It was another fantastic year for television, and the 2014 Emmy nominations mostly captured that (...more or less). But when it comes to winners, the Emmys can be a wily beast, as seen in last year's bevy of baffling wins (Jeff Daniels for Newsroom, Bobby Cannavale for Boardwalk Empire, among others).  Expect the expected with the Emmys, usually -- unless they go completely off the wall.This year, I have requested the expertise of Collider's own Adam Chitwood to assist me with picks, not only because he closely follows the awards circuit year-round, he also has a much better track record than I do for picking awards winners in general.  Hit the jump for our guesses about how the results will play out and why in our 2014 Emmy predictions.  The 66th Primetime Emmy Awards, hosted by Seth Meyers, will air live on NBC Monday, August 25th at 8pm ET/5pm PT.
Drama Series
Allisonâs Picks
Should Win: True Detective
Will Win: True Detective
Dark Horse: Breaking Bad
It's hard to imagine Breaking Bad as a dark horse, but True Detective's inaugural season was such an unexpected gem in every arena (acting, writing, directing -- heck, even T. Bone Burnett's soundtrack), that its impact will be impossible for Emmy voters to ignore (and they love a new contender).  If this was any other season of Breaking Bad than the final one, though, I'd say True Detective was a lock.  Though Breaking Badâs excellent final run could easily win, ultimately, HBO owns the voting cards, and it's almost a sure bet they play them here.
Adamâs PicksÂ
Should Win: True Detective
Will Win: True Detective
Dark Horse: Breaking BadÂ
First off, thanks to Allison for asking me to join in on the Emmy fun. Second, I have no idea what Iâm doing re: predicting TV awards, so letâs get started! This hereâs a two-way race between True Detective and Breaking Bad, and boy is it a hell of a Sophieâs Choice. If you take the entirety of Breaking Badâs final season I think it might run away with the lead here, but the fact that AMC split it into two halves slightly hinders its impact. True Detective, on the other hand, was just a phenomenal piece of storytelling from beginning to end that came out of nowhere. The buzz has died down a tad, and I could certainly see Breaking Bad pulling out the win, but I think True Detective takes this one home by a hair.
Lead Actress in a Drama
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- Claire Danes â Homeland
- Michelle Dockery â Downton Abbey
- Julianna Margulies â The Good Wife
- Kerry Washington â Scandal
- Robin Wright â House of Cards
Allisonâs Picks
Should Win: Julianna Marguiles
Will Win: Lizzy Caplan
Dark Horse: Kerry Washington
Last year's Emmy awards showed a preference for new faces (something the Emmys don't usually have much of), which is why I'm giving the edge to Lizzy Caplan for her fearless portrayal in Masters of Sex's first season.  On the flip side, perennial nominee and former winner Julianna Margulies, and her show The Good Wife, had an exceptional season, and Margulies could be rewarded for it after a few years away from the podium.  Kerry Washington is most certainly also in the mix, and a win would definitely not be an upset.
Adamâs PicksÂ
Should Win: Robin Wright
Will Win: Kerry Washington
Dark Horse: Lizzy CaplanÂ
The heat of Homelandâs first season is long gone by now, and even though the Emmys do like to stick to their old favorites, I have feeling Danes will be giving up this category this year. Robin Wright was absolutely the MVP of House of Cardsâ second season, but critical reaction to season two was a tad more mixed overall. Lizzy Caplan has been generating some serious buzz, but Iâm not sure enough Academy members have seen Masters of Sex for her to win. Which leads me to think that Kerry Washington might take this trophy home for Scandalâs breakout season.Â
Lead Actor in a Drama
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- Jeff Daniels â The Newsroom
- Jon Hamm â Mad Men
- Woody Harrelson â True Detective
- Matthew McConaughey â True Detective
- Kevin Spacey â House of CardsÂ
Allisonâs Picks
Should Win: Matthew McConaughey
Will Win: Mathew McConaughey
Dark Horse: Bryan Cranston
Once again, I have Breaking Bad and True Detective squaring off.  It's also, again, almost inconceivable to think of Bryan Cranston as a dark horse.  But the McConaissance is strong, and this could still be his year, keeping his awards run going.  On the other hand, Emmy voters could be looking to reward Cranston for his many years of exceptional performances.  Tough call.  This category last year had one of the biggest surprises taking home the prize, but it was also an actor (like McConaughey) who was not a regular on the list.
Adamâs PicksÂ
Should Win: Matthew McConaughey
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey
Dark Horse: Bryan CranstonÂ
Talk about a stacked category. Iâve resigned myself to the fact that the Academy will never reward Jon Hamm for his impeccable work on Mad Men, and in some ways Woody Harrelsonâs work on True Detective was more integral to its overall success than McConaugheyâs, but the latter got the more showy role--and boy did McConaughey make it sing. Itâs a shame that Cranstonâs final season of Breaking Bad happened to coincide with both True Detective and the McConnaisance, but somewhat surprisingly the McConaughey backlash has yet to come. His work on True Detective was transcendent, and I have a feeling Emmy voters wonât give up the chance to get him on the stage. Or they could continue their WTF streak and give it to Jeff Daniels again, in which case all hell might genuinely break loose (and this is coming from someone who actually likes The Newsroom).Â
Supporting Actress in a Drama
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- Joanne Froggatt â Downton Abbey
- Anna Gunn â Breaking Bad
- Lena Headey â Game of Thrones
- Christina Hendricks â Mad Men
- Maggie Smith â Downton AbbeyÂ
Allisonâs Picks
Should Win: Anna Gunn
Will Win: Christine Baranski
Dark Horse: Maggie Smith
My hunch is that if The Good Wife is not recognized elsewhere in the acting categories, Christine Baranski could get a win here.  It's definitely deserved, but again, it's a strong category that, frankly, could go in many different directions.  Anna Gunn was excellent in Breaking Bad's final season, and of course Maggie Smith is always a favorite.  Dame Maggie had a little more to her role in this season of Downton, and that could make the difference, as she is a recurring Emmy favorite.
Adamâs PicksÂ
Should Win: Anna Gunn
Will Win: Anna Gunn
Dark Horse: Maggie SmithÂ
Gunn submitted the best episode in Breaking Badâs entire run, âOzymandiasâ, for consideration, in which she turns in a phenomenal performance. The Emmys do love them some Maggie Smith, but Iâd be surprised if Gunn doesnât win a very deserved second trophy for her stellar work in the concluding episodes of Breaking Bad.
Supporting Actor in a Drama
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- Josh Charles â The Good Wife
- Peter Dinklage â Game of Thrones
- Mandy Patinkin â Homeland
- Aaron Paul â Breaking Bad
- Jon Voight â Ray DonovanÂ
Allisonâs Picks
Should Win: Aaron Paul
Will Win: Aaron Paul
Dark Horse: Jon Voight
This stacked category is a tough call every year, and is probably the biggest toss-up.  Aaron Paul was absolutely incredible in Breaking Bad, though, and (like every year) deserves the win (bitch!).  But Jon Voight's magnetic presence in Ray Donovan could be an upset, since he was a big part of what made that show's first season such a great watch, and (as I mention elsewhere), Emmy voters like rewarding older actors where they can.
Adamâs PicksÂ
Should Win: Peter Dinklage
Will Win: Josh Charles
Dark Horse: Aaron PaulÂ
This is a tough category. Dinklage did some of his best work to date in this season of Game of Thrones, Josh Charles had a buzzy sendoff in the underrated The Good Wife, and Aaron Paul was spectacular as always, but played a more minor role in these last few episodes of Breaking Bad. Any one of the three could (and should) win, but Iâm predicting a slight upset with Charles taking the trophy.Â
Writing for a Drama Series
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- Breaking Bad, âOzymandasâ â Moira Walley-Beckett
- Game of Thrones, âThe Childrenâ â David Benioff & D.B. Weiss
- House of Cards, âChapter 14â â Beau Willimon
- True Detective, âThe Secret Fate of All Lifeâ â Nic Pizzolatto
Allisonâs Picks
Should Win: âOzymandiasâ
Will Win: âFelinaâ
Dark Horse: âThe Secret Fate of All Lifeâ
Though the recent Nic Pizzolatto-focused backlash (and the backlash to the backlash) might have lessened his new star-power somewhat, it's unlikely to have affected Emmy voters.  Instead, their loyalties will likely be divided between two Breaking Bad episodes.  "Ozymandias" is not only one of the best hours of Breaking Bad, it's one of the best on TV of all time.  But Emmy voters don't necessarily think that way.  They will want to reward Vince Gilligan individually, which, if that doesn't come in the directing category, is likely to come here.
Adamâs PicksÂ
Should Win: âOzymandiasâ
Will Win: âOzymandiasâ
Dark Horse: âThe Secret Fate of All Lifeâ
Another category in which it really comes down to Breaking Bad vs. True Detective. The dual nods for Breaking Bad could work against the series, with some voting for the strongest episode âOzymandiasâ and others wanting to reward showrunner Vince Gilligan for the solid series finale. The True Detective finale was fantastic but wasnât the showâs strongest episode and Pizzolatto has been in a bit of hot water as of late, so Iâm giving the slight edge to Breaking Bad and hoping the Academy chooses wisely with the masterpiece âOzymandias.âÂ
Directing for a Drama Series
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- Breaking Bad, âFelinaâ â Vince Gilligan
- Downton Abbey, âEpisode Oneâ â David Evans
- Game of Thrones, âThe Watchers on the Wallâ â Neil Marshall
- House of Cards, âChapter 14â â Carl Franklin
- True Detective, âWho Goes Thereâ â Cary Joji Fukunaga
Allisonâs Picks
Should Win: âWho Goes Thereâ
Will Win: âFelinaâ
Dark Horse: âThe Watchers on the Wallâ
Cary Joji Fukunaga was arguably the element that made True Detective so incredibly distinct.  Under his direction, the bayous came alive, the sky sparkled, and McConaughey's facial shadows have never been deeper.  But his most notable contribution was the much-discussed six-minute, uncut, nightmarish tracking sequence at the end of "Who Goes There" that should have sealed the deal on his win.  However, Vince Gilligan could pull out a win for "Felina," especially if Gilligan doesn't get a win in another category (why Rian Johnson wasn't nominated for "Ozymandias" is another of the great Emmy mysteries -- he would have been a shoo-in).
Adamâs PicksÂ
Should Win: âWho Goes Thereâ
Will Win: âWho Goes Thereâ
Dark Horse: âThe Watchers on the WallâÂ
Somewhat surprisingly, Breaking Bad has never won this category. Though the Academy could feel like rewarding Gilligan simply for crafting one of the best shows in history, this category tends to veer towards more showy winners (Fincher for House of Cards, Scorsese for Boardwalk Empire), so Iâm thinking Fukunaga rightfully takes the win for his phenomenal work on True Detective. The directing on the show was as equally important as the writing and performances, and it helps that âWho Goes Thereâ is the episode that ended with Fukunagaâs insane long take.
Continue Reading on Page 2 for the Comedy, Miniseries, and TV Movie CategoriesÂ
Comedy Series
Allisonâs Picks
Should Win: Orange Is the New Black
Will Win: Orange Is the New Black
Dark Horse: Silicon Valley
Orange Is The New Black's nomination is actually in reference to its first season, because of the oddity of the Emmy calendar.  Jenji Kohan's show came out of nowhere, with no expectations, and immediately became part of the cultural zeitgeist (as well as another marquee hit for Netflix).  Mike Judge's Silicon Valley had a similar breakthrough role on HBO, which hasn't had a really stellar comedy that is strictly a comedy (unlike Girls or Looking, which are more drama) in many years.  It will come down to HBO and Netflix vying against each other in number of Emmy voters, which could put Silicon out front in an upset.  Toss up, but the money is on Orange is the New Black.
Adamâs Picks
Should Win: Veep
Will Win: Orange Is the New Black
Dark Horse: Veep
The buzz for Orange Is the New Black was impossible to ignore once the show premiered last summer, and when it returned for a second season this year (which will be eligible in next yearâs Emmys), the quality and word-of-mouth was still just as strong. Itâs bold storytelling to be sure, and while I personally think Veep hit a fantastic comedy stride and was the funnier of the two, I wonât argue with an Orange winâwhich I expect is going to happen.
Lead Actress in a Comedy
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- Edie Falco â Nurse Jackie
- Julia Louis-Dreyfus â Veep
- Melissa McCarthy â Mike & Molly
- Amy Poehler â Parks and Recreation
- Taylor Schilling â Orange Is the New BlackÂ
Allisonâs Picks
Should Win: Taylor Schilling
Will Win: Taylor Schilling
Dark Horse: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Among Orange Is The New Black's stellar ensemble, it was the journey of Taylor Shilling's Piper that tied things together and anchored the many disparate stories.  Whether you love or hate Piper, though, Shilling's portrayal was a singular performance that deserves recognition (which she will likely receive).  But again, Netflix here is battling the might of HBO's power voting Emmy bloc, which could give Julia Louis-Dreyfus another doorstopper (she's always incredible on Veep).
Adamâs Picks
Should Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Dark Horse: Taylor Schilling
Veep absolutely shined this season, and Julia Louis-Dreyfusâ submission episode âCrateâ featured one of the funniest scenes of the year. Iâll be surprised if she doesnât take home this trophy for the second year in a row, but if not, look for Taylor Schilling to enjoy what could be an Orange Is the New Black landslide.Â
Lead Actor in a Comedy
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- Don Cheadle â House of Lies
- Ricky Gervais â Derek
- Matt LeBlanc â Episodes
- William H. Macy â Shameless
- Jim Parsons â The Big Bang Theory
Allisonâs Picks
Should Win: Don Cheadle
Will Win: Don Cheadle
Dark Horse: Jim Parsons
I'll be honest, I've never seen House of Lies.  But every year, there is a handful of people who do say it's outstanding, and that Don Cheadle is incredible, so I'm going to go out on a limb here and say this is going to be Cheadle's year to take home the tin.  But if Emmy voters are feeling traditional, they'll go with Parsons (and the smart money might go there).
Adamâs Picks
Should Win: Louis C.K.
Will Win: Jim Parsons
Dark Horse: Don Cheadle
What a weird category. Few of these performances are actually straight comedy, which makes it tough to suss out who is the best âcomedyâ actor. Louis C.K. was stellar, as always, on Louie, but this season was the showâs weirdest yet and may have been offputting for some voters. When in doubt, though, think âtraditionalâ for Emmys, which is why I have a feeling Jim Parsons will win his fourth Emmy trophy this year.
Supporting Actress in a Comedy
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- Julie Bowen â Modern Family
- Anna Chlumsky â Veep
- Allison Janney â Mom
- Kate McKinnon â Saturday Night Live
- Kate Mulgrew â Orange Is the New Black
Allisonâs Picks
Should Win: Kate Mulgrew
Will Win: Allison Janney
Though it was Season Two of Orange Is The New Black where Kate Mulgrew really made her mark, "Red" was still an integral part of what made Season One a standout.  But it is Allison Janney who has garnered the most attention for her role in Mom (of all unexpected series).  Emmy voters are fond of rewarding actors and actresses who may have a few grey streaks (to put it delicately).  It will be between Mulgrew and Janney, with Janney pulling out the win.
Adamâs Picks
Should Win: Anna Chlumsky
Will Win: Allison Janney
Dark Horse: Kate Mulgrew
Anna Chlumsky is fantastic on Veep, and she certainly had a great year as she vied for the campaign manager job in classic Veep fashion. However, Allison Janney has been generating a lot of heat in this category. I have not seen a single episode of Mom, but Iâm told Janney is swell on the show with her fair share of emotional moments as well as comedic turns. As a massive West Wing fan, this does not surprise me. If Janney does win, this will be her second trophy this year as she also won for her guest role on Masters of Sex. If Orange Is the New Black starts to steamroll though, look for Big Red to possibly play the spoiler.
Supporting Actor in a Comedy
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- Andre Braugher â Brooklyn Nine-Nine
- Ty Burrell â Modern Family
- Adam Driver â Girls
- Jesse Tyler Ferguson â Modern Family
- Tony Hale â VeepÂ
Allisonâs Picks
Should Win: Tony Hale
Will Win: Tony Hale
Dark Horse: Adam Driver
Tony Hale has had an outstanding run on Veep, and is long overdue for recognition (this, like many of my picks though, could just be wishful thinking).  If not, though, I think it will be Adam Driver -- whose star is on the rise, and who single-handedly makes Girls a better show -- sneaking in with a win, if Emmy voters are feeling edgy.  (They often aren't, though).
Adamâs Picks
Should Win: Andre Braugher
Will Win: Tony Hale
Dark Horse: Adam Driver
The bathroom scene during the episode âCrateâ on Veep should be enough in an of itself for Tony Hale to win this year, and thatâs before you factor in his win from last year. Iâm a massive Adam Driver fan but his work on Girls much more dark and dramatic than comedic, so Iâm not sure he pulls enough votes to win. That said, his star is on the rise so itâs possible a larger block of Emmy voters has been exposed to his talent. But itâs Andre Braugher on Brooklyn Nine-Nine who was the biggest surprise of the year. His deadpan delivery absolutely slayed me time and time again, and I wish the show wouldâve gotten more Emmy attention overall.Â
Writing for a Comedy
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- Louie, âSo Did the Fat Ladyâ â Louis C.K.
- Orange Is the New Black, âI Wasnât Readyâ â Liz Friedman & Jenji Kohan
- Silicon Valley, âOptimal Tip-to-Tip Efficiencyâ â Alec Berg
- Veep, âSpecial Relationshipâ â Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, & Tony Roche
Allisonâs Picks
Should Win: âOptimal Tip-to-Tip Efficiencyâ
Will Win: âOptimal Tip-to-Tip Efficiencyâ
Dark Horse: âSo Did the Fat Ladyâ
Silicon Valley's first season finale, "Optimal Tip-to-Tip Efficiency," is surely the longest dick joke ever nominated for an Emmy (as well it should be).  But that was not the only great thing about Alec Berg's script, which played to the strengths of all of the show's lead actors, and was above all, riotously funny.  With the voting power of HBO behind him, Berg should easily secure a win.  There is a potential for an upset, though, for Louie's "So Did the Fat Lady," which was a good (though not the greatest) episode of an engrossing season.
Adamâs Picks
Should Win: âOptimal Tip-to-Tip Efficiencyâ
Will Win: âI Wasnât Readyâ
Dark Horse: âSo Did the Fat Ladyâ
For crafting the most elaborate (and possibly best) dick joke ever told, Iâd give this trophy to Silicon Valley in a heartbeat. Alas, Iâm not sure thatâs enough to convince the Television Academy. Though Veep had a tremendous season, âSpecial Relationshipâ was one of its weakest episodes, so Iâm predicting that on a big night for Orange Is the New Black, the pilot episode takes this one home. Keep an eye out for Louis C.K. to possibly pull off an upset, though.
Directing for a Comedy
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- Glee, â100â â Paris Barclay
- Louie, âElevator, Part 6â â Louis C.K.
- Modern Family, âLas Vegasâ â Gail Mancuso
- Orange Is the New Black, âLesbian Request Deniedâ â Jodie Foster
- Silicon Valley, âMinimum Viable Productâ â Mike Judge
Allisonâs Picks
Should Win: âElevator, Part 6â
Will Win: Accept no substitutes
In Louie's most surreal and beautifully filmed season yet, creator and star Louis C.K. himself really shone this year in directing.  His sensibilities, especially regarding his "Elevator" series, were quirky and filmic.  Louis C.K. probably won't win for acting, or writing (the submitted episode was not the season's strongest), so this seems like the category most likely for Emmy voters to feel hip and edgy by rewarding such an unusual talent.
Adamâs Picks
Should Win: âLesbian Request Deniedâ
Will Win: âLesbian Request Deniedâ
Dark Horse: âLas Vegasâ
Itâs unwise to count out Modern Family here because itâs won this award the past three times running, but the streak has to come to an end sometime. Louis C.K. did wonders to depict a hurricane in New York City on a shoestring budget in âElevator, Part 6â, but I think the topical nature of âLesbian Request Deniedâ, the popularity of Orange as a whole, and the starpower of Jodie Foster will carry that one to the win here. And deservedly so, as Foster handled the flashback of transgendered inmate Sophia with care and poignancy.
Miniseries
Allisonâs Picks
Should Win: Treme
Will Win: Fargo
Dark Horse: Itâs going to be Fargo
Fargo essentially has this in a lock.  In a just world, Treme's production from top to bottom would sweep everything, but Treme itself is about the world being really unjust.  So Fargo it will be.  (FX shows usually don't make a play at the Emmy because they don't have as much voting power, which is another reason why I think FX will do everything to promote Fargo and get some awards where they can and while they can -- even though many other series, like Louie, The Americans and Justified, might be more deserving elsewhere).
Adamâs PicksÂ
Should Win: Fargo
Will Win: Fargo
Dark Horse: Really?Â
Even thought I didnât really care for Fargo as much as almost everyone else, I can appreciate its value. Iâll admit the only other nominee Iâve seen here is American Horror Story: Coven, but the buzz on Fargo was almost universal, so I donât see how it loses this one.Â
TV Movie
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- Muhammad Aliâs Greatest Fight
- The Normal Heart
- Sherlock: âHis Last Vowâ
- The Trip to Bountiful
Allisonâs Picks
Should Win: The Trip to Bountiful
Will Win: The Normal Heart
Dark Horse: Sherlock: âHis Last Vowâ
Many nominees exploited the Emmy's weird rules about categories this year, like Sherlock coming in under TV Movie, True Detective being called a series, and Treme being dubbed a miniseries (it was one episode short of the minimum required for âseriesâ consideration).  In any case, Lifetime's The Trip to Bountiful is what TV movies were originally made for and about, and this particular telling -- changing up the formula of the original by featuring an all-black cast -- was a really great one.  But, it's most likely going to be HBO's Normal Heart which triumphs, because of HBO's Emmy power (and that TV movie's star power).  PBS could make a decent push for Sherlock, the other of its marquee shows, which could potentially lead to an upset.
Adamâs Picks
Should Win: Sherlock
Will Win: The Normal Heart
Dark Horse: Sherlock
Though itâs an original series, Sherlock qualifies as a TV movie due to its 90-minute episode format. âHis Last Vowâ was undoubtedly the best episode of the season, but I donât imagine anything will beat Ryan Murphyâs adaptation of the heartwrenching play The Normal Heart. Yes, Murphyâs direction nearly kills any subtlety that might have carried over from Larry Kramerâs screenplay, but this is a sensitive issue thatâs anchored by strong performances all around.