After running down predictions for the Oscars in a number of categories over the past two days, weâve now come to the big ones. As Iâve said many times before over the course of this awards season, this is quite possibly the closest Best Picture race in history; a coin flip would not be unwarranted. And while some of the acting categories are pretty sewn up, Supporting Actress remains a bit tricky and thereâs some intense competition in the race for Best Original Screenplay. Iâve had a lot of fun covering this yearâs awards race over the last five months with Oscar Beat and I look forward to doing it all over again this fall, but for now hereâs the culmination of this seasonâs coverage.After the jump youâll find my predictions for the final categories ahead of this weekendâs Academy Awards ceremony as well as my full predictions list for the ceremony, and if you missed Part 1 or Part 2 be sure to check them out. The 86th Academy Awards will air on Sunday, March 2nd on ABC, during which time our own Matt Goldberg will be live-blogging the ceremony right here on Collider.
Best Picture
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Itâs not every year that Best Picture is one of the most unpredictable categories at the Oscars, but here we are. This is a three-way race between Gravity, 12 Years a Slave, and American Hustle with Gravity and 12 Years our clear frontrunners. There are a number of different possible scenarios here. Some argue that Gravity and 12 Years will split the âimportantâ votes and the preferential ballot system will crown American Hustleâan inoffensive, charming, and relatively empty choiceâthe winner. Though it is a possibility, I personally donât think Hustle will have enough number one votes to pull it off. That leaves us with Gravity vs. 12 Years a Slave. In simple terms, the âImportantâ choice is 12 Years a Slave and the âachievementâ choice is Gravity. Both films have immense, passionate supporters and both films have their detractors, with Gravity being hailed as a technical masterpiece and 12 Years a Slave serving as the most striking and unflinching portrait of slavery ever put to film. Itâs hard to argue with either statement.
Many are predicting that the Academy will go with 12 Years a Slave for the win, but that almost feels too ârightâ for a voting body that has given Best Picture to The Kingâs Speech and The Artist in recent years over tougher films. Moreover, those that donât like 12 Years a Slave simply do not like it, while those who arenât head over heels for Gravity still recognize it as a technical marvel. Thereâs also the fact that many Academy members simply refused to see 12 Years a Slave, with it having been deemed âtoo hard to watchâ. This makes me think Gravity will fare better on the preferential ballot system than 12 Years a Slave, giving it the slightest edge to squeak out the win. The best case scenario, though, would be a first-ever for the category: a tie.
Will Win: Gravity
Dark Horse: 12 Years a Slave
Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Should Have Been Nominated: Inside Llewyn Davis
Best Director
David O. Russell â American Hustle
Alfonso Cuarón â Gravity
Alexander Payne â Nebraska
Steve McQueen â 12 Years a Slave
Martin Scorsese â The Wolf of Wall StreetÂ
While pundits are split on Best Picture, most agree that itâs Alfonso Cuarón who has the edge in the Best Director race. Steve McQueenâs work in 12 Years a Slave is incredibly precise and emotionally affecting, but the fact remains that Alfonso Cuarón had to actually invent the technology to make Gravity possible. His unrelenting vision made the pic a reality, and if someone else had directed it, Gravity would be an entirely different film. Itâs Cuarón's passion and talent that brought this visual marvel to the screen, so heâs a very safe bet to land his first-ever Oscar trophy for Best Director.
Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón â Gravity
Dark Horse: Steve McQueen â 12 Years a Slave
Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón â Gravity
Should Have Been Nominated: Spike Jonze â Her
Best Actor
Christian Bale â American Hustle
Bruce Dern â Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio â The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor â 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey â Dallas Buyers Club
This has been one of the most entertaining categories of the year. Matthew McConaughey certainly emerged a frontrunner when Dallas Buyers Club first debuted last fall, but he has fielded serious competition from a number of other fantastic performances in the ensuing monthsâsome of which just missed the cut for Oscar. His biggest threat is Chiwetel Ejiofor for turning in an immensely powerful performance in 12 Years a Slave, but thereâs also the possibility that Bruce Dern or Leonardo DiCaprio could pull off a (very big) upset. In the end, though, a Best Actor trophy for McConaughey just makes sense. Heâs had an incredible run as of late, not only with Dallas Buyers Club but also with impressive turns in Magic Mike, Mud, and The Wolf of Wall Street. Moreover, heâs been enjoying free campaigning by way of HBOâs True Detective. His phenomenal performance on the HBO show has been broadcast directly into votersâ homes for the past month, serving as a weekly reminder of the actorâs talent. I won't be surprised if he wins, but I will be surprised if the first three words out of his mouth arenât âalright, alright, alright.â
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey â Dallas Buyers Club
Dark Horse: Chiwetel Ejiofor â 12 Years a Slave
Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio â The Wolf of Wall Street
Should Have Been Nominated: Joaquin Phoenix â HerÂ
Best Actress
Amy Adams â American Hustle
Cate Blanchett â Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock â Gravity
Judi Dench â Philomena
Meryl Streep â August: Osage County
Hereâs one of two acting categories where we almost certainly wonât be seeing surprises on Oscar night. Cate Blanchett won this trophy all the way back in July when Blue Jasmine was released. This isnât just the best lead actress performance of 2013; this is the performance of the year period. Blanchett is positively transcendent in the definition of âtour-de-forceâ, and while the recent controversy surrounding Woody Allen might impact her win slightly, I doubt it will be enough to prevent her from taking home the trophy entirely. In the highly unlikely event that it does, though, keep an eye out for Amy Adams or Judi Dench.
Will Win: Cate Blanchett â Blue Jasmine
Dark Horse: Amy Adams â American Hustle
Should Win: Cate Blanchett â Blue Jasmine
Should Have Been Nominated: Adèle Exarchopoulos â Blue Is the Warmest Color
Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi â Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper â American Hustle
Michael Fassbender â 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill â The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto â Dallas Buyers Club
Whatever your feelings on the nominees, this oneâs already over. Jared Leto has won virtually every single Best Supporting Actor prize since December, making him a near-lock to take home the Oscar on Sunday for his refreshingly subdued performance as a transgendered AIDS patient in Dallas Buyers Club. Heâs been campaigning hard for the trophy as well unlike fellow nominee Michael Fassbender. After being snubbed for a Best Actor nomination for Shame, Fassbender opted to sit this awards season out despite his tremendous work in 12 Years a Slave. One has to wonder whether the race would have turned out differently had Fassbender campaigned, but alas this one is Letoâs to lose.
Will Win: Jared Leto â Dallas Buyers Club
Dark Horse: Michael Fassbender â 12 Years a Slave
Should Win: Michael Fassbender â 12 Years a Slave
Should Have Been Nominated: Will Forte â Nebraska
Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins â Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence â American Hustle
Lupita Nyongâo â 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts â August: Osage County
June Squibb â Nebraska
Ah, and weâre back to another tricky one. Newcomer Lupita Nyongâo is the frontrunner here for her absolutely heartbreaking work in 12 Years a Slave, but then thereâs Jennifer Lawrence. Nyongâo won the SAG award just as it was beginning to look like Lawrence had the momentum, but then the American Hustle actress recently enjoyed a surge as she took home the BAFTA. Nyongâo is really the emotional center of 12 Years a Slave and Lawrence isnât in American Hustle all that much, but she steals every scene sheâs in. Then there are the statistics to consider: of the 14 films that have received nominations in every acting category (like Hustle), only two of them failed to win a single acting award. Lawrence won Best Actress last year for Silver Linings Playbookâa film that also received nominations in every acting categoryâso can she pull off back-to-back wins for David O. Russell films? Sheâs incredibly likable and Hustle has much love within the Academy, but my guys says a film as emotionally devastating as 12 Years a Slave just wonât go home without an acting win, and Nyongâo is its best shot; she also happens to be quite deserving of the trophy. This oneâs closer than you think, but Iâm going with Nyongâo.
Will Win: Lupita Nyongâo â 12 Years a Slave
Dark Horse: Jennifer Lawrence â American Hustle
Should Win: Lupita Nyongâo â 12 Years a Slave
Should Have Been Nominated: Scarlett Johansson â HerÂ
Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Nebraska
This oneâs a close race as well. Woody Allen won a few years ago for Midnight in Paris, but Blue Jasmine is more of a performance piece and the recent controversy doesnât exactly help his chances, so Blue Jasmine is probably out. Same goes for Dallas Buyers Club, which was a bit of a surprise nominee here and lacks the flash or flourish of the other nominees. Nebraska could be a sleeper in this category, but it really looks to be a race between American Hustle and Her. The former has been the frontrunner for months with most assuming David O. Russell would take home his first Oscar win, but Her proved to be a somewhat surprising hit with voters by earning a Best Picture nomination, and it also took home the Writers Guild of America prize over Hustle. Given that American Hustle has 10 nominations and is very obviously an Academy favorite this year, it seems like the obvious choice, but a win for Her is a way to honor a film that doesnât have a shot in the bigger categories. It also happens to be a wonderfully original story told with a delicate touchâthe whole movie is a bit of a high-wire act, really, and itâs miraculous how Jonze pulls it off. In a bit of an upset, I think Her takes it.
Will Win: Her
Dark Horse: American Hustle
Should Win: Her
Should Have Been Nominated: The Worldâs End
Best Adapted Screenplay
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Hereâs the category in which 12 Years a Slave has the biggest lead. Due to guild rules, John Ridleyâs screenplay was ineligible for the WGA prize, but his screenplay is the definitive frontrunner in this category. Its primary competition, somewhat surprisingly, comes from Philomena. Producer Harvey Weinstein has no doubt been working behind the scenes to secure some kind of win for his only horse in this yearâs race. Nevertheless, this category is an easy way to honor 12 Years a Slave for those not deeming it the Best Picture, and enthusiasm for another one of the other Best Adapted Screenplay nominees has failed to coalesce.
Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Dark Horse: Philomena
Should Win: Before Midnight
Should Have Been Nominated: The Spectacular Now
And with that, Oscar Beatâs 2014 race coverage comes to a close. Itâs been a pleasure covering this awards season over the past few months, and Iâm eager to see how things turn out this Oscar Sunday.
Head over to Page 2 for my full list of Oscar predictions (which includes a last-minute switch in Costume Designâindecisive!) or read the full articles below.
- Adam Predicts the Oscars Part 1: Best Score, Original Song, Editing, Visual Effects, Animated Film, Foreign Language Film, and More
- Adam Predicts the Oscars Part 2: Best Cinematography, Costume Design, Production Design, Makeup, and Short Categories
Continue Reading for Adam's Full Oscar Predictions
Best Picture
Will Win: Gravity
Dark Horse: 12 Years a Slave
Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Should Have Been Nominated: Inside Llewyn Davis
Best Director
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron â Gravity
Dark Horse: Steve McQueen â 12 Years a Slave
Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron â Gravity
Should Have Been Nominated: Spike Jonze â Her
Best Actor
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey â Dallas Buyers Club
Dark Horse: Chiwetel Ejiofor â 12 Years a Slave
Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio â The Wolf of Wall Street
Should Have Been Nominated: Joaquin Phoenix â Her
Best Actress
Will Win: Cate Blanchett â Blue Jasmine
Dark Horse: Amy Adams â American Hustle
Should Win: Cate Blanchett â Blue Jasmine
Should Have Been Nominated: Adele Exarchopoulos â Blue Is the Warmest Color
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Jared Leto â Dallas Buyers Club
Dark Horse: Michael Fassbender â 12 Years a Slave
Should Win: Michael Fassbender â 12 Years a Slave
Should Have Been Nominated: Will Forte â Nebraska
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Lupita Nyongâo â 12 Years a Slave
Dark Horse: Jennifer Lawrence â American Hustle
Should Win: Lupita Nyongâo â 12 Years a Slave
Should Have Been Nominated: Scarlett Johansson â Her
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Her
Dark Horse: American Hustle
Should Win: Her
Should Have Been Nominated: The Worldâs End
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Dark Horse: Philomena
Should Win: Before Midnight
Should Have Been Nominated: The Spectacular Now
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Frozen
Dark Horse: The Wind Rises
Should Win: Frozen
Should Have Been Nominated: Monsters University
Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: 20 Feet from Stardom
Dark Horse: The Act of Killing
Should Win: The Act of Killing
Should Have Been Nominated: Stories We Tell
Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: The Great Beauty
Dark Horse: The Broken Circle Breakdown
Should Have Been Nominated: Blue Is the Warmest Color
Best Cinematography
Will Win: Gravity
Dark Horse: Nebraska
Should Win: Gravity
Should Have Been Nominated: Her and 12 Years a Slave
Best Production Design
Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Dark Horse: Gravity
Should Win: Her
Should Have Been Nominated: Inside Llewyn Davis
Best Costume Design
Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Dark Horse: American Hustle
Should Win: The Great Gatsby
Should Have Been Nominated: HerÂ
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Dark Horse: Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
Should Win: Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
Should Have Been Nominated: American Hustle
Best Film Editing
Will Win: Gravity
Dark Horse: Captain Phillips
Should Win: Captain Phillips
Should Have Been Nominated: The Wolf of Wall Street
Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Gravity
Dark Horse: Ha, please.
Should Win: Gravity
Should Have Been Nominated: Man of Steel
Best Sound Mixing
Will Win: Gravity
Dark Horse: Captain Phillips
Should Win: Gravity
Should Have Been Nominated: Stoker
Best Sound Editing
Will Win: Gravity
Dark Horse: All Is Lost
Should Win: Gravity
Should Have Been Nominated: Rush
Best Original Score
Will Win: Gravity
Dark Horse: Philomena
Should Win: Gravity
Should Have Been Nominated: RushÂ
Best Original Song
Will Win: âLet It Goâ â Frozen
Dark Horse: âOrdinary Loveâ â Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Should Win: âLet It Goâ â Frozen
Should Have Been Nominated: âSo You Know What Itâs Likeâ â Short Term 12
Best Animated Short Film
Will Win: Get a Horse!
Dark Horse: Mr. Hublot
Should Win: Mr. Hublot
Best Live Action Short Film
Will Win: The Voorman Problem
Dark Horse: Helium
Should Win: The Voorman Problem
Best Documentary Short Subject
Will Win: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Dark Horse: Facing Fear