Boy, this one snuck up on me.  It’s already time for the Oscar nominations to be announced, which means it’s time to settle on some predictions.  This has been an odd year in many ways, especially with regards to Best Picture.  As I said in my recent Oscar Beat piece, battle lines aren’t clearly drawn between two or even three contenders.  There’s even cloudiness over whether one of the biggest contenders might get into the race at all due to late screener deliveries. But that’s all moot now.  In less than 24 hours, all will be revealed and we’ll enter the next phase of the awards campaign: the fight to the finish.After the jump, I offer my predictions for the nominees in a number of categories for this year’s Oscars.  Be sure to come back bright and early tomorrow morning (5:30am PT, to be exact) to see the official list of nominees along with my commentary on how things shake out.  The awards ceremony will be held on February 22nd.*Contenders are listed in order of likelihood to be nominated (or, more accurately, how confident I feel in the pick’s chances).

Best Picture

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Image via IFC Films

Boyhood

Birdman

The Imitation Game

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Theory of Everything

American Sniper

Selma

Whiplash

Nightcrawler

Waiting in the Wings: Gone Girl, Foxcatcher, Unbroken

I’ve already said quite a bit about the Best Picture race over the past few months so I won’t get into much detail here, but the big question is whether Selma gets in.  I have a strong feeling it does, even though it only picked up two guild notices.  Paramount had a limited amount of time to create screeners for the film, so they decided to focus on Academy members rather than members of the various guilds.  I believe this accounts for the film’s non-existence in the PGA, DGA, SAG, etc. nominees, and points to a larger issue: these voters are way too dependent upon screeners.  If I’m right, Selma could have a surprisingly strong showing when all the nominees are unveiled.

And then we have the final few slots.  American Sniper is somehow being willed into being an awards contender—which is ironic given that Sniper and Selma premiered at AFI Fest on the same night and the response to the former was very muted in comparison to the latter.  No matter, it appears to be on track to land a nod. Gone Girl could definitely still make the cut, but given that the DGA recognized Fincher for The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo and didn't for Gone Girl, I opted to go with Nightcrawler as this year’s “dark drama” candidate.

Best Director 

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Image via Fox Searchlight

Richard Linklater – Boyhood

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – Birdman

Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel

Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game

Damien Chazelle - Whiplash 

Waiting in the Wings: Ava DuVernay (Selma), Clint Eastwood (American Sniper), Dan Gilroy (Nightcrawler)

The top two candidates have been set in stone for months (though that can be dangerous in light of recent major snubs like Ben Affleck or Kathryn Bigelow—don’t completely rule out a shocking omission), and the building momentum for The Grand Budapest Hotel culminated in a DGA nod for Wes Anderson, which I think results in his first ever Oscar nomination for directing.  The question now is, “Do I have enough faith in the director’s branch to nominate a woman?”  I’m honestly torn, but my pessimistic side is winning out and I’m going with Ava DuVernay missing the cut for Selma.  If I’m wrong, I’ll be absolutely delighted.

I’ve learned never to doubt Harvey Weinstein’s muscle when it comes to the Oscars (remember The Reader?) so I think his heavy campaigning will result in a nomination for The Imitation Game’s Morten Tyldum, who did a fine yet unremarkable job with the film.  Academy love could push Clint Eastwood in here, but the DGA nominees rarely match up 5-for-5 (and have resulted in increasingly kooky disparities as of late) so I’m going with Whiplash’s Damien Chazelle for this year’s Benh Zeitlin slot.  But keep an eye out for Nightcrawler’s Dan Gilroy, whose film has been surging a bit as of late.

Best Actor 

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Image via Focus Features

Michael Keaton – Birdman

Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything

David Oyelowo – Selma

Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game

Jake Gyllenhaal – Nightcrawler

Waiting in the Wings: Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

Michael Keaton, Eddie Redmayne, and Benedict Cumberbatch have fairly solidified their dominance in this category, so I’m thinking Nightcrawler’s rise will culminate in Jake Gyllenhaal taking the sociopath slot, leaving Steve Carell’s fine work in Foxcatcher in the cold.  Carell was an early favorite to land a nod here, but Foxcatcher failed to catch on with critics groups and has only done marginally better with the guilds, so I think it’s possible he misses out.  And though Selma’s fate is still in a bit of doubt, the Academy can’t help itself when it comes to biopics, and David Oyelowo’s complex, raw portrayal of Martin Luther King Jr. should carry him to a nomination.  If the Academy falls hard for American Sniper though, they could once again recognize new-favorite Bradley Cooper for what’s admittedly an excellent performance.

Best Actress 

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Julianne Moore – Still Alice

Reese Witherspoon – Wild

Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything

Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl

Jennifer Aniston – Cake

Waiting in the Wings: Amy Adams (Big Eyes), Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night), Hilary Swank (The Homesman)

You can thank a thin field for the fact that the top four slots in this category have been sewn up since November.  And you can thank heavy campaigning for the fact that Jennifer Aniston will likely be taking the fifth slot for her performance in Cake.  It’s possible that Amy Adams (Big Eyes) or Hilary Swank (The Homesman) could swoop in and surprise, but all signs point to Aniston getting the nod.

Continue Reading Adam’s Oscar Nominations Predictions on Page 2

Best Supporting Actor 

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J.K. Simmons – Whiplash

Edward Norton – Birdman

Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher

Ethan Hawke – Boyhood

Robert Duvall – The Judge

Waiting in the Wings: Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice), Tom Wilkinson (Selma), Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)

Another category that’s been pretty solidified for a while, with a fifth slot up for grabs.  Even though Sony Pictures Classics submitted Carell for consideration in the Best Actor category, it’s possible that Academy members feel differently and recognize him here.  However, strong campaigning by Robert Downey Jr. looks likely to land veteran (and beloved) actor Robert Duvall a nomination for the underwhelming The Judge.  His slot is the most vulnerable, so if Tom Wilkinson is able to overcome the smear campaigns about Selma’s portrayal of LBJ or if they decide Inherent Vice isn’t too weird after all, he could miss the cut.  But I’m not counting on it.

Best Supporting Actress

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Image via 20th Century Fox

Patricia Arquette – Boyhood

Meryl Streep – Into the Woods

Emma Stone – Birdman

Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game

Rene Russo – Nightcrawler

Waiting in the Wings: Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year), Tilda Swinton (Snowpiercer), Laura Dern (Wild)

See above.  Consensus surrounded the top four nominees in this category weeks ago, and now we’re talking about the fifth and final slot (though someone like Emma Stone or Keira Knightley could be vulnerable to a surprise omission).  Most seem to think it’s going to Jessica Chastain for A Most Violent Year, a film that didn’t really hit with critics or guilds.  Chastain has been a visible presence in the awards campaign season and that could certainly result in a nomination, but I think the love for Nightcrawler will extend here to a very deserving nod for Rene Russo’s best work in years.

Best Adapted Screenplay 

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Gillian Flynn – Gone Girl

Graham Moore – The Imitation Game

Damien Chazelle – Whiplash

Anthony McCarten – The Theory of Everything

Jason Hall – American Sniper

Waiting in the Wings: Wild, Inherent Vice, Unbroken

This has been a surprisingly light year for quality adapted screenplays, but Gone Girl and the two British genius biopics would appear to be pretty safe bets.  Category confusion could result in Whiplash being left out (it was campaigned as original but the Academy deemed it an adaptation, even though the short film was actually adapted from Chazelle’s feature script in order to secure financing), but my gut says it’s safe.  Wild is a serious (and very deserving) threat, but again, voters appear to be fans of American Sniper so I think it gets in here.

Best Original Screenplay 

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Image via Roadside Attractions

Boyhood – Richard Linklater

Birdman – Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo

The Grand Budapest Hotel – Wes Anderson, Hugo Guinness

Nightcrawler – Dan Gilroy

Foxcatcher – E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman

Waiting in the Wings: Selma, The LEGO Movie, Mr. Turner

In relation to Best Adapted, the Best Original Screenplay contenders are overflowing with both quality and quantity.  The top three feel like very safe bets, and again I think the Nightcrawler love extends here.  This also feels like a good place to recognize Foxcatcher for voters not putting it on their Best Picture ballots, but I’m also not counting out a surprise nomination for the wholly original The LEGO Movie.  There’s a bit of controversy surrounding the screenplay for Selma (Ava DuVernay was denied credit for her significant rewrite work) so that may prevent voters from singling it out here.