Cinemath Meets Oscar Beat: Who Would Win Every Best Picture Race If IMDb Voters Chose the Winner?

by     Posted 157 days ago

shakespeare in love saving private ryan

As part of his Oscar Beat coverage, Adam wrote about how well the Best Picture winners of the last 10 years hold up.  Today we want to go deeper, look at every Best Picture race to see if the right movie won.  That could be a daunting task, since we don’t naturally have a strong opinion on the battle between Cavalcade and I Am a Fugitive from a Chain Gang at the 6th Academy Awards.  Instead, Brendan turns to the power of numbers and the wisdom of crowds in the latest Cinemath, comparing the IMDb rating of every Best Picture winner since 1928 to the highest-rated nominee that year.

Additionally, Adam breaks down the Best Picture races by decade for historical context, noting the interesting discrepancies and surprises.  Check it out after the jump.

First, Brendan needs to clarify how treated IMDb rating ties were treated:

  • In the event of a tie with a Best Picture winner, the Best Picture winner is also the highest-rated nominee that year.
  • In the event of a tie without a Best Picture winner, the nominee with more votes is the highest-rated nominee that year.

The chart below plots the IMDb rating of every Best Picture winner and the highest-rated nominee that year from for all 85 Academy Awards.  The movies that both won Best Picture and earned the highest IMDb rating are in blue.  The Best Picture winners that do not have the highest IMDb rating are in red.  The highest-rated nominees that did not win Best Picture are green.  (Note: Javascript must be enabled to view these Google charts.  Hover over a data point to see the title and IMDb rating in parentheses.)

The highest rated nominee won Best Picture exactly 40% of the time (34 out of 85 races). If you’re forecasting, The Wolf of Wall Street is the highest-rated 2013 nominee at 8.5. 12 Years a Slave and Her trail close behind at 8.4 and 8.3, respectively.

When the highest-rated nominee and the Best Picture differ, the average difference in IMDb rating is 0.67.  There are 12 instances of a difference of at least 1 point:

Year

Diff

Best Picture Winner Highest Rated

1933

1.8

Cavalcade (6.2) I Am a Fugitive from a Chain Gang (8.0)

2002

1.6

Chicago (7.2) The Lord of the Rings: Two Towers (8.8)

1952

1.5

The Greatest Show on Earth (6.7) High Noon (8.2)

1998

1.4

Shakespeare in Love (7.2) Saving Private Ryan (8.6)

1929

1.3

The Broadway Melody (6.6) The Hollywood Revue of 1929 (7.9)

1981

1.3

Chariots of Fire (7.3) Raiders of the Lost Ark (8.6)

1936

1.3

The Great Ziegfeld (6.9) Dodsworth (8.2)

1958

1.2

Gigi (6.9) Cat on a Hot Tin Roof (8.1)

1931

1.1

Cimarron (6.1) East Lynne (7.2)

1956

1.1

Around the World in 80 Days (6.8) The Ten Commandments (7.9)

1944

1.1

Going My Way (7.4) Double Indemnity (8.5)

1963

1.0

Tom Jones (6.9) America, America (7.9)

 

Adam will take it from here to dive deeper into each race.

1928
Best Picture: Wings (7.9)
Highest Rated: Wings (7.9)

1929
east lynne posterBest Picture: The Broadway Melody (6.6)
Highest Rated: The Hollywood Revue of 1929 (7.9)

1930
Best Picture: All Quiet on the Western Front (8.1)
Highest Rated: All Quiet on the Western Front (8.1)

1931
Best Picture: Cimarron (6.1)
Highest Rated: East Lynne (7.2)

1932
Best Picture: Grand Hotel (7.7)
Highest Rated: The Smiling Lieutenant (8.0)

1933
Best Picture: Cavalcade (6.2)
Highest Rated: I Am a Fugitive from a Chain Gang (8.0)

1934
Best Picture: It Happened One Night (8.3)
Highest Rated: It Happened One Night (8.3)

1935
Best Picture: Mutiny on the Bounty (7.9)
Highest Rated: Mutiny on the Bounty (7.9)

1936
Best Picture: The Great Ziegfeld (6.9)
Highest Rated: Dodsworth (8.2)

1937
Best Picture: The Life of Emile Zola (7.4)
Highest Rated: The Awful Truth (8.0)

1938
Best Picture: You Can’t Take It with You (8.1)
Highest Rated: Grand Illusion (8.2)

1939
Best Picture: Gone with the Wind (8.2)
Highest Rated: Mr. Smith Goes to Washington (8.4)

Many of these early Best Picture nominees are tough to track down and thus their IMDb ratings carry a bit more weight; in the home video store-less era, someone really has to work to see East Lynne.  The Academy was also a very different organization during this time period, as the majority of the voters were actually studio executives who had created the organization in order to primarily mediate labor disputes and work on the industry’s image.  With regards to IMDb ratings, it’s a tad surprising that Mr. Smith Goes to Washington edges out The Wizard of Oz in the 1939 race by a full two tenths, but that banner year includes a number of now-classic Best Picture nominees like Stagecoach and the Best Picture winner Gone with the Wind.  Perhaps we have “movie days” in countless middle school history classes to thank for the wide exposure to Mr. Smith.

1940
Best Picture: Rebecca (8.3)
Highest Rated: The Great Dictator (8.5)

1941
how green was my valley posterBest Picture: How Green Was My Valley (7.9)
Highest Rated: Citizen Kane (8.5)

1942
Best Picture: Mrs. Miniver (7.7)
Highest Rated: The Magnificent Ambersons (8.0)

1943
Best Picture: Casablanca (8.7)
Highest Rated: Casablanca (8.7)

1944
Best Picture: Going My Way (7.4)
Highest Rated: Double Indemnity (8.5)

1945
Best Picture: The Lost Weekend (8.1)
Highest Rated: The Lost Weekend (8.1)

1946
Best Picture: The Best Years of Our Lives (8.3)
Highest Rated: It’s a Wonderful Life (8.7)

1947
Best Picture: Gentleman’s Agreement (7.4)
Highest Rated: Great Expectations (8.0)

1948
Best Picture: Hamlet (7.9)
Highest Rated: The Treasure of the Sierra Madre (8.4)

1949
Best Picture: All the King’s Men (7.6)
Highest Rated: The Heiress (8.2)

The World War II era produced plenty of brilliant films that have stood the test of time, but “the greatest,” Citizen Kane, doesn’t even hold the highest IMDb rating of the decade.  That honor is a tie between It’s a Wonderful Life and Casablanca.  Of the three, only Casablanca won Best Picture, but the 1941 race is certainly interesting.  The winner, John Ford’s drama How Green Was My Valley, isn’t discussed nearly as often as the films that it beat for the big trophy: Citizen Kane, the noir classic The Maltese Falcon, and Alfred Hitchcock’s Suspicion.

1950
Best Picture: All About Eve (8.4)
Highest Rated: Sunset Blvd. (8.6)

1951
the greatest show on earth posterBest Picture: An American in Paris (7.3)
Highest Rated: A Streetcar Named Desire (8.1)

1952
Best Picture: The Greatest Show on Earth (6.7)
Highest Rated: High Noon (8.2)

1953
Best Picture: From Here to Eternity (7.8)
Highest Rated: Roman Holiday (8.1)

1954
Best Picture: On the Waterfront (8.3)
Highest Rated: On the Waterfront (8.3)

1955
Best Picture: Marty (7.8)
Highest Rated: Mister Roberts (7.9)

1956
Best Picture: Around the World in Eighty Days (6.8)
Highest Rated: The Ten Commandments (7.9)

1957
Best Picture: The Bridge on the River Kwai (8.3)
Highest Rated: 12 Angry Men (8.9)

1958
Best Picture: Gigi (6.9)
Highest Rated: Cat on a Hot Tin Roof (8.1)

1959
Best Picture: Ben-Hur (8.2)
Highest Rated: Ben-Hur (8.2)

The 50s are a curious decade in that some of the time period’s best and long-lasting films were not even nominated for Best Picture.  Pictures like Seven Samurai, The Searchers, Rear Window, and North by Northwest are now considered classics, but at the time they failed to land on the Academy’s radar for the top trophy.  Nevertheless, there are still some notable films to be found like Ben-Hur, The Ten Commandments, and one of the highest rated films on this entire list: 12 Angry Men (though Ben-Hur is the only winner of the three).  Additionally, 1952 provides a massive discrepancy between the Best Picture winner and the highest rated nominee, as High Noon is a full 1.5 higher than that year’s champion, The Greatest Show on Earth.

1960
Best Picture: The Apartment (8.4)
Highest Rated: The Apartment (8.4)

1961
in the heat of the night posterBest Picture: West Side Story (7.7)
Highest Rated: Judgment at Nuremberg (8.3)

1962
Best Picture: Lawrence of Arabia (8.4)
Highest Rated: Lawrence of Arabia (8.4)

1963
Best Picture: Tom Jones (6.9)
Highest Rated: America, America (7.9)

1964
Best Picture: My Fair Lady (7.9)
Highest Rated: Dr. Strangelove (8.6)

1965
Best Picture: The Sound of Music (8.0)
Highest Rated: The Sound of Music (8.0)

1966
Best Picture: A Man for All Seasons (8.0)
Highest Rated: Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? (8.2)

1967
Best Picture: In the Heat of the Night (8.0)
Highest Rated: The Graduate (8.1)

1968
Best Picture: Oliver! (7.5)
Highest Rated: The Lion in Winter (8.2)

1969
Best Picture: Midnight Cowboy (8.0)
Highest Rated: Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid (8.2)

This decade is definitely not lacking for quality Best Picture nominees, and the IMDb community agrees with the Oscar winners on three occasions during the 1960s: The Apartment, Lawrence of Arabia, and The Sound of Music.  Some of the other gaps are quite close, as only one tenth of a point separates Best Picture winner In the Heat of the Night from top IMDb nominee The Graduate in 1967.  Indeed, many see this year as one of the most impactful and groundbreaking in the history of cinema, as evidenced by the incredibly varied Best Picture nominees.  It would mark a shift from the more traditional Hollywood fare of the previous decades to the decidedly boundary pushing films of the 1970s immediately following Midnight Cowboy’s win in 1969.

Click to Page 2 for the breakdown from 1970-2012




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