If Black Friday’s estimates are any gauge, this year’s Thanksgiving weekend is going to be a bit of a downer.  Traditionally one of the biggest movie days of the year, 2011’s post-holiday Friday saw drops in both gross and attendance over a year ago.  To give you one example, this year’s 3D-animated Arthur Christmas performed about as well on its first Friday as last year’s 2D musical Burlesque. Up at the top, Breaking Dawn Part 1 continued to shine with an estimated $16.9 million.  That’s a decline of 75% from the film’s opening day, though the drop was expected given the front-heavy nature of The Twilight Saga series.  Last year’s big ‘Part 1’, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, managed to make about 20% more on its second Friday, putting 2011 at a bit of a disadvantage.  At number two with an estimated $12.2 million, The Muppets came in almost 35% behind 2010’s Tangled, though the latter did have 3D-pricing on its side.  The only film to buck the downward trend was Hugo.  Martin Scorsese’s 3D family-film earned $4.5 million on Friday - more than what it was projected to make just a few days ago.  More analysis tomorrow.