Every year it seems like Oscars' Best Actor category is crowded, while the number of contenders for the Best Actress trophy feels relatively thin. Itâs a result of the sad fact that there just arenât as many interesting lead roles for women in Hollywood as there are for men; many times the âfemale leadâ is relegated to existing only in relation to the filmâs male lead. Itâs disappointing to be sure, but it doesnât mean there arenât any noteworthy female roles out there, and this yearâs Best Actress race is an excellent showcase of both talent and range, from brilliant sociopaths to Alzheimerâs patients.After the jump, I take a look at the current state of the Best Actress Oscar category in this new edition of Oscar Beat.One of the biggest heavyweights in this yearâs race was actually a surprise latecomer. The drama Still Alice premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival in September as a rather under-the-radar picture, but buzz quickly grew for Julianne Mooreâs lead performance as a linguistics professor coming to terms with early on-set Alzheimerâs Disease. The buzz was so strong, in fact, that many were saying if a studio picked the film up for distribution and got it out in theaters before the end of the year, they would almost certainly secure an Oscar nomination for Mooreâif not the win. Thatâs exactly what Sony Pictures Classics has done, and word continues to be strong for Mooreâs lead performance, making her a very likely candidate for a Best Actress nomination.In the case of Reese Witherspoon and Wild, on paper the role seems like an obvious choice for Oscar attention. Based on the memoir by Cheryl Strayed, Witherspoon plays a woman who attempts the 1,100-mile hike from the Mojave Desert to the border of Washington State in order to work out some inner emotional turmoil. It all sounds very familiar and generic, but the film itself is anything but thanks to Witherspoonâs fearless lead performance and Jean-Marc Valleeâs dynamic direction. Iâm actually a little surprised the film hasnât made more of a splash already, but I imagine it will pick up more supporters as its December 5th release date looms closer. Regardless, Witherspoon has a strong and deserving shot at a Best Actress nod this year.While many have been raving about Eddie Redmayneâs performance in the Stephen Hawking biopic The Theory of Everything, an equal amount of praise is being heaped on his co-star Felicity Jones, who plays Hawkingâs first wife Jane. The film is actually as much Janeâs story as it is Stephenâs, and Jones more than rises to the occasion with a strong, heartbreaking performance that is sure to garner her Academy consideration. Itâs a subtle piece of work that is essential to the overall success of the film as Janeâs story is really the emotional center, and given that Theory of Everything tugs at the heartstrings quite successfully, I imagine Jonesâ performance will be a hit with Academy voters.Another performance thatâs certainly had people talking is Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl. The actress had a big challenge ahead of her as she essentially plays two roles in the film, but she does so in a manner that is wholly believableâAmazing Amy and Regular Amy are clearly cut from the same cloth, and the filmâs âturnâ is rendered at once surprising and inevitable thanks to Pikeâs commanding work. Itâs one of those go-for-broke performances that could have crumbled under a lesser actress, but Pike pulls off the high-wire act magnificently, crescendoing with some truly transcendent work in the filmâs third act (that hair flip, man). The picture was a box office success and comes from a highly esteemed director (the one and only David Fincher) so it has a leg up in the Oscar race, but even without those two factors I donât see how Pikeâs performance could be ignored. Itâll be curious to see how the filmâs momentum changesâif at allâas the season wears on, but regardless of how many nods it does or doesnât get overall, I think Pike has a very strong shot at a Best Actress nomination.And then this is where the category gets a less unsure given the overall thinness of the contenders this year. Jenny Slate is absolutely deserving of attention for her bold work in Obvious Child, in which she effortlessly balances humor with very difficult subject matter. But the trick is getting enough Academy voters to see the film, which has been crudely deemed âthe abortion comedy.â And Hilary Swank is a real possibility for her role in director Tommy Lee Jonesâ Western The Homesman, a film that feels like it could pick up some steam once voters start digging through their screener piles over the holidays.Shailene Woodley also has a shot at a Best Actress nod for her turn in the hit drama The Fault in Our Stars, especially given the young actressâ popularity at the moment. Sheâs undoubtedly solid in the film, though Iâm not so certain this is her âOscar-worthyâ performanceâit feels like Woodley may give us something even better down the road. Gugu Mbatha-Raw is a potential contender for her lead turn in the period drama Belle, and thereâs always the outside possibility that previous winner Marion Cotillard could gain some attention for either James Grayâs The Immigrant or the Dardennes Brothersâ Two Days, One Night. Speaking of foreign films, Iâd argue Lisa Loven Kongsli makes a strong case for Best Actress attention in the delightful Swedish film Force Majeure, but thatâs a bit of an uphill battle as far as securing a nomination is concerned.Other less-certain contenders include Jessica Chastain in The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby and Keira Knightley in Begin Again, but those two actresses have much better shots in the Best Supporting Actress category for A Most Violent Year and The Imitation Game, respectively.There are also a few unseen performances that are garnering early buzz, chiefly Amy Adams in Tim Burtonâs drama Big Eyes. The trailer looks like the film could be a return to form for the whimsical director, anchored by a strong lead performance from Adams as Margaret Keene, an artist whose husband took credit for her popular (and lucrative) oil paintings. Early word on Adamsâ turn is very positive, and the actress could nab her sixth Oscar nomination in just eight years.And then thereâs Emily Bluntâs lead turn in the Disney musical Into the Woods (co-star Meryl Streep is being submitted for Supporting Actress consideration). It remains to be seen if the film will be a massive success like director Rob Marshallâs excellent 2002 musical Chicago, more of a commercial play on Disneyâs part, or a big miss like Marshallâs star-studded 2009 musical Nine. If itâs the former, Blunt could stand to secure her first Academy Award nod, though Iâd also argue that sheâs deserving of attention for the delightful sci-fi pic Edge of Tomorrow. Of course thatâs a fruitless rally cry as the Academy rarely acknowledges anything too far outside its drama/dramedy genre sweet spot.As I said before, there are certainly some wildly impressive lead actress performances from this year that rival any of the lead actor turns, but itâs in a disappointingly smaller number. The race will indeed continue to shift in the coming weeks, but as the last few unseen films start to screen throughout November, the board will be unveiled and the campaigns will kick into high gear.For now, hereâs how I see the current state of the Best Actress race, ranked in order of likelihood to be nominated, not likelihood to win.1. Julianne Moore, Still Alice2. Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything3. Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl4. Reese Witherspoon, Wild5. Amy Adams, Big Eyes6. Shailene Woodley, The Fault in Our Stars7. Hilary Swank, The Homesman8. Emily Blunt, Into the Woods9. Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Belle10. Jenny Slate, Obvious Child
Click over to Page 2 for Updated Predictions for Best Picture and Best Actor
Again, these are ranked in order of likelihood to secure a nomination.
Best Picture
1. Boyhood
2. Selma
3. Unbroken
4. The Imitation Game
5. Birdman
6. The Theory of Everything
7. Gone Girl
8. Whiplash
9. Foxcatcher
10. American Sniper
11. Interstellar
12. A Most Violent Year
13. Wild
14. Mr. Turner
15. Into the WoodsÂ
Best ActorÂ
1. Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
2. David Oyelowo, Selma
3. Michael Keaton, Birdman
4. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
5. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
6. Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year
7. Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
8. Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner
9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
10. Miles Teller, Whiplash