For the second year in a row, the Best Actress race is far more interesting than the race for Best Actor. There have been a bevy of stunning leading actress performances in 2016, and while the Oscar race is still in its fairly early stages, we’ve seen a number of ups and downs. This one’s going to be one of the hardest to predict come Oscar night, as I can foresee a slew of different outcomes, but whoever wins we can rest assured it’ll be for a phenomenal performance.

In coordination with my continuing Oscar coverage here on Collider in the form of Oscar Beat, I’ve put together a few predictions pieces that will be updated as the race moves forward. Below, I’ve assembled some predictions for the Best Actress race, dividing contenders up into a couple of different categories. Keep in mind that, this being the Oscar race and all, things can and will change often, but as of right now, this is the lay of the land.

Last updated December 9th.

Frontrunners

1. Emma Stone – La La Land

2. Natalie Portman – Jackie

3. Annette Bening – 20th Century Women

4. Ruth Negga — Loving

5. Isabelle Huppert – Elle

Emma Stone launched to the front of the Best Actress pack when La La Land debuted at Telluride in September, and indeed she still appears to be the frontrunner here, but she’s got some serious competition. Natalie Portman—who won this category for Black Swan—gives quite possibly the best performance of her career in Jackie, where a haunting and nuanced turn as Jackie Kennedy in the wake of JFK’s assassination is the heart and soul of the film. Indeed, Portman could even have a leg up given that Jackie is all about her performance. It’s a very intimate film that meditates on grief and legacy, and Portman shines all the way through. On the other hand, while Stone is very much the protagonist of La La Land and has a show-stopping number called “Audition”, she does share screentime with her co-lead Ryan Gosling.

But there’s also Ruth Negga’s measured, quiet strength in Loving that has the potential to break out big. The film itself is so small in its voice that many wonder how heavily it might break into the Oscar fold, but Negga’s breakout performance cannot be denied, as she navigates issues of both race and gender in this true story of an interracial married couple fighting for the right to stay married. While the pic's profile has waned a tad in recent weeks, it'll be interesting to see what Focus Features does to give it one last push before voting begins.

Annette Bening is also turning heads for her leading performance in Beginners filmmaker Mike Mills’ family drama 20th Century Women, but rising in the ranks is Isabelle Huppert for her strong turn in Paul Verhoeven's new film Elle. The pic premiered at Cannes in May, but picked up more notice on the Fall Film Festival circuit. Where Huppert is really getting a boost is in the critics awards. She won Best Actress from both the New York Film Critics Circle and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, and while critics don't vote for Oscars, her name is certainly rising into the spotlight due to these honors. The acting categories can sometimes throw a bit of a curveball in there at the last minute, and they're no stranger to foreign film noms (or wins—ask Marion Cotillard), so Huppert is definitely in this race.

In the Mix

arrival-amy-adams-2
Image via Paramount

6. Amy Adams — Arrival

7. Meryl Streep — Florence Foster Jenkins

8. Taraji P. Henson – Hidden Figures 

Just outside the pack is Amy Adams, who’s been nominated for five Oscars already and gives one of her best performances of her career in Arrival. It remains to be seen how strongly the film will connect with Academy members given their apprehension to the sci-fi genre, but Arrival is a very intimate, emotional story of grief, so if it plays big I think Adams gets a sixth nomination. And deservedly so.

Meryl Streep is, of course, an Academy favorite, and her winning turn in Florence Foster Jenkins could result in a whopping 20th Oscar nomination. With The Weinstein Company at its back, Florence Foster Jenkins could certainly be this year's Philomena given how well it's been playing with the older voters, and TWC just recently put the film back in theaters to raise its profile once more.

There’s also Hidden Figures, a late entry into the race but a crowd-pleasing one that could get Taraji P. Henson her second Oscar nomination. It’s an ensemble film and Henson may be a bit overshadowed, but she’s certainly one to keep an eye on.

Outside Contenders

miss-sloane-jessica-chastain
Image via EuropaCorp

9. Jessica Chastain – Miss Sloane

10. Kate Beckinsale – Love & Friendship

11. Rebecca Hall – Christine

12. Marion Cotillard – Allied

On the fringe, there hasn’t been too much buzz about Shakespeare in Love director John Madden’s political drama Miss Sloane, but Jessica Chastain is a multiple nominee and Academy favorite, so she’s a possibility. Kate Beckinsale and Rebecca Hall have also been earning raves for their turns in the indies Love & Friendship and Christine, respectively. And while Allied wasn't the most successful of films—with critics or audiences—a portion of the Academy could take to Robert Zemeckis' throwback romance, and previous Best Actress winner Marion Cotillard is certainly something of an Oscar favorite.

And if you're wondering where Viola Davis is for Fences, she's officially being submitted for consideration under Best Supporting Actress. So, yeah, we can probably go ahead and start the engraving now.

For more on this year's Oscar race, click here to follow along with all of my Oscar Beat coverage thus far. And peruse the links below for my other predictions pieces.