The 2012 Emmy Awards air Sunday at 8pm on ABC during all of your other programming (set those DV-Rs!), so is the show worth watching? Will there be any upsets? Or will it just be worth it to sit there smugly as Bryan Cranston wins again for Breaking Bad, turning to your friends, significant other or Siri and saying “I totally called that.” Hit the jump to see my predictions for who will win and whoshould win Sunday night based on Vegas odds, rumors, secret handshakes, the predictability of Emmy voters, with maybe an upset or two thrown in to keep things interesting.
Will Win: Modern Family
Should Win: Veep
Modern Family is a great show and it will win without question, but Veep was a hidden gem in the lineup this year. Not only was the acting superb but Armando Iannucci and his writing team are truly exceptional.
Outstanding Drama Series
Will Win: Mad Men
Should Win: Breaking Bad
Odds-makers are pretty split on these two series. My heart says Breaking Bad should win and deserves to blow the other (great entries) out of the water. My brain says that Emmy voters will pat themselves on the back for giving Mad Men a historic fifth win. Fantastically packed field in this category, though.
Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Should Win: Louis C.K.
I’m going against the grain here, since most predictions point towards Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory) to take this category for a third time. There are always upsets though, and I think this could be the category that does it. Louis C.K. has the double positive of being both edgy and deserving, and this should be his year.
Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Should Win: Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
The Emmy voters love Louis-Dreyfus, and even though Veep was mostly overlooked elsewhere, the voters may stick with what (and who) they know. Amy Poehler deserves a nod, but may not get it.
Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Will Win: Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Should Win: Bryan Cranston
Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Will Win: Claire Danes, Homeland
Should Win: Claire Danes
Just like with Bryan Cranston, there is not another named mentioned in this category other than Danes. She should win and will, and then we can all tune into Homeland next Sunday and watch her put in another bid to win next year.
Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Will Win: Someone from Modern Family
Should Win: Max Greenfield, New Girl
Max Greenfield has no shot, I just like to give him notice when I can. This category is going to be a toss-up among Eric Stonestreet, Ed O’Neill and Ty Burrell, but my money is on Burrell, who really carries the show.
Will Win: Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Should Win: Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Frankly, Kristen Wiig (Saturday Night Live) probably deserves it the most (if only for legacy reasons), but Modern Family can’t be stopped. Even though Bowen is likely the win, the biggest criticism of the show is formula and repetition, something most easily embodied by Bowen’s character Claire, who is shrill and uptight and plays one note with about three expressions. Vergara still keeps things fresh and is beloved, so she could (hopefully) pull an upset on her co-star.
Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Will Win: Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad
Should Win: All of them
This category breaks my heart, because I want Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad) to win All The Things. I want the same for Esposito as well as Slattery (Mad Men), too. And as much as I like him, I don’t think Peter Dinklage deserves to reclaim his spot with the trophy this year, even though he remains one of the most accessible parts of HBO’s dense series Game of Thrones (and the odds-makers like him for it). I’ll be glad for anyone who wins this and sad for all who don’t regardless of outcome. Strong field.
Will Win: Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Should Win: Christina Hendricks
I think Hendricks will run away with this without question. Maggie Smith may be Queen of the Quips on Downton Abbey, but no actress in this category exuded more complicated feelings and pathos on screen this year than Hendricks. Anna Gunn (Breaking Bad) will get overlooked again, unfortunately, but despite Gunn’s strengths, Hendricks still should take the prize.