The 2013 Emmy Awards have arrived and will air this Sunday, during which most of us will be watching / going into emotional duress from Breaking Bad. But for those watching the awards and keeping up with the winners, losers, snubs and surprises (and potentially putting money on it), after the jump are my predictions for this year. The exact alchemy, casting of runes, meditation and throwing of darts that make up my patented formula cannot be revealed, but I will share the results — without taking any responsibility for what actually happens. Hit the jump for who everyone thinks will win, who should win, and a few upset picks to keep things interesting
Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Comedy Series:
Adam Driver, Girls
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Ed O’Neill, Modern Family
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live
Tony Hale, Veep (should)
Who Will Win: Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Upset Pick: Adam Driver, Girls
Who Should Win: Tony Hale, Veep
Ty Burrell is virtually a lock in this category, but there’s buzz about Adam Driver’s chances, too. Though I despised where the script went in this season of Girls, Driver did have a stand-out performance. Tony Hale is critically loved, but won’t win. Ed O’Neill is underrated on the show, but his chances are also slim.
Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series
Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Jane Lynch, Glee
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
Anna Chlumsky, Veep
Who Will Win: Someone from Modern Family (probably Julie Bowen but could be Sofia Vergara)
Bowen has been a repeat winner in this category, even though Vergara deserves some of that love as well. And as much as everyone is talking about nostalgia votes for 30 Rock, no one is mentioning Krakowski, because no one ever does. She’s been a comedic force on that show even when it went through questionable times. She deserves it, but it will truly be out of left field if she is recognized for it.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
Louis C.K., Louie
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Who Will and Should Win: Louis C.K., Louie
Upset Pick: Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
Louis C.K. is on a roll and getting a lot of love from critics in other awards in the year (which admittedly means nothing when it comes to the Emmys, but I have a spidey sense). Because Arrested Development was curiously shut out of so many other categories for acting as well as Best Comedy, there could be a vote of acknowledgement for Bateman, even though this performance didn’t feel as strong as his original one. And of course, there are veteran winners Alec Baldwin and Jim Parsons, either of whom could easily take the statue.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Laura Dern, Enlightened
Lena Dunham, Girls
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Who Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Upset Pick: Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Dark Horse: Laura Dern, Enlightened
I can’t get into coulds and shoulds here — there’s just a lot of talent. Tina Fey may get love as acknowledgement for her years on 30 Rock, but others may feel it’s finally time to give her friend Amy Poehler recognition for a long-snubbed role. Julia Louis-Dreyfus is the lead pick on most lists (and she is great), but I would go with Poehler to possibly take it. There’s also a slight chance that Enlightenedfans’ clamoring as made some impact on voters, especially now that the show is over, but it’s unlikely to show here.
The Big Bang Theory
Who Will Win: Modern Family
Upset Pick Who Should Win: Louie
People who are saying Modern Family should win this have not been paying attention. The most recent season delivered some laughs, but it was not at all as strong as prior seasons. Still, it’s a perennial voter favorite. Sometimes the voters like to congratulate themselves on an “edgy” pick though, and Louie could get that nod because it’s innovative, yet lacks the controversy of Girls. 30 Rock will probably also be in the mix for nostalgia’s sake, but I would be surprised if it took home the gold (I’ve been surprised before!) Veep had an outstanding year, but I don’t think it will be rewarded for it here.
Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Drama Series
Bobby Cannavale, Boardwalk Empire
Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
Jim Carter, Downton Abbey
Peter Dinklage, Game Of Thrones
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Who Will Win: Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Upset Pick: Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad
Emotional Choice: Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
Even though Emmy voters are not supposed to look at current episodes of a show that is airing past the voting cutoff, who can ignore Breaking Bad? Aaron Paul always deserves recognition, but Jonathan Banks gave an outstanding performance last year as well. Mandy Patinkin deserved a nomination last year, so a win here could be a reward, even though this wasn’t Homeland‘s best effort. But he’s an older actor, and voters have historically liked that (see the next category for more on that).
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Emilia Clarke, Game Of Thrones
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Morena Baccarin, Homeland
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Who Will Win: Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Upset Pick Who Should Probably Win: Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
I love Dame Maggie Smith. She’s a continual bright spot on Downton when the rest of the show has faltered. She showcased even more of her talents this year too, counseling members of the family on a range of tragedies, holding everyone together. But Anna Gunn has been so incredible in her role as Skyler White, especially as Skyler has had to deal with many more problems regarding Walt’s transgressions. Of course, don’t forget Christina Hendricks for an emotional turn on Mad Men this year; but when competing against those other two, her chances feel slight.
Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
Damian Lewis, Homeland
Who Will Win: Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Close Second: Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
Upset Pick: Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Bryan Cranston. I mean, of course, right? But Kevin Spacey might sneak into the mix for his portrayal of D.C. power player Frank Underwood on Netflix’s House of Cards. His performance was outstanding, but more outstanding than Cranston’s? Always keep Jon Hamm in the mix as well. Just because Mad Men has lost its favored status doesn’t mean voters have forgotten it.
Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Connie Britton, Nashville
Claire Danes, Homeland
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
Vera Farmiga, Bates Motel
Kerry Washington, Scandal
Robin Wright, House of Cards
Who Will Win: Claire Danes, Homeland
Close Second: Kerry Washington, Scandal
Upset Pick Who Should Win: Vera Farmiga, Bates Motel
For all of the issues Homeland had last year, Claire Danes was not one of them. Her emotional performance is always a highlight. Having said that, Bates Motel viewers will know that Vera Farmiga gave one of the most unusual and spellbinding takes her character Norma that could have been imagined, and she is the definition of a stand-out role. Still, Kerry Washington is a strong pick for Scandal, a zeitgeist favorite, as her portrayal of the deeply conflicted Olivia Pope.
Who Will Win and Should Win: Breaking Bad
Upset Pick: You’re joking. Ok, I guess House of Cards.
All the awards. All of ‘em. And next year, too. The Breaking Bad juggernaut is cresting, and Emmy voters who weren’t convinced by its spectacular collection of episodes last year are probably feeling the love right now from its last few. Still, Houses of Cards could be a contender, and way in the back, Game of Thrones might make a play (though keep in mind the voters don’t usually like fantasy enough to give it the biggest prizes).
Miniseries or Movie
Behind the Candelabra
American Horror Story
Top of the Lake
Who Will Win: Behind the Candelabra
Upset Pick: American Horror Story
Top of the Lake was incredible, and should scoop up awards where it can. Sadly, this category is unlikely to be one of them. Behind the Candelabra was a lot more high profile and likely to win, though American Horror Story has seemed to haunt viewers (and think pieces) all year.
There’s always going to be at least one winner (or loser) who is going to shock the pants off of everyone, but that is of course impossible to guess. My shocking upset pick is going to be Mad Men for Best Drama. It’s not that shocking in the scheme of things, and yet, it kind of would be this year. Any major Mad Men awards would be interesting this year given the people and shows that the nominees are up against, so if you want a real upset pick, look there first.
The Emmy Awards air September 22 at 8 p.m. Neil Patrick Harris will be hosting.