This past October came with a few surprises. While franchise films Jack Reacher: Never Go Back and Inferno were never expected to become major blockbusters, general audiences have shown even less interest in either film than seemed likely. Especially surprising was the fact that despite being the sole nationwide release, Inferno came in at No. 2 for its opening weekend behind holdover Boo!: A Madea Halloween, further showcasing the drawing power of Tyler Perry.

This upcoming November features surprisingly few sequels (just Bad Santa 2), a handful of franchise films, and several awards contenders. Thanks to likely blockbusters Doctor Strange, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, and Moana, as well as a number of promising titles, this month should come out ahead of 2015’s November when Spectre and the final entry of The Hunger Games franchise ruled the box office.

Doctor Strange – November 4 (Disney)

After thirteen films in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, Doctor Strange finally hits the big screen after having been in development for nearly thirty years. In typical Marvel fashion, the studio has chosen an obscure property to introduce to mainstream audiences, similar to past MCU successes Guardians of the Galaxy, Iron Man, and Ant-Man. Also in typical Marvel fashion, they hired director Scott Derrickson, who while quite talented, has yet to helm a big-budget franchise film.

While past Marvel properties have also included supernatural elements and have taken place largely on planets besides Earth, Doctor Strange appears to be one of the more psychedelic films, featuring a “spiritual dimension,” and evoking memories of Inception. While this helps differentiate it from other superhero films, it also makes it a somewhat tougher sell to general audiences.

To combat this, Marvel has hired Benedict Cumberbatch as the titular Doctor Strange, who has built a strong following from Sherlock and The Imitation Game, and an impressive supporting cast that includes Rachel McAdams, Chiwetel Ejiofor, and Mads Mikkelsen. Not surprisingly, they have also executed an aggressive marketing campaign, highlighting the film’s impressive action sequences. To help push anyone on the fence, the film has received strong reviews, currently sitting at a 92% on Rotten Tomatoes. A total between Thor: A Dark World ($206.3 million) and Captain America: The Winter Solider ($259.7 million) seems likely.

• Opening Weekend: $82 million
• Projected Gross Range: $210 million - $280 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $235 million

Hacksaw Ridge – November 4 (Lionsgate)

Though grisly World War II films are not exactly in short supply, Hacksaw Ridge comes with a twist: the main character, played by Andrew Garfield, does not carry or fire a weapon, not even in battle. It definitely makes for an interesting story and one worthy of telling, but its box office fate remains to be seen.

The film premiered in September at the Venice Film Festival to a 10-minute standing ovation, and since then has been receiving excellent reviews. Given Mel Gibson's track record as a director (Braveheart, Apocalypto), it would not be at all surprising if the film turned out to be as good as the aforementioned standing ovation implies.

Films containing this level of violence can be a tough sell, though, especially when no major star is attached. Outside of his role as Spider-Man, Garfield has not yet proven whether he's capable of drawing in crowds on his own. A total around Clint Eastwood’s Flags of Our Fathers ($33.6 million), also a well-reviewed violent World War II film, seems like a solid target for Hacksaw Ridge.

• Opening Weekend: $12 million
• Projected Gross Range: $20 million - $50 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $31 million

Trolls – November 4 (Fox)

Yes, the iconic dolls that were first introduced in 1959 are getting their own animated feature-length film adaptation nearly half a century later. While it would be easy to write this idea off as a misguided cash grab, The LEGO Movie proved that it is possible to mine something great out of a seemingly simple children’s toy.

To help combat skepticism, DreamWorks turned Trolls into what appears to be an appealing musical, and fittingly hired voice actors with singing backgrounds, including Justin Timberlake, Anna Kendrick, and James Corden. It also helps that Timberlake's latest single, “Can't Stop the Feeling!” (featured on the film's soundtrack), has been hugely popular since its debut in May.

The first weekend of November has proven a successful time for animated films to open against big-budget tent poles. Big Hero 6 defied expectations and actually opened above Interstellar with $56.2 million, and The Peanuts Movie grossed $44.2 million opposite Spectre. Trolls has been receiving mostly favorable reviews so far, and it faces no competition for family audiences until Moana arrives three weeks later. The Peanuts Movie topped out at $130.1 million, which seems like a doable target for Trolls.

• Opening Weekend: $45 million
• Projected Gross Range: $110 million - $160 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $135 million

Almost Christmas – November 11 (Universal)

Three years ago, Universal scored a major hit with The Best Man Holiday, which featured a large ensemble cast and grossed $70.5 million against a $17 million budget. Almost Christmas comes from prolific producer Will Packer, who has found much success with comedies targeting African-American audiences, with a resume that also includes Ride Along and Think Like a Man. Will Almost Christmas become the next Best Man Holiday or Think Like a Man?

Probably not. The Best Man Holiday was a sequel and Think Like a Man was adapted from a hugely popular book. That’s not to say, however, that Almost Christmas won’t be drawing in audiences. The film, dealing with a large family reuniting for the first time since the death of their mother, faces zero competition for African-American audiences during November, and it features an impressive ensemble that includes Danny Glover, Gabrielle Union, Omar Epps, and Mo’Nique.

Almost Christmas feels more reminiscent of 2009’s This Christmas, also produced by Will Packer. That film, which also featured a large cast and centered on a family reuniting for the holidays, grossed $49.1 million. Given the lack of competition and the timely release date, that seems like a safe target for Almost Christmas.

• Opening Weekend: $18 million
• Projected Gross Range: $30 million - $60 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $48 million

Arrival – November 11 (Paramount)

One of the bigger hits to come out of the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals this fall, Arrival has quite a few factors working in its favor. As of the beginning of November, it holds a 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, indicating universal acclaim. It also has an all-star cast that includes Amy Adams, Forest Whitaker, and Jeremy Renner, and at its helm is the hugely talented Denis Villeneuve, who has an impressive track record of successful and well-reviewed films (Prisoners, Sicario).

Another factor that certainly doesn't hurt is its genre: alien invasion films have typically had a strong track record at the box office. This film, however, will not be pulling in the big-budget spectacle audiences that made Independence Day and War of the Worlds blockbusters, and will instead be targeting the crowds that made the subtler District 9 a hit.

District 9 was released at the end of August in 2009, and ended with a strong $115.4 million gross. While something that high may be out of reach, Arrival feels like the type of film that may have a modest opening weekend but generate strong legs, particularly if it starts generating awards buzz.

• Opening Weekend: $21 million
• Projected Gross Range: $50 million - $120 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $90 million

Shut In – November 11 (EuropaCorp)

After its release date was pushed back three times, Shut In will finally land in the middle of November, where it will face zero competition for horror films until Incarnate arrives in December. The film will mark distributor EuropaCorp’s second release this year, after Nine Lives underperformed with $19.7 million in August.

Although 2016 has been an excellent year for horror films, Shut In seems unlikely to continue the streak. Don’t Breathe and Lights Out became hits because their trailers were genuinely frightening and they put fresh spins on the home invasion and imaginary friend concepts. Shut In may end up being quite scary, and Naomi Watts has proven to be a capable lead, but the premise of a widowed psychiatrist witnessing apparitions of her recently disappeared adopted son doesn’t seem unique or exciting enough to stand out among this year’s releases.

The trailer also doesn’t show off anything particularly frightening or interesting visually, both of which are key to selling a horror film. Though it should at the very least perform better than September’s bomb The Disappointments Room ($2.4 million), this may struggle to reach May’s The Darkness ($10.7 million).

• Opening Weekend: $3 million
• Projected Gross Range: $4 million - $10 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $8 million

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk – November 18 (Sony)

Based on the novel of the same name, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk tells the true story of a group of soldiers who come home from Iraq and subsequently embark on a promotional tour, culminating in an appearance at a halftime show during the Thanksgiving Day football game. Director Ang Lee has assembled an impressive cast that one might not typically associate with a serious war drama, including Steve Martin, Vin Diesel, and Chris Tucker. The film is also unique in the manner in which it was shot: 120 frames-per-second, 4K resolution, and in 3D, marking the first to be produced at this speed (standard speed for films is 24 frames-per-second).

Unfortunately, early word on the film is less than stellar. Lee has openly admitted in interviews that the format is largely still in its experimental phase, which critics have been quick to point to as a major problem. Those that saw the film at its premiere at the New York Film Festival in October remarked on how the war scenes benefit hugely from the format, which gives them a hyper-realistic feeling. Critics have also noted, however, that the format exposes the artifice of the acting, particularly from several of the supporting cast members.

Another problem facing the film is that those that were interested in seeing Billy Lynn in its intended format are likely out of luck: most theaters in the country are still unable to project 120 frames-per-second, which may encourage those moviegoers to wait until Blu-Ray. If Hacksaw Ridge over-performs, Billy Lynn could end up on the lower end of recent war films.

• Opening Weekend: $9 million
• Projected Gross Range: $15 million - $45 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $25 million

Bleed for This – November 18 (Open Road Films)

The trailer for the Bleed for This is genuinely heart-wrenching, and the fact that it's based on a true story makes it seem likely that the film will be that much harder to watch. Miles Teller stars as real-life boxer Vinny Paz, who at the height of his career experiences a near-fatal car wreck, leaving him badly injured and unable to continue training and fighting. The trailer also shows off the impressive authenticity and determination of the actors: Miles Teller clearly added a great deal of muscle for the role, and Aaron Eckhart reportedly put on 40 pounds of weight as Vinny's trainer.

The boxing genre is notoriously tough to pin down. On the one hand, last November's Creed surprised analysts and ended up becoming one of the fall's biggest hits, grossing $109.7 million. On the other hand, August’s Hands of Stone, starring Edgar Ramirez and Robert de Niro, flopped with just $4.7 million.

While the trailer arguably gives too much away (has a bit of a "did I just see the whole movie?" feeling), Bleed for This looks undeniably like an effective and inspirational story. Though a gross anywhere near Creed seems of reach, Bleed for This should at least be getting close to 2013’s Grudge Match ($29.8 million).

• Opening Weekend: $8 million
• Projected Gross Range: $15 million - $45 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $26 million

The Edge of Seventeen – November 18 (STX Entertainment)

There was no shortage of critically acclaimed hits out of Toronto this year, but The Edge of Seventeen is one of the few with a riotously funny red-band trailer. Very much in the vein of the John Hughes classics of the 80s, The Edge of Seventeen looks to be one of the more genuine and raw teen comedies to come along in quite some time. Although R-rated teen comedies have been in surprisingly short supply these days, they tend to catch fire when they connect with audiences: 21 Jump Street, for example, started out strong with $36.3 million and went on to gross $138.4 million.

Oscar nominee Hailee Steinfeld moved back into the spotlight last year with her role in Pitch Perfect 2, and she remains one of the more talented young actresses of her generation. The Edge of Seventeen also features a strong supporting cast that includes Woody Harrelson, Kyra Sedgwick, and Blake Jenner.

Judging from the trailers, the film seems to lean heavily on drama as well, which may turn off some audiences that made 21 Jump Street and Superbad huge hits. However, if the film turns out to be as good as the reviews suggest, this should end up yet another hit for new distributor STX.

• Opening Weekend: $15 million
• Projected Gross Range: $40 million - $80 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $60 million

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – November 18 (Warner Bros.)

Recognizing the need to fill the void left by the Harry Potter franchise, Warner Bros. appears to not be messing around with Fantastic Beats and Where to Find Them, the first installment in what will hopefully be a trilogy. They’ve hired David Yates, the director of the final four (and arguably best) Harry Potter films, J.K. Rowling to adapt her own novel, and talented actors such as Eddie Redmayne, Ezra Miller, and Colin Farrell.

A clear comparison for Fantastic Beasts is The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, the first installment of the prequel trilogy to the hugely successful The Lord of the Rings franchise. That film went on to gross $303.0 million, or 80% of Return of the King’s domestic earnings. While that is a fine result, it was seen as somewhat of a disappointment given nine years of inflation and a boost from 3D ticket sales.

When looking at the two franchises, one disadvantage facing Fantastic Beasts is that the film features an entirely new cast of characters, while The Hobbit had returning favorites Gandalf, Frodo, and Gollum to help spark interest. Fortunately, five years is not quite as long a wait for a spinoff, and the film’s trailers have shown off some impressive visuals. 80% of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2’s $381.0 million total would amount to $304.8, which feels a little high for Fantastic Beasts. Still, the film should do excellent business, especially if it receives strong reviews, and should help justify Warner Bros.' plans for five films for the series.

• Opening Weekend: $80 million
• Projected Gross Range: $180 million - $300 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $225 million

Allied – November 23 (Paramount)

One of the more interesting and promising releases this November, Allied features the impressive pairing of Brad Pitt and Marion Cotillard, two of the most talented actors working today. In a plot that might seem somewhat reminiscent of Mr. and Mrs. Smith, Pitt and Cotillard star as married spies fighting for the allies during World War II. When Cotillard comes under suspicion as being a German spy, Pitt is forced to confront her before the allies kill both of them.

The film’s trailers have sparked a great deal of interest and are undeniably intense. It also doesn’t hurt that Robert Zemeckis is at the helm, with commercials highlighting his resume that includes Forrest Gump, Cast Away, and Flight.

Though it has really nothing to do with the actual film, the controversy surrounding Pitt’s personal life the last couple of months has likely only caused increased interest in Allied. Although this will be the third “war” film released in November, the romantic angle should push this at least to Pitt’s most recent World War II film, Fury ($85.8 million).

• Opening Weekend (5-day): $30 million
• Projected Gross Range: $60 million - $100 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $87 million

Bad Santa 2 – November 23 (Broad Green Pictures)

Though it wasn’t exactly a runaway hit, 2003’s Bad Santa received strong reviews upon its release and grossed $60.0 million. Outside of Friday Night Lights, the film currently stands as Billy Bob Thornton’s highest grossing starring role, and is still well regarded today with a 7.1 IMDB user rating.

Bad Santa 2 brings back Billy Bob Thornton’s foul-mouthed titular Santa along with Brett Kelly and Tony Cox, who are planning yet another Holiday-themed heist. The sequel also introduces series newcomer Christina Hendricks as well as Kathy Bates as Thornton’s mother. Though it does feel an awful lot like a remake of the first film, the sequel’s red-band trailer is extremely funny, looking likely to please fans of Thornton’s brand of humor.

Unfortunately, the track record for sequels arriving more than a decade after their predecessors has been less than spectacular. Despite excellent reviews, Bridget Jones’s Baby looks poised to come in at a little over half of its predecessor, and February’s Zoolander 2 flopped with just $28.8 million. Given its timely release date and excellent trailers, Bad Santa 2 should do a bit better than the aforementioned titles, but it seems unlikely to reach its predecessor.

• Opening Weekend (5-day): $15 million
• Projected Gross Range: $25 million - $50 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $35 million

Moana – November 23 (Disney)

At the helm of Moana are Disney veterans John Musker & Ron Clements, who previously directed beloved classics such as The Little Mermaid and Aladdin, and most recently, The Princess and the Frog. Although Treasure Planet was not a huge hit, all of their directorial efforts have been well received critically, which indicates that Moana has a good chance of being a high-quality film.

Though it features a surprisingly small cast of characters for an animated film, one of these voice actors happens to be Dwayne Johnson, who has become a proven box office draw. It also doesn’t hurt that the film features songs from Lin-Manuel Miranda, the creator of the extremely popular Hamilton, which continues to sell out across the country.

Although it would seem like a prime spot for family audiences, the Wednesday before Thanksgiving has proven a surprisingly tricky time for animated releases. The last four years have seen several major underperformers, including Rise of the Guardians, Penguins of Madagascar, and Pixar's first flop, The Good Dinosaur. However, Moana was produced by Disney, who just three years ago broke box office records with Frozen, which rode good word of mouth and catchy songs to a $400.7 million domestic gross. While a gross that high may be out of reach, Moana shouldn’t fall to the same fate as the aforementioned disappointments, especially since the film has family audiences to itself for almost a month.

• Opening Weekend (5-day): $70 million
• Projected Gross Range: $150 million - $250 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $225 million

Rules Don’t Apply – November 23 (Fox)

Rules Don’t Apply marks Warren Beatty’s first acting role since 2001’s Town & Country as well as his first directorial effort since 1998’s Bulworth. Given that Beatty’s directing highlights include Reds and Heaven Can Wait, it seems very likely that Rules Don’t Apply will quite good. Will that translate into box office success?

It’s possible, but the film faces a bit of an uphill battle. Somewhat ironically, films dealing with the business of Hollywood tend to struggle at the box office, particularly those with a period setting. Last February’s star-studded Hail, Cesar!, for example, struggled to get past $30 million, despite strong reviews.

Additionally, a film like this would definitely benefit from having a proven box office draw. No offense to young leads Lily Collins or Alden Ehrenreich, but neither have yet shown an ability to draw in crowds (though that may change once Ehrenreich begins making appearances as Han Solo). Although Hail, Cesar’s gross may be out of reach, something close to Top Five ($25.3 million), another film about the entertainment industry, seems doable.

• Opening Weekend (5-day): $7 million
• Projected Gross Range: $15 million - $30 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $22 million

Studio Prediction for November:

As has been the trend for 2016, the penultimate month of the year will likely belong to Disney. Barring a major over-performance by Fantastic Beasts, the one-two punch of Doctor Strange and Moana should be more than enough to keep Disney in the lead.