It’s that time of year, folks. It’s hard to believe that just a few months ago we were in the midst of the fall movie season beginning, with many of the year’s most anticipated Oscar contenders still unseen. But we’re now into the thick of it, with the Oscar race taking as some major films broke out in a big way at the fall festivals, while others have fizzled faster than you can say Unbroken.

While the Oscar race is indeed a fluid beast, I've been offering my predictions in a number of categories for a few weeks now, providing a snapshot of where things stand at any given moment. This post will be regularly updated as the race does indeed change, so for now, check out the latest update as of January 5th.

Frontrunners

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Image via CBS Films/Lionsgate

1. La La Land

2. Moonlight

3. Manchester by the Sea

4. Arrival

5. Hidden Figures

6. Hell or High Water

7. Fences

8. Lion

9. Hacksaw Ridge

10. Silence

Oscar nominations voting has officially begun, and with SAG weighing in with its nominations and the Writers Guild of America and Art Directors Guild offering up their respective nominees, things are starting to take the final shape. There are three virtual locks at this point in time: La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea. If one of these three fails to land a Best Picture nomination I will eat my hat and shoe and sock. But beyond that, things get tricky.

First, the boosts. Hidden Figures—a late entry to the race—may ride that "feel-good" train all the way to the Oscars as it landed a number of SAG nominations (including Best Ensemble) as well as a WGA nomination. That means there's widespread support for this film despite its late release date, and it's looking more and more like a sure thing. Hell or High Water also scored SAG and WGA noms and feels like a surer thing every day.

But presumed major contenders like Silence and Jackie have largely gotten the shaft from the guilds. Martin Scorsese's faith-driven drama is not an easy film to unpack, and it's been largely ignored by critics groups as Paramount seems to be putting more of its weight behind Arrival. It missed out on a screenplay nomination from SAG in favor of Deadpool, which just seems downright mean, and could signal that this film may not have the widespread support needed for a Best Picture nomination. Jackie too was seen as a major contender, but it missed out on a WGA nomination—which was expected—and failed to land SAG notice beyond Natalie Portman.

But really, beyond all of this, it's very much a guessing game. More will become clear when the Producers Guild and Directors Guild weigh in, but as of now this is how I see things playing out.

In the Mix

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Image via Fox Searchlight

11. Florence Foster Jenkins

12. Jackie

13. Loving

14. Sully

15. 20th Century Women

Dropping in a big way is Sully, which once felt like the perfect film for the older white demographic of the Academy, but has since been snubbed by some of the major precursor groups. Tom Hanks shockingly didn't land a Best Actor nod from SAG, nor did the movie score a Best Ensemble nomination. Warner Bros. hasn't missed out on the Best Picture race in a very long time, but this could be the year they don't crack the category.

Florence Foster Jenkins was a sizeable hit for Paramount and has the reliable Meryl Streep in its corner, and I think it has the potential to be a somewhat surprising little-engine-that-could, especially since the studio just put it back into theaters.

As for Loving, director Jeff Nichols' intimate interracial marriage drama was once a pretty formidable Best Picture player, but after being snubbed by the SAG Awards—especially Ruth Negga for Best Actress—it's looking less likely that this refreshingly quiet drama will make it in. Still, a resurgence is possible.

Beginners filmmaker Mike Mills' follow-up film 20th Century Women garnered swell reviews at NYFF, and while the reaction wasn't necessarily rapturous, there's plenty of buzz around Annette Bening and Greta Gerwig's performances, and the film could certainly find Academy support.

Outside Contenders

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Image via Bleeker Street

16. Captain Fantastic

17. Nocturnal Animals

18. Patriots Day

19. The Jungle Book

20. Zootopia

These are the films that are on the fringes, and could break into the Best Picture conversation at some point, but are still a little on the outside looking in at the moment. One of the bigger surprises on this awards circuit is the resurfacing of Captain Fantastic, a Sundance indie that was released in the summer. Viggo Mortensen looks like a solid Best Actor contender, and the film itself scored a Best Ensemble SAG nod.

Tom Ford’s long-awaited A Single Man follow-up Nocturnal Animals debuted at TIFF last month, and while I absolutely loved it, some critics found it shallow or “trashy”, which is a criticism I can’t really comprehend.

Peter Berg was potentially in the awards race a couple of years ago with Lone Survivor, but the film failed to gain any serious steam. He could find more success with his Boston Marathon bombing drama Patriots Day, starring Mark Wahlberg, assuming the film has the goods. Reviews have been mostly positive so far, but it's tough to get a read on this one. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross are composing the score, so at the very least that’s one aspect worth looking out for.

Live by Night looks to be D.O.A. as reception does not seem to be kind to Ben Affleck's directorial follow-up to Argo, but the underrated/underseen Sing Street landed a surprise Golden Globe nomination for Best Picture - Comedy/Musical, so perhaps that signal boost could convince Academy voters to pop in that screener and witness one of the year's most delightful films.

Look for more Oscar Beat coverage soon, and click here to catch up on all of this season's columns so far. For more predictions, peruse the links below:

Best Actor

Best Actress

Best Director

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Image via Roadside Attractions
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Image via Paramount Pictures
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Image via Entertainment Weekly/Pablo Larrain
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Image via Summit Entertainment