HBO’s Confederate probably won’t premiere for at least two years, but it’s already created a firestorm of controversy for the network and the showrunners.

To briefly recap, on July 19th, Game of Thrones showrunners D.B. Weiss and David Benioff revealed they were working with Nichelle Tramble Spellman (Justified), Malcolm Spellman (Empire), and Game of Thrones EPs Carolyn Strauss and Bernadette Caulfield on a new show for HBO called Confederate. The premise of the series is that it takes place in an alternate reality where the South won the Civil War of 1861, and a new Civil War is brewing. In this alternate reality, slavery is legal and has become a modern institution. “The story follows a broad swath of characters on both sides of the Mason-Dixon Demilitarized Zone – freedom fighters, slave hunters, politicians, abolitionists, journalists, the executives of a slave-holding conglomerate and the families of people in their thrall.”

Almost immediately there was an uproar, so Weiss, Benioff, and the Spellmans—all four of whom are the executive producers of the new series—had a longer, sit-down interview with Vulture trying to explain their goals for the series. Additionally, HBO President of Programming Casey Bloys weighed in at the Television Critics Association press tour last week, saying:

“File this under hindsight is 20-20, Our mistake — HBO’s mistake, not the producers — was the idea that we would be able to announce an idea that is so sensitive and requires such care and thought on the part of the producers in a press release was misguided on our part.

 

Richard [Plepler, CEO of HBO] and I had the benefit of sitting with these four producers. We heard why they wanted to do the show, what they were excited about. So we had that context. But I completely understand why somebody reading the press release wouldn’t have that.”

Unfortunately for HBO, they just seem to keep digging themselves deeper. Last night during Game of Thrones, the hashtag “#NoConfederate” started trending. Despite the explanations from HBO and the creators of the new show, the people who are currently tuned into this situation are not on board for Confederate.

Before we go any further, here are my personal thoughts on Confederate: it doesn’t seem like a great idea, but I’m withholding judgment on the show until I see it. Additionally, when you look at all the other great ideas for TV shows out there, and this is what HBO wants to pay money for, it seems deeply misguided to create an alternate history where slavery exists rather than just confronting the real issues with race we face today.

To be fair, it’s not like this concept can’t work. It will take a deft touch, and it could even be insightful. The 2004 mockumentary C.S.A.: The Confederate States of America posits a world where the South had won the war, and while the film isn’t half as clever as it thinks it is, it does provide a rebuke to everyone who flies a confederate flag and drones on about “states rights” and “heritage.” But because C.S.A. is a satire, it can get away with it. It’s also an 89-minute indie movie, so you can kind of take it or leave it as opposed to the investment HBO hopes to make with Confederate.

HBO’s rollout is already troubling because they have seriously underestimated why people in 2017 might be touchy about race. This isn’t a Man in the High Castle situation where the Nazis were defeated. Yes, there are still Nazis running around today, but Nazi Germany is no more. While one could argue that slavery is also over, to make a show where it still exists in America seems like an attempt to ignore all of the racial issues that still plague us today. It assumes that Confederate is on the same level as dark escapist entertainment like The Handmaid’s Tale while ignoring that our current incarceration practices have simply moved a large population of African-Americans from slavery to prison (for more on this, please watch Ava DuVernay’s documentary 13th).

It’s important to acknowledge that there’s a pop culture bubble, and HBO is probably hoping that while social media and pop culture critics are currently keeping a close watch on Confederate, the network can still market the show to the masses under the banner of “From the People Who Brought You Game of Thrones.” However, in the age of Peak TV where there’s so much competition, that may not be enough. Breaking Bad was averaging about 5 million viewers in its final season, but Better Call Saul, which not only has the same showrunner but also the benefit of existing in the same universe as Breaking Bad, only pulled in an average of 1.5 million viewers last season. Game of Thrones fans won’t automatically follow Weiss and Benioff to Confederate.

So you need a buy-in from influencers and critics, and while these people may try to keep an open mind when they finally see Confederate, that’s not ideally how you want people to approach your new show. It’s one thing for people to be skeptical of an adaptation because they loved the original so much, but they’re still excited to see it in a new medium. Confederate isn’t generating excitement; it’s generating controversy, and that controversy is going to dog it every time a new piece of information comes out until the show premieres.

And maybe Confederate turns everything around. Maybe this is just a botched announcement, and when people see what the showrunners are trying to do, they’ll realize that the show isn’t creating an alt-right fantasy world. But the problem is that the show’s announcement stumbled so badly out the gate that now Confederate has to constantly fight against a perception. Furthermore, they have no ammunition to fight that perception because the showrunners are still figuring out the show. Since Weiss and Benioff are going to be focused on Game of Thrones for over a year (the final season’s scripts are written, but a year or more of production and post-production looms), Confederate is now a void where people can put all of their fears and apprehensions of what the show could be.

When you look at how crowded the TV landscape is right now, most shows don’t want to be carrying baggage, and they certainly don’t want a segment of viewers who are already deeply skeptical of whatever the show could be. I assume HBO will move forward with Confederate no matter what since they want to stay in the Weiss/Benioff business, but they may want to start seriously engaging with detractors and addressing their specific concerns rather than chalking everything up to a PR snafu.