At long last here we are: Oscar nominations predictions time. This has been one of the noisiest awards seasons I’ve ever covered, as A Star Is Born made a big splash last fall, only for the next few months to be dominated by think piece after think piece after think piece. Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody have stirred up enough controversies to last a few awards seasons (some warranted, some not) and Roma filmmaker Alfonso Cuarón continues to be plagued with questions about Netflix and theatrical distribution. To put it into perspective: Vice, the film that paints a monstrous portrait of former Vice President Dick Cheney, is one of the least controversial films in this year’s awards race.
Will any of this matter come Oscar nominations time? Will voters’ minds be swayed by the ethical implications of twisting true stories in Green Book or Bohemian Rhapsody? We’ll find out on Tuesday when the nominations are officially announced, but for now I did my best to put my head down, drown out the noise, and focus on which films, performers, and craftspeople will be nominated.
So below are my Oscar nominations predictions in most of the categories, along with my justification in each category. Come back next week for my take on the actual nominees, which will be announced early on Tuesday, January 22nd.
Of note: The predicted nominees in each category are listed in order of likelihood to be nominated.
Best Picture
A Star Is Born
Roma
Green Book
BlacKkKlansman
The Favourite
Black Panther
Vice
Bohemian Rhapsody
Alternates: If Beale Street Could Talk, First Man
I’m predicting eight nominees for Best Picture this year, but there could technically be anywhere between five and 10 nominees. A Star Is Born is the only film this year to pick up nominations from almost every single guild beforehand, missing only a nomination from the Visual Effects Society. Roma, Green Book, BlacKkKlansman, and The Favourite have also been mainstays on the guild circuit and have critical acclaim to boost them in, so I feel fairly confident about those.
Black Panther has been pegged as a shoo-in nominee for months now, which kind of makes me nervous. We all remember how this went down in 2008, when The Dark Knight was a mainstay with the guilds and a surefire Best Picture nominee only for the Academy to go for The Reader instead. So I’m hesitant to call this a surething, but I'm fairly confident Black Panther gets in. If it doesn’t, this will be the biggest snub since, appropriately enough, The Dark Knight.
Then we have Vice, which divided critics but has fared quite well with the guilds, picking up a Directors Guild Nomination for Adam McKay (notably the DGA left Black Panther’s Ryan Coogler off its list). I think it gets in, but also wouldn’t be entirely surprised if it doesn’t have the passion needed to score a Best Picture nomination. We’ll see.
And finally, in terms of what I’m predicting to be nominated, there’s Bohemian Rhapsody. With a 62% on Rotten Tomatoes, it will be the worst-reviewed Best Picture nominee since 2011’s Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. But unlike that film, Bohemian Rhapsody is a box office phenomenon, having grossed an astounding $774 million worldwide (and counting). People undeniably love this film, despite drama surrounding its false depiction of Freddie Mercury’s life and its credited director Bryan Singer being fired off the film in the midst of production. None of that seems to have matter to audiences and plenty of folks in the industry, as Bohemian Rhapsody picked up nominations from key guilds including the PGA and SAG. All signs point to it getting in, so here we are.
As for what’s just on the cusp, Barry Jenkins’ Moonlight follow-up If Beale Street Could Talk has been a regular on the critics circuit, but for whatever reason it’s lacking in key guild support that usually signals a Best Picture nomination. This doesn’t mean it won’t get in, but the film’s prospects are down a bit after being snubbed by not only the Screen Actors Guild, but also the Producers Guild and Directors Guild.
Somewhat ironically, Damien Chazelle’s new film is also a bubble candidate. First Man was initially pegged as a major player this awards season, but positive yet unenthusiastic reviews and truly disappointing box office did a number on it. I think there’s a very strong likelihood the film will pick up a lot of Oscar nominations on Tuesday and none of them will be Best Picture, but perhaps there’s been a surge of passion that will vault it into the nominations circle.
These 10 are the major players and most likely candidates, though there’s always the possibility that a spoiler like Crazy Rich Asians, Mary Poppins Returns, or even A Quiet Place sneaks in. The Academy’s 8,000+ voting body has become exponentially younger and more diverse over the last couple of years, which makes predicting the nominees (and especially winners) more difficult. But I’m not complaining. I’d love to see a big surprise shake things up.
For now, though, based on my prior experience and knowledge of the landscape at the moment, this is how I see it playing out.
Best Director
Alfonso Cuarón – Roma
Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
Peter Farrelly – Green Book
Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
Alternates: Adam McKay (Vice), Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War), Ryan Coogler (Black Panther), Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Best Director is one of the toughest categories to predict this year. I’m extremely confident that Alfonso Cuarón, Bradley Cooper, and Spike Lee will get in. The DGA nominated that trio, plus Peter Farrelly and Adam McKay. I’m less confident about the last two. Farrelly could take the biggest hit due to the controversies that continue to surround Green Book, although it’s also possible that the film's detractors have only emboldened its defenders.
As for McKay, he’s been nominated in this category before for The Big Short, and when the Academy’s Directors branch diverges from the DGA nominees, it usually does so in favor of a more “artsy” or left-field pick like Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread or Lenny Abrahamson for Room. So I think either Yorgos Lanthimos or Polish filmmaker Pawel Pawlikowski has a really strong shot at getting nominated. I’m kind of torn between the two, but went with Lanthimos given the popularity of The Favourite.
Best Actress
Glenn Close – The Wife
Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born
Olivia Colman – The Favourite
Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns
Alternates: Elsie Fischer (Eighth Grade), Toni Collette (Hereditary), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
The first four contenders here I feel extremely confident in—and beyond that, Glenn Close, Lady Gaga, and Olivia Colman are your frontrunners to win the trophy. That fifth slot is a bit of a question mark, but I’m following how SAG voted here and noting Emily Blunt for Mary Poppins Returns. Everyone loves Blunt, she’s been working the circuit pretty heavily, and even those who weren’t crazy about Mary Poppins sparked to her performance.
If it’s not Blunt, I could see Yalitza Aparicio getting in for Roma or maybe possibly Toni Collette for Hereditary, although the Academy’s bias against horror remains strong.
Best Actor
Christian Bale – Vice
Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman
Alternates: Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)
Similarly, I’m going with the SAG lineup here too, although I could easily see a scenario in which John David Washington misses the cut in favor of Willem Dafoe, who has reportedly benefited from a bit of a last-minute surge in passion for his portrayal of Vincent van Gough. And while Ethan Hawke has dominated the critics circuit for his towering performance in First Reformed, I’m afraid his SAG snubbing and the WGA turning a cold shoulder to the film's script may be a bad sign re: Oscars.
Best Supporting Actress
Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone – The Favourite
Rachel Weisz – The Favourite
Amy Adams – Vice
Claire Foy – First Man
Alternates: Linda Cardellini (Green Book), Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased), Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)
The Best Supporting Actress category is usually quite thin, owing to the dearth of complex female roles in Hollywood. But there are some great performances this year, and I feel pretty strongly about this lineup. Claire Foy is probably the most vulnerable, and as my colleague Matt Goldberg pointed out, support for Crazy Rich Asians could manifest here in a nomination for Michelle Yeoh.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali – Green Book
Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy
Alternates: Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther), Sam Rockwell (Vice), Brian Tyree Henry (If Beale Street Could Talk)
This category is now Mahershala Ali’s to lose, but Sam Elliott, Richard E. Grant, Adam Driver, and Timothee Chalamet have been mainstays throughout the season. It’s possible Chalamet gets dropped in favor of someone like Michael B. Jordan or Sam Rockwell, especially since it doesn’t look as though Chalamet has been doing much in the way of campaigning, but I’m afraid the stigma of Black Panther as a Marvel movie may keep Jordan out of the category here. Though I maintain the right to be pleasantly surprised if the acting branch wises up to the complexity of Jordan’s performance in that movie.
Best Original Screenplay
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice
Roma
Eighth Grade
Alternates: First Reformed, A Quiet Place
I feel pretty confident about the top four here. First Reformed has been pegged as a serious contender for months, but the Writers Guild snubbing gave me serious pause. I’m thinking Bo Burnham’s charming Eighth Grade may be making it in instead.
Best Adapted Screenplay
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
Alternates: First Man, Leave No Trace, Crazy Rich Asians
Adapted Screenplay is tough this year, but for the win it appears to be a race between BlacKkKlansman and If Beale Street Could Talk. I expect the love to shine on Can You Ever Forgive Me? and A Star Is Born here as well, although I also wouldn’t be shocked if there arose a surprise snub in the form of A Star Is Born. The WGA nomination for Black Panther gave me the confidence to put it in here, but keep an eye out for Crazy Rich Asians.
Best Film Editing
Roma
First Man
A Star Is Born
Vice
Bohemian Rhapsody
Alternates: The Favourite, Green Book, Mission: Impossible – Fallout
The nomination from the American Cinema Editors for Bohemian Rhapsody is my justification for putting that film here, even if it pains me to do so. Roma, First Man, and A Star Is Born are all fairly confident picks, and Vice stands a really strong shot at getting nominated as well—Hank Corwin was previously nominated for cutting McKay’s The Big Short. Recently the Editors branch of the Academy has gotten more ambitious with nominations for films like Baby Driver and Whiplash, so if there’s any justice they’ll rightly recognize Eddie Hamilton’s stellar work on Mission: Impossible – Fallout. Although a lack of an ACE Eddie nom for that film unfortunately has me doubtful.
Best Cinematography
Roma
The Favourite
A Star Is Born
First Man
Cold War
Alternates: If Beale Street Could Talk
This one’s pretty straightforward. I’m going with the American Society of Cinematographers Guild nominees, which coincide with the frontrunners in this category for some time—although James Laxton’s work in If Beale Street Could Talk is truly stunning.
Best Original Score
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Alternates: Mary Poppins Returns, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
Also pretty straightforward. Some are going with Mary Poppins Returns here, but I’m wary. That film’s Oscar buzz came and went incredibly swiftly. This branch has its favorite composers but has also recognized new and unique composers like Mica Levi and Johann Johannsson in recent years, which is why I think Black Panther has a strong shot at getting in. In truth, though, this is a race between First Man and If Beale Street Could Talk.
Best Original Song
A Star Is Born – “Shallow”
Mary Poppins Returns – “Trip a Little Light Fantastic”
Black Panther – “All the Stars”
Dumplin – “Girl in the Movies”
RBG – “I’ll Fight”
Alternate: “The Place Where Lost Things Go” – Mary Poppins Returns
I mean, “Shallow” has this in the bag right?
Best Production Design
Roma
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
Alternates: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Ready Player One
I’m tempted to put Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald in here over Black Panther since the first Fantastic Beasts film was nominated in this category and a superhero movie hasn’t been nominated since The Dark Knight. But Black Panther is a history-making film, so I’m going with my gut.
Best Costume Design
Mary Poppins Returns
The Favourite
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
Mary Queen of Scots
Alternates: Crazy Rich Asians
This branch usually favors period films and lavish costumes, so that covers four out of these five nominees. The other, Ruth E. Carter for Black Panther, is a two-time Oscar nominated legend in the field.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Vice
Stan & Ollie
Suspiria
Alternates: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, Mary Queen of Scots
This is a tough category to predict, because this branch can result in some really left-field choices. I think Vice is a shoo-in, and this branch seems to love fat suit transformations so Stan & Ollie feels solid as well. Suspiria failed to score a guild nomination, but the effects work in that film is impossible to ignore—Tilda Swinton’s transformation is in some ways even more involved and impressive than Christian Bale’s. So I’m going with Suspiria for the third slot, even though it could easily be Black Panther.
Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
Ready Player One
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Alternates: Black Panther, Welcome to Marwen
This category many times comes down to how the films performed at the VFX Bakeoff, where artists from the shortlisted films present clip reels to members of the branch. Apparently Solo: A Star Wars Story had a strong showing there, and Force Awakens, The Last Jedi, and Rogue One all scored nominations in this category before. So I think Solo keeps that streak alive, and Disney will be sitting pretty with nods for Avengers: Infinity War and Mary Poppins Returns. But Welcome to Marwen also apparently wowed at the bakeoff ceremony, so don’t be shocked if that one gets in too.
Best Sound Editing
A Star Is Born
First Man
A Quiet Place
Black Panther
Roma
Alternates: Mission: Impossible – Fallout
The difference between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing is, roughly, this: Sound Editing pertains to sounds created after the fact, not captured live on set. Sound Mixing is how all the sounds—both created and captured on set—are mixed together. So Editing is usually where big blockbusters get nominated, and while I still have my fingers crossed for Mission: Impossible – Fallout, the film’s snubbing from the Cinema Audio Society gives me pause.
Best Sound Mixing
A Star Is Born
Bohemian Rhapsody
A Quiet Place
First Man
Roma
Alternates: Black Panther
This category could very well match up 1:1 with Sound Editing, but I’ve swapped out Black Panther for the CAS-nominated Bohemian Rhapsody while keeping Roma, which was shockingly left off the CAS shortlist.
Best Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Incredibles 2
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
This one’s seemingly pretty straightforward, but we all remember how The LEGO Movie was a shoo-in for a nomination here a few years ago only for the film to be snubbed. Here’s hoping the Academy doesn’t make the same mistake twice.
Best Documentary Feature
Won’t You Be My Neighbor
Free Solo
RBG
Three Identical Strangers
Minding the Gap
It’s been a great year for docs, and these five truly are some of the cream of the crop.
Nominations for the 91st Academy Awards will be announced on Tuesday, January 22nd.