An Analysis of the Indians-Yankees ALDS

During the Cleveland Indians’ somewhat successful run of the late 1990s (a team cannot be considered all that successful if it never win a World Series), they met up with the New York Yankees two times during the playoffs. In the 1997 ALDS, the Indians won in five games. The Yankees won the 1998 ALCS in six. Here’s a brief recap of each of those two series:

1997: Jaret Wright sold his soul to the devil and earned two post season wins. Dwight Gooden was so tough for the Tribe to hit that they signed him to a contract in 1998. Sandy Almoar Jr. became the only guy to get to Mariano Rivera until Luis Gonzalez did it in 2001.

1998: Jaret Wright got beat so badly in Game1 he was never the same. Chuck Knoblauch argued with the first base umpire so long that a gassed Enrique Wilson scored from first on a bunt. Bartolo Colon owned Game 3. Jim Thome’s bomb off “EL Duque” fell three feet short (and trust me, Joe Torre had no one to bring in without screwing up his rotation and was all set to pull Hernandez, who eventually settled down). If Thome hits it out, the Indians win that series in five games and win the 1998 World Series because the Padres sucked.

Since the Indians blew one against Kansas City over the weekend, they finished with a better record than the Angels, but not a better record than the Red Sox. Therefore, while they earned a date with the Bronx Bombers, the Tribe did not get to choose the length of the series. I’m not sure it matters.

Here is a position by position breakdown of the “not quite a rubber match”:

1B: Ryan Garko vs. Andy Phillips/Doug Mentkiewicz/Jason Giambi: Garko has shown himself to be a decent bat (.290 average, 20 homers) and good enough in the field not to be replaced. Phillips or Mentkiewicz plays if Giambi DHs; both are better defensively (who isn’t?) but have less home run potential than Giambi. A Garko vs. Giambi race around the bases would be pretty interesting as well, if you like slow people. Edge: Yanks defensively, Indians likely offensively.

2B: Asdrubal Cabrera vs, Robinson Cano: Cabrera was a late season call-up who has hit surprisingly well and is already the best defensive infielder on the team. Cano hit the game winning home run that sent me from a minor league baseball game to bachelor party festivities in Atlantic City when my buddy Rory got married in 2004. Cano is not much defensively. Edge: Indians.

SS: Jhonny Peralta vs. Derek Jeter: The Lou Gherig of the modern era versus a guy who kicks the ball around the infield like David Beckham. Oh, and did you know Jeter has a pretty good record of coming through in the clutch? Edge: Yankees

3B: Casey Blake vs. Alex Rodriguez: Ummm…next. Edge: Yankees (although Blake is hot heading into October and has the potential to be Scott Brosius while A-Rod is A-Rod in October until proven otherwise).

LF: Kenny Lofton/Jason Michaels vs. Hideki Matsui: I’d actually rather see Michaels start since Lofton can be used in more ways off the bench. Matsui produces solid numbers year after year and is a good baseball player. He is also, however, an incredibly ugly looking individual. Edge: Yankees.

CF: Grady Sizemore vs. Melky Cabrera: Sizemore strikes out too much, but is a superstar in the making while the guy in pinstripes has a first name that sounds like a Southern eighth-grade health teacher describing the consistency and color of semen. Edge: Indians

RF: Franklin Guitierrez vs. Bobby Abreau: Abreau has skated by off of his reputation as underrated for so long, that he is overrated. Every one of his skills has declined since he won the 2005 Home Run Derby. Guitierrez was a revelation and is a possible future All-Star. He’s that good. Slight edge: Indians.

DH: Travis Hafner vs. Johnny Damon/Jason Giambi: This is simple. If the Hafner who hits .300 and 40 homers is the Hafner that shows up in October, then the Indians have the edge by a lot. If the guy who looked lost all year shows up, look out. Edge: Indians (hopefully).

SP 1: C.C. Sabathia vs. Chien Men Wang: TheYankee lineup is very left-handed and Sabathia eats lefties for lunch. Look at him. C.C. is the best pitcher in the American League this year. You have to ride him until he drops. Wang is a sinkerballer who has pitched very well this season, but strikes me as a guy the Indians can make throw a lot of pitches. Edge: Indians.

SP 2: Fausto Carmona vs. Andy Pettite? Here’s a tough one. Do you go with the young guy who can be flat out awesome (and has been) or the veteran who has won so many post-season games? I say you go with the power arm. Edge: Indians

SP 3: Jake Westbrook vs. Roger Clemens: Westbrook makes me nervous. Let’s assume the Indians hold serve at home. If you’re a Yankee fan, do you really want Clemens, whose body has failed him late this season, going with your season on the line? Edge: Wash.

SP 4: Paul Byrd vs. Mike Mussina: Although the edge goes to Moose if he is the Mussina of old. Byrd throws too many strikes; I can’t see how the Yankees don’t mash him. Substitute Mussina for Clemens at SP 3 and do you feel any better? Edge: Wash.

Bullpen (non-closer): Raffy Left, Raffy Right, Jensen Lewis, Aaron Laffey, and Aaron Fultz vs. A Bunch of Stiffs and Joba Chamberlain: The whole series could come down to whether the Indians can get to the Yankee bullpen. Other than Chamberlain (who has been awesome), the Yankees have no one. The Indians can get from the sixth to the eighth with a lead. Lewis is underrated; he throws gas and his delivery confuses hitters. Edge: Indians.

Closer: Joe Borowski vs. Mariano “Jesus Christ” Rivera. Borowski pitching in Yankee Stadium with a one-run lead is every Tribe fan’s nightmare. Rivera, while human, is still Rivera. Edge: Yankees.

Look. This series is real simple. If the Indians win Games 1 and 2, they win the Series, in particular if they are able to knock out either starter before the sixth. They’ll have to hit, though, and they have been streaky. The Yankees have owned the Indians this season and played great baseball since May. But in the playoffs, pitching is supposed to win out. The Indians have the better pitching. Tribe in 4.

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