Here are some numbers for you to chew on: The Twilight Saga has so far accumulated over $2.3 billion in global box office and DVD revenue (with two more films to be released) and the eight-movie Harry Potter series has amassed over a whopping $7.7 billion in global box office revenue alone. Lionsgate Entertainment is banking on The Hunger Games four-film series potential to join that elite class and reverse the four-year downward trend that has seen a 45% drop in stock value. Regarding a franchise earnings prediction between $220 million and $733 million, analyst James Marsh had this to say:
“The Hunger Games could be the biggest catalyst for Lions Gate’s profits and share price during the next decade. It could be a game changer for them.”
The first installment of The Hunger Games comes in at a cost of $80 million (Lionsgate’s most expensive solo production ever) and stars Oscar-nominee Jennifer Lawrence as Katniss Everdeen, a teenage gladiator in a dystopian future. The Hunger Games opens on March 23, 2012 and with it rests the hopes of Lionsgate Entertainment. Hit the jump for much more.
An exhaustive report from Bloomberg chronicles the reaction of Lionsgate shareholders after the independent studio posted another quarter loss. Studio heads Jon Feltheimer and Michael Burns responded by pointing out that they had released one of its highest-grossing films (The Expendables) the year prior and spent much of 2010 fighting off a hostile takeover by billionaire Carl Icahn. With the sequel, The Expendables 2 currently filming, it’s obvious that Lionsgate is banking on franchise successes to pull them out of the hole.
As far as franchises go, the “Harry Potter” series of novels has sold over 450 million copies to date. Compare that to the approximate 115 million for the “Twilight” saga and roughly 16 million (in the US) for Suzanne Collins’ “The Hunger Games” trilogy. Now, of course, the movies will generate interest in the books; publisher Scholastic has announced new book title tie-ins with the release of the movie. But will it be enough?
Lionsgate has banked on tentpole projects and breakout stars before: Jason Momoa in Conan the Barbarian, pre-Bane Tom Hardy in Warrior, and Taylor Lautner in Abduction. Needless to say, those projects haven’t been the boom the studio had predicted. Because of their track record, analyst David Miller cautions optimistic buy-up of Lionsgate stock:
“Conan was an unmitigated disaster. If you follow this company closely, you’ll see it’s always the next movie that becomes the reason to buy the stock. If Hunger Games doesn’t work, the stock is going to take a big hit.”
Lionsgate head Feltheimer agrees:
“The Hunger Games must hit $100 million in domestic box office sales to justify making sequels. “I’m not too concerned we won’t get to that kind of number.”
The feature film adaptation of the second book in Suzanne Collins’ trilogy, Catching Fire, already has a release date of November 2013, but it’s clear that the fate of the franchise still rests with this first film. Regarding Lawrence’s co-stars Josh Hutcherson and Liam Hemsworth, Feltheimer is hoping they’ll be part of the draw. As he points to the two stars on a cover of Entertainment Weekly, he says “There’s just too much heat for this property around the world.”
While the studio heads seem to understand the growing popularity of the book franchise, a popular book does not always translate into a successful series of films. I need only point to Christopher Paolini’s Eragon as an example, although the author just released the final book in his “Inheritance” cycle. Others worth mentioning are The Golden Compass or The Seeker: The Dark is Rising. At least Alli Shearmur, Lionsgate’s president of movie production, seems to have the feel of the source material down:
“We weren’t going to let the violence be gratuitous or the selling point of the franchise,” says Shearmur, who oversaw the Bourne series starring Matt Damon while she was an executive at Universal Pictures Ltd. in 2002. “This is an emotional story about a young girl who sacrifices everything and sets off a revolution she never intended.”
While the book series features some pretty brutal deaths of some very young characters, to turn the property into a bloodbath would be missing the point. Perhaps there’s hope for them yet. Check out our continuing coverage on The Hunger Games here.
Peter Dinklage Won’t Be CGI in X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST: “It’s a Not Shy Character”
Megan Fox to Star in Michael Bay’s NINJA TURTLES as April O’Neil; Casting Underway for the Motion-Captured Turtles
New Red-Band Trailer for SPRING BREAKERS
Sony’s PlayStation 4 Coming This Holiday Season, Plus an Image of the New Controller
Mark Hamill Talks STAR WARS: EPISODE VII; Says “They’re Talking to Us” but “We Haven’t Signed Any Contracts”
Yeah… we wont have a sequeal…. I am sorry… but i am pessimist about this one..
They’re kidding themselves if they think this franchise has that kind of legs. Hollywood is DESPERATE for the next Harry Potter/Twilight, and we’ve seen many bigger and more popular franchises based on young adult books go down in flames.
The Hunger Games books are more a critical success than popular one, despite the massive online hype (which is almost always a death knell these days), and them attempting to lavish depth on a franchise that doesn’t have it won’t help. The books, btw, are poorly-written, young adult filler written by a so-so television writer and it shows. They lack any real characters, plot, or humanizing moments, unless you count the unnecessary blood and deaths (both of which won’t possibly be in the movies).
What’s next? A 100-million gamble on Artemis Fowl? Charlie Bone? Not everything is destined to be a blockbuster trilogy + 1 (split the last book into two movies for profits). The Hunger Games is one that isn’t.
RULE OF BOXOFFICE PROFITS-
Every movie has to make 21/2 times its production budget AND marketing costs to move into the black…
so if HG costs $80 million to produce and another $50 to market which will be necessary….the movie must make $325 million to be profitable = $100 Domestic / $200 Overseas / $20 DVD / TV etc.
the core fans of the book could make this possible but it seems kinda iffy
Due to Hollywood accounting, most films don’t actually show a profit or ever reach the “black”, so your comment is bs, mainly due to the fact that they throw every possible charge they can against the film so that it never reaches the black.
The HG looks like junk with a bunch of effing nobodies. Ok, Twilight has nobodies even with its success but at least the three main characters have charisma and looks generation W(worthless) can pleasure themselves to. But to think the HG will go one and be as big as HP or the Twilight saga is a joke.
They just said that it needs to make $100 million domestically. How is that putting it in the same league as HP or Twilight?
It doesn’t have “those kind of legs” and “we won’t have a sequel”? You guys aren’t serious, right? $100 million these days is nothing, especially for a popular book series (and trust me, they are plenty popular, though poorly written). Films that are considered commercial failures cross the $100 million domestic line (Watchmen, Green Lantern). Movies that crossed the $100 million domestic line this year: Hop, Just Go With It, Bad Teacher, Cowboys & Aliens. Trust me, The Hunger Games will hit $100 million.
yeah. but there are a lot of critics against the cast. Jennifer is not starving enough and looks too clean for Katniss. Katniss is skinny and starving, and she is messy.. Liam looks wrong and can’t act. Josh looks her little brother.
We do not know if the film will receive good reviews. If receive C- I don’t know if people will go out and watch the film.
i will wait for the trailers…. then I will see.
Green Lantern had horrible casting, an outcry over the costume design, fanboys bitching all over the place about it, and TERRIBLE reviews. Still crossed $100 million.
Yeah.. They did $116,601,172 in USA… So almost they didn’t. And is diferent, Hunger Games is not Twilight or Harry Potter. Is just another Young Adult novel… that is a sucess, but not that sucess. And GL has a fanbase, people sometimes don’t know GL, but go and watch a hero movie.
Hunger Games doesn’t have this fanbase…. and GL almost didn’t cross 100 Million. I don’t know.. we have to wait and watch the trailers…
Yeah, the Hunger Games will hit $100 million easy.
$100 Million..LMFAO..this crappy movie is going to BOMB at the box office..this makes me laugh!
I’m not here to make a prediction about how well The Hunger Games will perform because no one has seen enough from it to make that call. What I will do is defend the book. I read it and loved it. If you its not your thing that’s fine but stop making these wide sweeping generalizations based on nothing you’ve actually seen.
If they want it to be a big hit on box-office, then all they have to do is to write a solid screenplay. It is that simple.
Or give it to Jim Cameron. This man is a genius.
Has to be marketed properly to turn a buck,and that costs as much as production.
A good portion of the audience for this series is the same group of adults (not kids) who read all the Potter books and saw all of those films. I know how the Hunger Games spread among many of my friends that were into Potter (though not necessarily Twilight). I thought the first book was decent and that the series went downhill pretty quickly after that, but the reaction from other acquaintances was much more positive.
This series has generated enough interest among the right audience that I think the first film will easily break $100M. Unless word spreads rapidly that it’s “Dungeons & Dragons” awful, and even then it would have a fair shot.
Opening weekend over 150million domestic and 200 worldwide- looks like we will see this series to it completion!