To the average observer, Emmy voters are a capricious bunch. Within every seemingly unpredictable mass of data, however, lies a pattern. Greendale Community College student Abed Nadir thinks has run the analysis, and is using the knowledge to predict which show will win Best Comedy at the 2011 Emmys. The pattern is actually quite simple: A represents “shows that have won an Emmy, so it seems like they’ll win again,” B denotes “shows that haven’t won yet, so it seems like their turn.” In classifying all the Best Comedy winners since 1953, Nadir noted a recurring sequence “ABBA”:
B A B B A B A B B A A B B A B B A A B B A A A B A A B B A B B A B A B A A B B A A A A B B B B B B A B B A A B
Nadir concludes that The Big C, led by Laura Linney, is the inevitable victor. Read his explanation after the jump.
Nadir elaborates on Variety:
The “ABBA” pattern emerges soon and repeats often, as people’s urge to shake up a system always results in systemic shaking. I totally get it: I once missed a week of school by trying not to touch my chin 7,000 times. The stretches of non-ABBA you see are “cable scares,” like when we just kept giving Emmys to Frasier until Larry Sanders went away. Think of TV as Rain Man getting through HBO’s smoke alarm by chanting “I like the guy from Cheers.”
After ruling out other contenders like The Office, The Big Bang Theory, 30 Rock and Modern Family, Nadir explains why The Big C has the edge over fellow A-possibility Parks and Recreation.
The Big C, on the other hand, has the advantage of only having to be mildly humorous to be considered hysterically funny. Laugh once at cancer, you’re laughing A LOT.
That’s when simple logic enters the picture: We’ll give it to The Big C this year, because we know it’s their only chance to get it. By next year, Laura Linney’s character will either have died, or the “Fonz” of her diagnosis will have “grown the beard” of remission.
I’m not totally convinced by his logic, but it’s an interesting approach, and the man knows his pop culture. Check out Nadir’s full analysis here and judge for yourself.