Matt’s Picks for the 82nd Annual Academy Awards

by     Posted 3 years, 104 days ago

slice_academy_awards_statues_01.jpg

Sunday, March 7th will be the 82nd Academy Awards and it promises to be a fairly unspectacular one as far as horse-races go.  Three of the four acting categories are locked, the fourth is almost locked, and the only real competition is in the David vs. Goliath story of Kathryn Bigelow’s war action/drama The Hurt Locker vs. the spectacle of James Cameron’s Avatar.  Thankfully, that’s your Best Picture race and that’s where you’ll find the drama (not in the lame pre-constructed narrative that Bigelow and Cameron were briefly married over twenty years ago).

Hit the jump to check out my predictions and preferences for the winners in the categories of “Best Picture”, “Best Director”, “Best Actor”, “Best Actress”, “Best Supporting Actor”, and “Best Supporting Actress”.  I’ve also included a cheat-sheet at the end for all the other categories so if you don’t know who to put on your Oscar ballot at your party, put down my predictions and you’ll improve your odds.

push_based_on_the_novel_by_sapphire_movie_image__4_.jpgBest Supporting Actress

- Penelope Cruz, Nine

- Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air

- Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart

- Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air

- Mo’Nique, Precious

Should Win: Mo’Nique

Will Win: Mo’Nique

This year’s Supporting Actress nominees boiled down to Mo’Nique and everybody else.  There’s no other actress on this list who even comes close.  There’s not a spoiler in sight.  That’s good because she gave a phenomenal performance and no one expected it from an actress known only for comedy.  If and when she wins, she’ll be the third African-American in Oscar history to take home the award (the other two were Hattie McDaniel for Gond with the Wind and Jennifer Hudson for Dreamgirls). [Correction: Thanks to jrod for pointing out that Whoopi Goldberg also won the award for Ghost] If you’re wondering why I’m so confident in her win, it’s because she’s won the award from every organization that’s nominated her so far.

inglourious_basterds_movie_image_christoph_waltz_01.jpgBest Supporting Actor

- Matt Damon, Invictus

- Woody Harrelson, The Messenger

- Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

- Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones

- Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Should Win: Christoph Waltz

Will Win: Christoph Waltz

Like Supporting Actress, this award will go to and belongs to Christoph Waltz.  He won Best Actor at the Cannes Film Festival for his captivating performance as Col. Hans Landa aka “The Jew Hunter.”  His mixture of charm, intellect, and malice are just a few ingredients in a brilliant performance.  Like Mo’Nique, Waltz has won all the awards for which he’s been nominated.  They’re all deserved.

The Blind Side movie image Sandra Bullock1.jpgBest Actress

- Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

- Helen Mirren, The Last Station

- Carey Mulligan, An Education

- Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

- Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Should Win: Meryl Streep

Will Win: Sandra Bullock

For a solid stretch of the awards season, it looked like the battle for Best Actress would be between Meryl Streep for her charming performance as Julia Child in Julie & Julia and young actress Carey Mulligan for her breakout performance in An Education.  But now Mulligan has fallen by the wayside and in her place has come Sandra Bullock and her sleeper hit The Blind Side.  Bullock’s had a great year, she gave a fine performance, and I won’t mind if she wins.  However, I was more impressed with Streep’s performance where felt like she was giving a full performance rather than just doing an impression.

Crazy Heart movie image Jeff Bridges.jpgBest Actor

- Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

- George Clooney, Up in the Air

- Colin Firth, A Single Man

- Morgan Freeman, Invictus

- Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Should Win: Colin Firth

Will Win: Jeff Bridges

Like Bullock, I have nothing against Bridges winning this award, and that’s a good thing since he will.  My problem is that the role wasn’t very challenging and I don’t feel like it really pushed Bridges to a place we thought he couldn’t go (although I’ll admit those places are rare).  Firth really blew me away with his performance where he conveys deep, complicated emotions with almost no dialogue and expertly played a role that was like nothing he had done before in his career.

hurt_locker_set_photo_kathryn_bigelow_01.jpgBest Director

- James Cameron, Avatar

- Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

- Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

- Lee Daniels, Precious

- Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow

Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow

You can’t count out James Cameron and Avatar, but I think the Academy wants to be on the right side of history with this one and make Bigelow the first woman ever to win Best Director.  She also deserves the award because of those five she was the best director, but Academy voters don’t want to read the papers on Monday morning saying how sexist they were.  That way they can go back to business as usual and making sure Bigelow is the exception that proves the rule of women directors only getting to helm romantic comedies.  But if you think Cameron deserves it because of Avatar’s scope and technical complexity, allow me to counter that it’s harder to make a small movie with almost no money under harsh conditions with a limited amount of control over the elements than it is to use infinite money to create whatever you want.

avatar_movie_poster_final_01.jpgBest Picture

- Avatar

- The Blind Side

- District 9

- An Education

- The Hurt Locker

- Inglourious Basterds

- Precious

- A Serious Man

- Up

- Up in the Air

Should Win: Up

Will Win: Avatar

The Academy expanded the Best Picture field to ten nominees to allow for greater diversity among the films.  I think that’s great because I would love it if Up won Best Picture. But since there are still only five Best Director nominees, their movies are the real contenders and the other five are more like honorable mentions.  And of those five “real contenders” there are really only two (perhaps three) that have a shot at the top prize: The Hurt Locker and Avatar with Inglourious Basterds as the dark horse.  The Hurt Locker has a lot of critical momentum behind it, but critics don’t get to vote at the Oscars.  Avatar, on the other hand, has made ridiculous bank and now every studio wants their big budget action movies to get the 3D and IMAX 3D treatment.

The Hurt Locker deserves to win.  It’s one of the best war movies in a generation.  Avatar, on the other hand, is a very pretty tech demo that we won’t talk about five years from now (possibly less).  Keep in mind, Titanic was also a technical marvel when it came out in 1997, but we don’t talk about that movie any more beyond its (now shattered) box office gross.

Now the dark horse in this race is Quentin Tarantino’s Inglourious Basterds.  The film won the Screen Actors Guild award, actors comprise the largest block of Academy voters, and The Hurt Locker and Avatar could end up splitting the vote, especially with the new and convoluted preferential ballot voters are using.  Also, with ten nominees, our same rules of prediction may not apply.  Still, I always count on being disappointed so I put my money on Avatar even though I would be happy if almost any of the other nominees beat it.

CHEAT SHEET

If you’re having trouble filling out your Oscar ballot, here are the front runners in the remaining categories (except for the shorts; you’re on your own there):

The Hurt Locker movie poster.jpgBest Original Screenplay: The Hurt Locker

Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air

Best Editing: The Hurt Locker

Best Cinematography: The White Ribbon

Best Art Direction: Avatar

Best Sound Editing: The Hurt Locker

Best Sound Mixing: The Hurt Locker

Best Costume Design: The Young Victoria

Best Original Score: Up

Best Foreign Language Film: Un Prophete (A Prophet)

Best Documentary Feature: The Cove

Best Animated Feature: Up

Best Visual Effects: Avatar

Best Song: “The Weary Kind” – Crazy Heart

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Comments:
  • Corin Prendiville

    Carey Mulligan should win best actress, Sandra Bullock was alrgiht and Meryl Streep struck me as simply obnoxious and vapid in that role, shes played far superior roles much more deserving of Oscars than her performance in Julie & Julia. I know Mulligan won't win simply because shes a fresh actor and they don't like to hand them out to them unless that person dies.

    Kathryn must win best director, I swear if she loses to Cameron I'm going to be pissed. Hell, even Cameron will be pissed; he said so himself.

    Also the (500) Days of Summer snub is totally bs. The film is a huge achievement for an indie film and in my opinion the editing definitely makes it deserving of a nomination in that category (though I can't say whether I think it or Hurt Locker should win, the nomination should have been certain). The fact that it received zero nominations is totally bs.

    Also unhappy that Sweden couldn't change its rules and send in Let The Right One In for best foreign film, which it surely should have had a chance to win. Oh the disappointment. It seems like more action is going on off the list than on the list.

  • ShyamKapur

    These are very good picks. I also like how TipTop Search Engine has analyzed lots of tweets to help anyone pick winners at http://ftt.nu/oscars in quite a scientific manner.

  • junierizzle

    I think The Hurt Locker is really overrated. I liked it but I never thought it should even be in the discussion for best pic, director.
    The Best movie for me is INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS. That movie was all talk and it was just as suspensful as The Hurt LOcker and as entertaing as AVATAR.
    AVATAR also overrated. If it only made $300 million then it would not have been nominated for best pic.

  • JohnDoe

    LOL, who wrote this article? Avatar is a tech demo that no one will talk about in 5 years? Wow…yeah, because no one remembers the JAMES MOTHERFUCKIN' CAMERON films that change the way films are made (pioneered CGI, performance capture, and 3D), like The Terminator, Terminator 2, Aliens, The Abyss, or Titanic. Yeah, no one is talking about those films nowadays. Wow, sir…really? You either are very good at being sarcastic, or you're just not that fuckin' smart. Sorry to be frank, but it had to be brought to everyone's attention what a fool you are.

  • armand

    Really… to say that nobody will remember Avatar is complete and utter ********. I mean, if we take 97 what movies generally are remembered- Titanic, LA Confidential and Good Will Hunting… General public probably remembers only Titanic and maybe Good Will Hunting…
    If I went on the street with a list of 97 movies and asked if people here recognized these movies and which they recognized the most, Titanic would be nr. 1…

    The same goes for Avatar… Not only it will be remembered because it got like 2.6-2.8 billion worldwide gross but also when the sequels will follow as a start of the franchize… after all it will also be remebered as the first big 3d movie in modern times (then comes Alice and then the rest)…

  • mitch

    someone tell me why moniques performance was good. nowadays, good acting is screaming and crying. also, someone else tell me why sandra bullock's performance was good. wait, not just the performance, the ENTIRE FUCKING MOVIE! that movie did not have one ounce of creativity. terrible acting, and a script that im pretty sure a five year old wrote.

  • thebearpaw

    Tarantino and “Inglourious Basterds” deserve all the awards. Bigelow deserves nothing.

  • Jacob

    Let the Right One In was eligible for last year, but, like you said, Sweden submitted something much less interesting which didn't get nominated anyway.

  • jrod

    Hey…great article, but you might want to check your facts. Whoopi Goldberg has also won the supporting actress award, thus making Monique the fourth. Thought you might want to know, especially since Whoopi deserves the credit…

  • http://hackadvice.com/ Johnny

    Amazing post with beautiful insights such as, “She also deserves the award because of those five she was the best director…” Jesus, you sound like John Madden.

    I have no qualms with your picks, just your childish writing and thin explanations.

  • http://ciclotimia.blogspot.com [A]

    (500) Days of Summer is a huge achievement for an indie film? I pity the film….industry

  • junierizzle

    It made a crap load of money (The Blind Side)
    MONIQUE, I have a theory that the uglier an actress is the more likely she'll be nominated. I'm not saying Monique is ugly, but they made her look ugly. See also, Nicole KIdman and Charliz Theron.

  • junierizzle

    Exactly. Sadly I think the fact that they remembered is probably its only reward. I think QT has a shot at best screenplay though. Chrisoph Walts too of course.

  • junierizzle

    YEs it will be remembered for all the box office and FX. It will not be remembered as a great movie. As I stated in my post, if it DIDN”T make all that money, then it wouldn't have been nominated for best picture. I think that was the point of the article.
    Just like TITANIC, yes people remember it. But, as James Cameron has said himself, it's become a movie that people are ashamed to admit they have seen.

  • Johnny

    Did my comment get deleted?

    Like I said: childish.

  • Johnny

    Did my comment get deleted?

    Like I said: childish.

  • http://collider.com Matt Goldberg

    No one deleted your comment.

  • http://collider.com Matt Goldberg

    I wrote this article. My byline is right next to the headline.

    But honestly tell me: when was the last time you talked with someone about Titanic? When was the last time you thought to yourself, “You know what I feel like watching again? Titanic.”

    However, I would like to thank you on behalf of everyone who was unaware of what a fool I am. You have done the Internet a great service, guy who disagrees with me.

  • http://hackadvice.com/ Johnny

    Amazing post with beautiful insights such as, “She also deserves the award because of those five she was the best director…” Jesus, you sound like John Madden.

    I have no qualms with your picks, just your childish writing and thin explanations.

  • http://ciclotimia.blogspot.com/ [A]

    (500) Days of Summer is a huge achievement for an indie film? I pity the film….industry

  • junierizzle

    It made a crap load of money (The Blind Side)
    MONIQUE, I have a theory that the uglier an actress is the more likely she'll be nominated. I'm not saying Monique is ugly, but they made her look ugly. See also, Nicole KIdman and Charliz Theron.

  • junierizzle

    Exactly. Sadly I think the fact that they remembered is probably its only reward. I think QT has a shot at best screenplay though. Chrisoph Walts too of course.

  • junierizzle

    YEs it will be remembered for all the box office and FX. It will not be remembered as a great movie. As I stated in my post, if it DIDN”T make all that money, then it wouldn't have been nominated for best picture. I think that was the point of the article.
    Just like TITANIC, yes people remember it. But, as James Cameron has said himself, it's become a movie that people are ashamed to admit they have seen.

  • http://collider.com Matt Goldberg

    No one deleted your comment.

  • http://collider.com Matt Goldberg

    I wrote this article. My byline is right next to the headline.

    But honestly tell me: when was the last time you talked with someone about Titanic? When was the last time you thought to yourself, “You know what I feel like watching again? Titanic.”

    However, I would like to thank you on behalf of everyone who was unaware of what a fool I am. You have done the Internet a great service, guy who disagrees with me.

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