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THE DARK KNIGHT RISES Set Visit Preview and 4 Awesome New Posters!Our Emmy Picks and Predictions – Drama
by Brendan Bettinger Posted:August 28th, 2010 at 3:03 am
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It’s officially Emmy weekend, folks, with the 62nd Annual Primetime Emmy Awards broadcasting live at 8PM EST (5PM PST) this Sunday on NBC. There are a lot of questions to be answered: Can Mad Men pull off a threepeat? Will Hugh Laurie finally be recognized for six seasons of brilliance on House six seasons? How will the presenters of Supporting Actress pronounce Archie Panjabi?
After the jump, Ethan Anderton and I take a look the major drama categories at decide which nominees have the best chance of winning, as well as who we think is the most deserving regardless of the results. (Check our comedy picks here.)
Here’s the basic format. After listing the nominees, I argue the case for my favorite nominee under “Should win.” I try to determine who the Emmy voters like best with “Will win.” And because Ethan’s opinions are categorically more insightful than my own, I sought his help for this column: his thoughts are denoted by “Ethan’s Pick.”
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA
Aaron Paul – “Breaking Bad”
Martin Short – “Damages”
Terry O’Quinn – “Lost”
Michael Emerson – “Lost”
John Slattery – “Mad Men”
Andre Braugher – “Men of a Certain Age”
Should win: Aaron Paul. I almost want to give yet another statue to Braugher, but have you seen Breaking Bad? Dude can monologue.
Will win: Terry O’Quinn. This is the category where any Lost nostalgia is most likely to arise, where Emerson and O’Quinn have won two out of the last three. O’Quinn gets the nod because he got to play two different characters in the final season — always a great showcase if you seek an Emmy.
Ethan’s Pick: Terry O’Quinn or Michael Emerson. Both of these guys deserve all the awards they can collect for their turns on Lost, but this final season brought it to a whole new level. Can we just give it to both of them?
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SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
Sharon Gless – “Burn Notice”
Rose Byrne – “Damages”
Archie Panjabi – “The Good Wife”
Christine Baranski – “The Good Wife”
Christina Hendricks – “Mad Men”
Elisabeth Moss – “Mad Men”
Should win: Elisabeth Moss. During the first season of Mad Men, I kept thinking, That’s President Bartlett’s meek daughter from The West Wing. I’m so far beyond that now. Hendricks deserves credit for making Joan my favorite Mad Men character, but Moss is brilliant.
Will win: Sharon Gless. I have literally no idea who will win. But Gless has both the most Emmy nominations (10) and wins (2), and it’s a fun pick, so why not?
Ethan’s Pick: Christina Hendricks. Her character grew more than ever during the third season of Mad Men, and this voluptuous beauty has the acting talent to back up the assets that her form-fitting attire always accentuates.
LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA
Bryan Cranston – “Breaking Bad”
Michael C. Hall – “Dexter”
Kyle Chandler – “Friday Night Lights”
Hugh Laurie – “House”
Matthew Fox – “Lost”
Jon Hamm – “Mad Men”
Should win: Kyle Chandler. After four seasons of astounding work, Chandler’s inclusion seems like such a fluke. I want him to get a win on the books before FNL signs off after next season.
Will win: Hugh Laurie. Honestly, I’m just putting all six names into a hat, taking Chandler’s name back out, and picking at random. Hall had a strong season opposite John Lithgow’s Emmy-winning role, plus public sympathy due to his battle with cancer. Cranston has maintained the path of greatness that earned him wins in 2008 and 2009. Fox could benefit from a wave of Lost nostalgia. And the voters are aware they’ll need to honor Hamm before the end of Mad Men. Laurie has a tremendous submission episode (season premiere “Broken”), and gets the edge by virtue of being “Most Overdue.”
Ethan’s Pick: Bryan Cranston. This is Cranston’s award to lose, but the competition from Huge Laurie (House M.D.) and Jon Hamm (Mad Men) is quite staggering. The third season of AMC’s drama brought Hamm’s best performances yet, and Laurie just continues to impress every season as Dr. Gregory House slowly but surely grows up. However, Cranston is a tour de force on Breaking Bad.
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LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
Kyra Sedgwick – “The Closer”
Glenn Close – “Damages”
Connie Britton – “Friday Night Lights”
Julianna Margulies – “The Good Wife”
Mariska Hargitay – “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit”
January Jones – “Mad Men”
Should win: Connie Britton. I’m not equipped to judge this one fairly, as I only watch FNL and Mad Men. But the reasoning behind the Chandler pick above applies here as well.
Will win: Glenn Close. Marguiles will give her a run for her money, but Close’s “five-time-Oscar-nominee” trump card should still have enough pull with Emmy voters for the threepeat.
Ethan’s Pick: Julianna Marguiles. This is the category in which I’m the least familiar with the work nominated (with the exception of Jones), but it sounds like Marguiles is a lock for this award.
OUTSTANDING DRAMA
“Breaking Bad”
“Dexter”
“The Good Wife”
“Lost”
“Mad Men”
“True Blood”
Should win: Breaking Bad. It’s the best show on television. I really mean that. No other show, not even Mad Men, reaches the heights that Breaking Bad does each week.
Will win: Mad Men. Mad Men does come really close, to the heights of Breaking Bad. The third season was just as great as the first two that won Emmys: I don’t see voters disembarking the Mad Men train just yet.
Ethan’s Pick: Lost. While there might be some dissension amongst the ranks, I really think the final season of Lost contains some of the best television I’ve seen. What could stop this win is a somewhat lukewarm reception to the finale episode and the fact that the first and arguably best season already won Outstanding Drama in 2005. On a sidenote, I wouldn’t be upset if this award ended up going to Mad Men again which had one hell of a third season.
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I agree with your results for the most part, but I think this should really be the year for Dexter. Don’t get me wrong, I agree Breaking Bad is -one- of the best shows on TV, but this last season of Dexter really hit me more than Breaking did. Lithgow was stunning and I believe Michael C. Hall upped his game because of it.
I really hope Hall and Dexter win their respective awards. If not, I understand but I think Mad Men needs to be dethroned as best Drama. If Dexter or Breaking Bad (Or hell, even Lost) wins, I’ll be content.
I’ll be upset if Lost doesn’t win. I haven’t seen Breaking Bad, but Lost is a helluva lot better than any other of the nominees.
I tried to watch Mad Men, I think I stopped on the sixth episode or so. I just couldn’t get into it, I didn’t care about any characters (hell, I didn’t even know any character names except Don Draper), and nothing really happened. I’m obviously in the minority, and probably not the right demographic seeing as some of my favorite shows are Friday Night Lights, Supernatural, Lost, and Parenthood.
As long as another legal drama doesn’t win (Good Wife) I’ll be happy.
Also, why do I always picture Emmy voters as 50 year old fat white guys sitting in a board room watching a small TV on one of those tall school TV holder things?
Lost is good, but it’s not ‘a helluva lot better’ than Dexter. Do yourself a huge favor and check out Dexter and Breaking Bad. Hands down the two strongest shows on TV right now in my opinion.
Oops. Delete this!
I watched most of the shows above, but Lost as a complete body of work is more groundbreaking and complex in storytelling style to the more traditional dramas that it is up against. It not just about the story, its about how the story is told. And Lost should be recognized for that
I think that because the acting is more grounded in shows like Mad Men, Dexter, and Breaking Bad, Lost seems to be not taken as seriously. But because Lost’s major theme is the story of the broken individual’s place in a community with a mythological flavor, heightened acting is what is called for.
Intellectually, I know that the Emmy’s are a popularity contest, marketing tool and industry self congratulatory lovefest in one, but a polarizing show like Lost shouldn’t be penelized because its tone is colored in metaphor and archetypes and not in reality.
why the hell was’nt John Lithgow nominated?
He submitted under “Guest Actor,” and won earlier in the week
No love for Michael C. Hall this year? I thought the last season of Dexter was one of the best and it wasn’t a fluke when he won the Golden Globe a few months back.
No love for Michael C. Hall this year? I thought the last season of Dexter was one of the best and it wasn’t a fluke when he won the Golden Globe a few months back.
Lost actually has more acting wins than Mad Men (0) and Dexter (0). Breaking Bad also has two thanks to Cranston.
And Lost still has one more Outstanding Drama win than Dexter and Breaking Bad.
All these shows are serialized, but Lost may be *so* serialized that it suffers at the Emmys, where individual episodes are more important than the whole season.
He has a very good chance, and if he wins, he is very deserving. That show is nothing without him.
But it’s a loaded category, and somehow neither Ethan nor I had Hall in our three picks. You could easily swap him for “should win” or “will win” with me.
I wouldn’t mind if LOST wins just because it’s been my favorite show for the last 6 years. ANd i LOVED the finale.
But if I want to keep it real then BREAKING BAD should win. As individual seasons, BB was better than LOST.
But if MAD MEN wins then I really need to start watching it because BB was fuc*ing awesome.
You really need to start watching it.
You can take my word for it, because we’re obviously very similar. Lost is my favorite TV show of all time, I love Conan O’Brien more than some members of my family, and Breaking Bad and Mad Men tie for best TV show still airing new episodes, in my opinion.
So yeah. It’s different than, but every bit as good as Breaking Bad.
If Kyle and Connie both walk away empty handed, I’m gonna be PISSED.
Also, where the hell are the FNL season Blu-rays Universal?
Fair points, Brendan. I do agree with you on the heavy serialization tip. But you wouldn’t consider a Return of the King-type set up for the ceremony? I mean Mad Men and Breaking Bad will be back next year.
I just watched Michael C. Hall’s Emmy submitted episode. (I’ve seen all six Emmy submitted eps.)
Hall’s acting arc was pretty tight in this ep as compared to the large emotional arcs given in the performances of Chandler, Cranston, and Laurie. Especially when compared to Lithgow’s performance. (Although, Lithgow’s deserved win may be a tip off of the winner in the Best Actor, Drama category.) IMO, I don’t think Hall gave the best performance of the submitted episodes.
I’m with you, Ryan. Kyle and Connie are my picks in their categories. (I just finished watching all the Best Actor, Drama episode submissions and Kyle Chandler was just phenomenal in “East of Dillon.”)
And I’d love to see the writer of “The Son” win for that episode. Friday Night Lights is way past due for some serious Emmy love!!! They deserve the casting Emmy too for re-casting this season.
I’ve seen Dexter, but not Breaking Bad. Don’t care for Dexter at all, I can’t stand Michael C. Hall for some reason. I just think the acting in Dexter is pretty spotty. And on top of it being my least favorite genre of television (crime drama) the cinematography is annoyingly washed out for me. The tropical look I guess…