For Your Consideration: Episode 21 – Oscar Nominations Analysis

     January 22, 2019

On this week’s For Your Consideration, Collider’s awards experts Scott MantzPerri Nemiroff and Jeff Sneider break down the Oscar nominations as well as all the snubs and surprises therein. The gang keeps the focus on Best Picture, Best Director and the four acting races, so if you want analysis of below-the-line categories, you’ll have to tune in again next week.

Okay, first thing’s first — do we have a new frontrunner for Best Picture? Netflix, the streaming service, picked up 10 nominations for Alfonso Cuarón‘s Roma, which is as well-liked and admired as any film in this race. Roma failed to earn an all-important nomination for editing, which is one of the most accurate predictors of Best Picture, but it did score a surprise nomination for supporting actress Marina de Tavira, who didn’t win a single precursor honor in the lead-up to today’s announcement. For all the talk about Netflix stigma and the idea that voters would hold Roma‘s distribution platform against it, it certainly doesn’t seem to be the case anymore.

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Image via Netflix

Scott and Perri are confident that Roma is now the movie to beat in the Best Picture race since the Academy snubbed the two directors of Green Book and A Star Is Born, which are perceived to be the biggest threats to Roma. Ever the contrarian, Jeff feels strongly that Roma will not win Best Picture, and that those other two films are still strong contenders despite evidence suggesting otherwise. He also warns his co-hosts not to dismiss Black Panther, which isn’t out of the race yet even though it missed out on writing and directing nominations.

Roma‘s Yalitza Aparicio snagged a Best Actress nomination, and while it wasn’t as big of a surprise as de Tavira’s nomination, it’s still a huge deal considering she had never acted before. Most people believe Aparicio snuck into the fifth and final slot, but Jeff thinks she stands a better chance to win than Melissa McCarthy, who hasn’t been as ubiquitous on the campaign trail this year. Scott is still standing firmly in Glenn Close‘s corner, but Jeff has the sneaking suspicion that Olivia Colman has the edge, given how many nominations the Academy showered upon The Favourite. Lady Gaga could still throw a wrench in the race, but voters may feel the “Shallow” singer is a shoo-in to win a statue for Best Song. When Jeff starts to suggest a Kendrick Lamar upset, Perri shuts him down right quick.

Best Actor feels like the most up-for-grabs Oscar, as the three FYC hosts can’t seem to agree on a frontrunner. Perri thinks that voters may feel bad for Bradley Cooper, who was snubbed in the Best Director category, and throw him a sympathy vote for Best Actor. That’s sound logic to Jeff, but even so, he still thinks that Christian Bale has the edge. Even though he’s playing Dick Cheney in Vice, Bale has never won a lead actor Oscar, and his physical transformation will be tough to contend with. Scott, however, is riding the Rami Malek train all the way to the Dolby podium. We’ll see if Cooper can upset either of this month’s Golden Globe winners.

The FYC hosts agree that Cuarón is the clear frontrunner for Best Director, especially with Cooper relegated to the sidelines in that category, and they’re also betting on Mahershala Ali and Regina King to take home supporting acting honors for Green Book and If Beale Street Could Talk, which missed out on a Best Picture nomination on Tuesday, much to the dismay of its distributor, Annapurna Pictures.

To keep up with all things For Your Consideration, follow the gang on Twitter and Instagram at @MovieMantz, @PNemiroff and @TheInSneider. Hit up the comments section and let us know what you thought of today’s Oscar nominations and whether Scott or Jeff will win the Best Picture bet involving Roma. Stay tuned next week for analysis of the below-the-line categories, including Spider-Man‘s chances in the animated race, and we’ll FYC-ya later!

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Image via Fox Searchlight

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Image via Annapurna Pictures

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