Predicting 2016’s Oscar nominees has been one of the most difficult years since I started doing this. Plenty of categories are wide open, others are plagued by unpredictable voting branches, and late-season curveballs have thrown some of my earlier predictions out of whack. Indeed, if I had sat down to make these predictions just 10 days ago, I’d have been much more confident than I am now. But alas, the clock has run down, and it’s time to make some decisions.
Taking a closer look at the major categories, there are some seemingly sure things, while the acting categories offer some seriously exciting possibilities. So ahead of tomorrow’s official announcement—which will be read live at 5:30am PT by Guillermo del Toro, Ang Lee, and John Krasinski—I’ve taken a stab at predicting who the nominees will be in a number of categories.
*A note before we begin: each batch of predictions is listed in order of likelihood to be nominated.
Best Visual Effects
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Jurassic World
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Potential Dark Horses: The Walk, Avengers: Age of Ultron
While Marvel usually snags one nomination in this category per year, I have a feeling the box office marvels Star Wars and Jurassic World are going to outshine both of the superhero studio’s offerings. Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, and The Revenant, meanwhile, play into the branch’s proclivity for recognizing work by respected auteurs, and while The Revenant may not be an obvious choice, I think the bear scene clinches the nomination. If for some reason The Revenant doesn’t make the cut, however, look for tech-wizard Robert Zemeckis’ high-wire act The Walk to land in the field.
Best Film Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The Martian
The Big Short
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Possible Dark Horses: Sicario, Bridge of Spies
A very strong batch of candidates here, and if Sicario proves to be a surprise hit with the Academy don’t be shocked to see it show up, but this category belongs to Valhalla.
Best Original Score
The Hateful Eight – Ennio Morricone
Star Wars: The Force Awakens – John Williams
Bridge of Spies – Thomas Newman
Inside Out – Michael Giacchino
Carol – Carter Burwell
Potential Dark Horses: The Danish Girl – Alexandre Desplat, Spotlight – Howard Shore
A tricky one to be sure. Although Thomas Newman’s score for Bridge of Spies is spare and, frankly, unremarkable, he’s a heavy favorite with this branch and has a whopping 12 Oscar noms under his belt. That he was nominated for Saving Mr. Banks is further proof that he probably gets in. Howard Shore and Alexandre Desplat are also favorites with this voting branch, but again I’m going with my gut and saying Michael Giacchino and Carter Burwell get in. But if Desplat’s swell The Danish Girl score does indeed make the cut, watch out for a disheartening Carol snub.
Best Cinematography
The Revenant – Emmanuel Lubezki
Sicario – Roger Deakins
Carol – Edward Lachman
Mad Max: Fury Road – John Seale
The Hateful Eight – Robert Richardson
Potential Dark Horses: Bridge of Spies – Janusz Kaminski, The Martian – Dariusz Wolski
I feel pretty confident in these first four nominees, but the lack of love for The Hateful Eight overall and Robert Richardson’s work being left off the American Society of Cinematographers’ honors puts Tarantino’s love letter to 70mm in danger of being snubbed. If so, look for Academy stalwart and longtime Steven Spielberg collaborator Janusz Kaminski to score his seventh nomination.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short – Adam McKay, Charles Randolph
Steve Jobs – Aaron Sorkin
Carol – Phyllis Nagy
The Martian – Drew Goddard
Brooklyn – Nick Hornby
Potential Dark Horses: Room – Emma Donoghue, Anomalisa – Charlie Kaufman
Quite possibly one of the tightest races of the year, Best Adapted Screenplay is an embarrassment of riches. Aaron Sorkin seems primed to pick up another Oscar nod for the night, and the love for The Big Short will surely spread to its wonderfully crafted script. There’s some debate over whether the male-heavy voting body will rightfully recognize the female-led Carol, Brooklyn, and Room, and I’m thinking it’s the latter that may be left out in favor of Drew Goddard’s quip-heavy The Martian. But don’t count out Charlie Kaufman.
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight – Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer
Inside Out – Josh Cooley, Pete Docter, Meg LeFavue
The Hateful Eight – Quentin Tarantino
Ex Machina – Alex Garland
Bridge of Spies – Matt Charman, Ethan Coen, Joel Coen
Potential Dark Horses: Sicario – Taylor Sheridan, Straight Outta Compton – Andrea Berloff, Jonathan Herman, S. Leigh Savidge, Alan Wenkus
Another fascinating race, Best Original Screenplay is at no lack for solid contenders. The Hateful Eight doesn’t seem poised to have the same kind of success that Django Unchained did, but I can’t imagine the Academy would leave Quentin Tarantino out of the screenplay race. Same goes for the near-perfect Spotlight, for which Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer did their own investigative journalism to result in some of the film’s most insightful moments. Pete Docter previously landed a Best Original Screenplay nomination for his last Pixar film, Up, and while I think Inside Out will miss the Best Picture cut, a Best Original Screenplay nomination seems fitting.
Best Documentary Feature
Amy
The Look of Silence
Cartel Land
Listen to Me Marlon
Winter’s on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
Possible Dark Horses: He Named Me Malala, Where to Invade Next
Strong as ever, there were plenty of incredible docs to sift through in 2016. But the Academy’s Documentary branch is a finicky bunch, so don’t be surprised to see, well, surprises. Amy remains the frontrunner, though.
Best Animated Feature
Inside Out
Anomalisa
The Peanuts Movie
Shaun the Sheep Movie
Kahlil Gibran’s The Prophet
Possible Dark Horses: The Good Dinosaur, Minions
This one’s down to Inside Out versus Anomalisa, but the nominees should fill out accordingly.
Best Supporting Actor
Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone – Creed
Christian Bale – The Big Short
Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation
Potential Dark Horses: Benicio Del Toro – Sicario, Michael Keaton – Spotlight
Yes indeed, it looks as though Sylvester Stallone is going to pick up a Best Supporting Actor nomination for Creed. This category feels like it’s fairly set, with the Spotlight nomination being the biggest point of contention. The film is such a true ensemble that it becomes tough to pick which actor to nominate, and whether vote splitting might result in no one getting in. But I’m betting on the love of Mark Ruffalo and the fact that he has the “showiest” performance in the film to carry him to a nomination, although I wouldn’t be shocked to see Michael Keaton land the nomination instead.
Best Supporting Actress
Alicia Vikander – Ex Machina
Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara – Carol
Rachel McAdams — Spotlight
Potential Dark Horses: Helen Mirren – Trumbo, Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
For the past three months, prognosticators had this category earmarked for Alicia Vikander’s stunning turn in The Danish Girl. Funny thing is, while Vikander started picking up a slew of Best Supporting Actress trophies on the critics awards circuit, none of them were for The Danish Girl—they were all for Ex Machina. And so just like that, Vikander remains a frontrunner in this category but for an entirely different movie. Of course she could still secure a Best Supporting Actress nomination for The Danish Girl instead, throwing another curveball into an already fascinating category, but I’m going with my gut and saying she gets in for Ex Machina and The Danish Girl, albeit in different categories.
Elsewhere, Kate Winslet and Jennifer Jason Leigh seem like safe bets for nominations as well, but Mara’s fate is less certain and depends on whether Academy voters choose to recognize her in the Best Actress category instead—which is where her performance in Carol belongs, really. Rachel McAdams is a strong contender for Spotlight, and if the film is indeed still the Best Picture favorite it makes sense that it will also secure at least one acting nod, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if Helen Mirren shook things up with a nomination for Trumbo, thanks to the Academy’s older voting base which seems to be a big fan of the middling biopic.
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl
Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
Matt Damon – The Martian
Potential Dark Horses: Johnny Depp – Black Mass, Geza Rohrig – Son of Saul
Well Leonardo DiCaprio’s pretty much a lock here, and Michael Fassbender and Eddie Redmayne’s spots have also been pretty much solidified, although more likely as Bridesmaids to DiCaprio’s eventual win. Bryan Cranston will probably land a nomination for his solid work in Trumbo, but that fifth slot is somewhat up for grabs. Matt Damon was an early favorite for The Martian, and I’m thinking enthusiasm for the film and for Damon himself will push him through to his first Best Actor nomination since Good Will Hunting. But even though the film kind of disappeared, don’t discount Johnny Depp for Black Mass, who landed a Best Actor nod from the Screen Actors Guild. Looking for a spoiler? Don’t be shocked if Geza Rohrig scores a nod for the lauded Hungarian picture Son of Saul.
Best Actress
Brie Larson – Room
Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
Cate Blanchett – Carol
Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years
Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
Potential Dark Horses: Jennifer Lawrence – Joy, Rooney Mara – Carol
The Best Actress category is fierce this year, with a slew of incredible performances vying for one of the five Oscar slots. Brie Larson has picked up most of the precursor awards so she’s the safest bet of the entire Oscar nominations bunch, and likewise Saoirse Ronan and Cate Blanchett have been regulars of this category. The last two slots are less certain. Joy didn’t hit big with anyone really, but Jennifer Lawrence’s likeability and history with the Academy—and relationship with Oscar favorite David O. Russell—makes her a real possibility. And Charlotte Rampling has been a sort of critical darling of the season with her absolutely brilliant and heartbreaking turn in 45 Years. I’m going with my gut and saying Rampling gets a well-deserved nomination, but we could also be in for a Tilda Swinton in We Need to Talk About Kevin-level snub.
The real screwball comes in the category placement for Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander. Mara’s turn in Carol and Vikander’s in The Danish Girl are both being pushed for the Best Supporting Actress category by their respective studios, but it’s not uncommon for the Academy to eschew studio preference in favor of a more fitting placement, as with Kate Winslet being campaigned for Best Supporting Actress for The Reader, then going on to be nominated—and win!—for Best Actress. One of the most interesting categories of the bunch, I could easily see Mara and/or Vikander securing a Best Actress nod, and indeed I’m betting Vikander will go on to secure two nominations this year, with one of them being a Reader-type Best Actress nomination for The Danish Girl.
Best Director
Alejandro G. Iñárritu – The Revenant
Ridley Scott – The Martian
Adam McKay – The Big Short
Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
Todd Haynes – Carol
Potential Dark Horses: George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road, Steven Spielberg – Bridge of Spies
Man, what a tight race. The Directors Guild of America Awards nominations—which usually match up with the Oscar category with one, maybe two exceptions—clarified things a bit, so I’m pretty secure with Iñárritu, Scott, and McKay. Tom McCarthy seems like someone who is in danger of being undervalued, but the Academy’s Directors branch has a proclivity for singling out more nuanced and understaed direction over the larger DGA voting body, so I think he gets in.
The big question is George Miller. Warner Bros. was surprised to find themselves launching an Oscar campaign for Mad Max: Fury Road, and yet I believe the film is poised to land a number of nominations. However, while Miller earned a DGA nomination, history suggests one of those DGA nominees will miss the cut, and it’s usually someone at the helm of a bigger/more commercial picture. While I’d consider Fury Road an art film, unfortunately I have a feeling Miller might just miss the cut in favor of Todd Haynes, whose tremendously delicate work with Carol is absolutely essential to that film's voice.
If you look at past years, DGA nominees American Sniper, Captain Phillips, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Inception, and famously Argo were all passed over at the Oscars in favor of films like Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Foxcatcher, and Nebraska. Which is to say, I’m going with Haynes over Miller, with Steven Spielberg the possible spoiler should the male-skewing director’s branch find Carol too “cold”—which is very possible.
Best Picture
Spotlight
The Big Short
The Revenant
The Martian
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Straight Outta Compton
Potential Dark Horses: Trumbo, Inside Out, Room, Sicario
The Best Picture field has shifted more times in the last month than I can count, but I’m fairly confident this is how it will end up. Spotlight, The Big Short, and Straight Outta Compton all received nominations from the Producers Guild and Screen Actors Guild, with Spotlight and Big Short also scoring DGA noms, and while the Oscar nomination for Compton is the least likely of the three (if it doesn’t get in, look for the agreeable/mediocre Trumbo), it certainly has a serious shot. As for Room, the picture has been a genuine contender for months now, but I have a feeling the “oh it’s so hard to watch” factor may result in it just missing the cut due to voters putting off watching their screener.
As for the number of nominees, while it's possible for there to be anywhere between 5 and 10 nominees, it's statistically very hard for that number to reach 10. Last year it was 8, but there's a lot to love this year so I'm going with 9.