Gross Range: $175 million - $300 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $245 million
Studio Prediction for May:
Even if it did not have Alice Through the Looking Glass on the calendar for May, this month looks like it will belong to Disney. With a huge amount of hype, excellent reviews, and a strong international debut last weekend, Captain America: Civil War will be by far the highest grossing movie of May.