If you’ve been paying attention to Collider over the past couple of weeks, you’ve noticed a lot of content out of the Toronto International Film Festival. The splashy fest is home to debuts and screenings of some of the biggest movies from the upcoming fall/winter movie season, as well as some golden indies that secure distribution based on buzz from the TIFF screenings. But TIFF is also one of the places where the Oscar race begins. It’s the third in a trio of fall festivals that serve to kick off the year’s awards race, coming on the heels of Telluride and Venice. Reaction from critics and audience members at TIFF can sometimes launch a film into the awards race in a big way (see: La La Land, Gravity, and Dallas Buyers Club), while it’s also a place where some potential contenders falter before they get started (see: Cloud Atlas).
Having just returned from nine days at TIFF, and being Collider’s resident awards editor, I wanted to bring you the skinny on the big films I saw from an Oscar perspective. What are the likeliest nominations for The Shape of Water? Is The Weinstein Company back in the race with The Current War? Answers to all of this and more below.
Battle of the Sexes
Can Emma Stone pull off back to back Best Actress nominations? It’s entirely possible. Battle of the Sexes—which at once is a Billie Jean King biopic, a coming-out story, a sports drama, and a film about sexism—received a fairly positive response at TIFF, and Stone’s performance is the goods. The film didn’t go off as rapturously as may be needed to launch it into the Best Picture conversation, but it has a couple of "it" factors going for it: 1. Bringing out Billie Jean King on the press circuit is a huge draw and she is positively charming and 2. It offers the clearest parallel to the Clinton/Trump narrative of any movie this year thus far. Both of these could easily vault its chances at scoring a Best Picture nomination, despite more subdued reviews.
Best Shots at Nominations
Best Picture
Actress – Emma Stone
Original Screenplay – Simon Beaufoy
Breathe
Andy Serkis’ directorial debut Breathe is a very traditional (old-fashioned even) biopic, but it boasts a pretty terrific lead performance from Andrew Garfield that could garner notice. Garfield plays a man who becomes paralyzed from the neck down after contracting polio, and then makes the most out of his new life on a respirator. It’s a nice film, but doesn’t ever really rise above to become something more. Reviews were somewhat mixed so this one may be a longshot, but Garfield’s a possibility here.
Best Shots at Nominations
Actor – Andrew Garfield
Call Me By Your Name
The Sundance sensation Call Me By Your Name did exactly what Sony Pictures Classics was hoping at TIFF—grow its legion of passionate fans. The film went over incredibly well, and still seems on track to be a major player in the awards race to come. I only hope that Armie Hammer’s tremendous supporting/co-starring work doesn’t go unnoticed.
Best Shots at Nominations
Best Picture
Director – Luca Guadagnino
Actor – Timothee Chalamet
Supporting Actor - Michael Stuhlbarg
Adapted Screenplay – James Ivory
Editing
Production Design
Original Song
The Current War
Coming into The Current War, a film The Weinstein Company has been trying to make for years, the question was whether TWC would be back in fighting shape for this awards season. The answer, undoubtedly, is no. This chronicle of the AC/DC battle between Thomas Edison and George Westinghouse is surprisingly devoid of dramatic stakes (both men are successful, married, and wealthy at the beginning of the movie), and while Benedict Cumberbatch and Michael Shannon are fine in the roles, the script is too disjointed and unfocused to coalesce into an impactful or meaningful experience. Reviews were not kind, so this one’s a non-starter.
Best Shots at Nominations
Production Design
Darkest Hour
Buzz on Darkest Hour was strong coming into TIFF as it had just had its world premiere at the Telluride Film Festival, and it did not disappoint. This is a traditional Oscar contender with a modern flair—a World War II drama/biopic hybrid with a transformative lead performance, but captured with dynamic and visceral filmmaking from director Joe Wright. That’s a lethal combination regardless of Academy makeup, and indeed Darkest Hour’s biggest threat at the moment is whether Academy voters are keen to recognize two films in the same year about the same event (Dunkirk), even if they tell the story from entirely different points of view. One thing is for absolute certain: Gary Oldman has a Best Actor nomination in the bag, if not the win already. More on Darkest Hour’s Oscar chances can be found here.
Best Shots at Nominations
Best Picture
Actor – Gary Oldman
Director – Joe Wright
Original Screenplay – Anthony McCarten
Score
Cinematography
Production Design
Costume Design
Editing
Hairstyling and Makeup
Downsizing
Filmmaker Alexander Payne has landed Best Picture nominations for his last three films in a row, but that streak could come to an end with Downsizing. The comedy/drama stars Matt Damon as a man who takes advantage of a new technological innovation that allows him to shrink himself to five inches tall and live in a community where his money is far more valuable. It’s a weird film, and one that at times feels like three or four different movies stitched together as its narrative arc goes to some very unexpected places. Reception out of the Venice and Telluride festivals was somewhat divisive, and that grew even more exaggerated at TIFF. Some people hated it, a few loved it, and most were pretty mixed on it.
Payne is beloved and Hong Chau gives a terrific performance that could earn her some recognition, but this one is far from a sure thing.
Best Shots at Nominations
Supporting Actress – Hong Chau
The Florida Project
This one marks the second feature from Tangerine filmmaker Sean Baker, and it first debuted to wild acclaim at Cannes earlier this year. The Florida Project has now hit the fall festival circuit and it’s playing like gangbusters. This is a tearjerker of the highest order; a special little film with phenomenal performances and a big heart. Willem Dafoe is at the very least guaranteed Supporting Actor notice, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the film gets into the Best Picture race. A lot of this will come down to how widely this film is seen by the Academy. It’s a small movie, but then again so was Moonlight and we know how that played out. If A24 is able to use those Beasts of the Southern Wild comparisons to get folks to actually watch the thing, I’m fairly confident it’ll get into the Best Picture race.
Best Shots at Nominations
Best Picture
Supporting Actor – Willem Dafoe
Editing
Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Buzz has been swirling about Annette Bening scoring another Best Actress nomination for Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool, and that certainly seems like it could be the case. TIFF response was a bit more muted than it was for the film out of Telluride, but regardless if Sony Pictures Classics pushes hard enough, Bening could be in the conversation.
Best Shots at Nominations
Actress – Annette Bening
Hostiles
Hostiles is tricky because the film may not even come out this year. Out of the Furnace and Black Mass director Scott Cooper’s incredibly gritty Western is still seeking distribution, but if it does get picked up and released this year, Christian Bale is an outside possibility for a Best Actor nomination and Masanobu Takayanagi’s cinematography may be hard to ignore.
Best Shots at Nominations
Actor – Christian Bale
Cinematography – Masanobu Takayanagi
I, Tonya
While TIFF launches Oscar movies, it’s also a place of business where films without distributors get sold to buyers. That was the case with I, Tonya, which sparked a bidding war after its premiere screening. Director Craig Gillespie’s (Lars and the Real Girl) film is a darkly comedic, surprisingly emotional chronicle of Tonya Harding’s life leading up to and through the Nancy Kerrigan scandal. Margot Robbie and Allison Janney are downright extraordinary in the film, spinning from comedy to drama on a dime without missing a beat. The big question mark here is Neon, which secured distribution rights and will release the film. The new studio doesn’t have any experience running Oscar campaigns, but if they can hit the ground running, a pair of acting nominations are definitely not out of the question. If this thing really hits, Steven Rogers could even crack into the Original Screenplay conversation.
Best Shots at Nominations
Actress – Margot Robbie
Supporting Actress – Allison Janney
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Greek filmmaker Yorgos Lanthimos scored his first nomination last year for Best Original Screenplay for The Lobster, so the director is squarely on the Academy’s radar at this point. That said, Best Original Screenplay is very competitive this year, and Lanthimos’ new film The Killing of a Sacred Deer is extremely dark, even by Lanthimos standards. This one’s chances are a little tough to suss out at the moment—response at TIFF was positive, but distributor (and reigning Best Picture champion) A24 may be putting the majority of their awards resources into more agreeable choices like Lady Bird and The Florida Project. Never say never though, and I’d even launch Colin Farrell into the Best Actor race as a dark horse for a nomination.
Best Shots at Nominations
Original Screenplay - Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Filippou
Lady Bird
Directorial debuts are hard, but Lady Bird proves Greta Gerwig has the goods. Grounded, funny, emotional—Lady Bird fires on all cylinders, and the rapturous response from Telluride continued at TIFF, where the film was lavished with praise. Best Actress is incredibly crowded this year but Saoirse Ronan has a shot at cracking it, and the film itself could land a Best Picture nomination if voters don’t dismiss it outright as a “teen” movie. But I think its best chance at a nomination comes in the form of Gerwig’s tight, assured screenplay.
Best Shots at Nominations
Best Picture
Actress – Saoirse Ronan
Original Screenplay – Greta Gerwig
Molly’s Game
Aaron Sorkin won an Oscar for writing The Social Network, then was completely snubbed a nomination for writing Steve Jobs, so getting an accurate gauge on how the Academy feels about him is difficult. Molly’s Game marks Sorkin’s directorial debut, and while it’s yet another singular and snappy screenplay, the film itself is less refined than his last two features. That said, Molly’s Game is an incredibly fun ride and features some dynamite performances that could land recognition. Jessica Chastain is the standout, obviously, carrying the entire film, and Idris Elba could get some Supporting Actor love for a limited yet impactful role. This is a weird one—response was positive, but while everyone agreed the film is incredibly entertaining, reaction was split on whether the film is capital G Great. It’s possible the critics awards boost its status, or it’s also possible Molly’s Game gets labeled as “entertaining” but not award worthy. We shall see.
Best Shots at Nominations
Actress – Jessica Chastain
Supporting Actor – Idris Elba
Adapted Screenplay – Aaron Sorkin
mother!
As evidenced by reactions upon its release, Darren Aronofsky’s new film mother! is incredibly divisive. Critics at TIFF were even split on what the movie is actually about, leading to confusion and arguments aplenty. Some folks hate this movie while others herald it as a masterpiece. It’s too early to tell if this one will survive the long slog towards Oscars, but one imagines some year-end critics awards could boost its stature and Jennifer Lawrence is always a safe bet for at least a nomination. Then again, she’s never, ever been in anything remotely like mother! before, and box office performance isn't going to do this one any favors. Put a big ol’ question mark on this one for the next month or so.
Best Shots at Nominations
Actress – Jennifer Lawrence
Cinematography – Matthew Libatique
Mudbound
When Dee Rees’ Southern epic Mudbound got scooped up by Netflix at Sundance, folks wondered if the streaming service could really go all the way with an Oscar campaign. Unfortunately, while those who caught Mudbound at TIFF seemed to love it, the film didn’t really spark the kind of buzz that usually leads to a long and healthy road to Oscar. That could definitely change, and Netflix is the wild west, but response to Mudbound was disappointingly muted at TIFF.
Best Shots at Nominations
Best Picture
Adapted Screenplay – Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
Professor Marston and the Wonder Women
Annapurna Pictures released its first self-distributed feature this summer with Detroit, but they may have a better shot at Oscar nominations with their second 2017 feature, Professor Marston and the Wonder Women. The true-story drama chronicles the polyamorous relationship that developed between Wonder Woman creator William Moulton Marston, his wife, and a student of theirs, and how that complex relationship—and the women—gave birth to one of the greatest feminist icons of all time. Rebecca Hall is a revelation in the film, and if Annapurna is smart they’ll start leaning into that performance hard to land a Best Actress nomination.
Beyond that other nods may be a stretch, but Angela Robinson does a terrific job bringing this story to the screen as writer and director.
Best Shots at Nominations
Actress – Rebecca Hall
Roman J. Israel Esq.
Nightcrawler put screenwriter Dan Gilroy on the map as an adept director as well, so anticipation was high for Gilroy’s follow-up Roman J. Israel Esq—especially with Denzel Washington in the lead role. Unfortunately, the film is nowhere near as narratively tight as Nightcrawler, and Washington’s performance is either pitched too high or too low as an “on the spectrum” defense attorney who takes a job at a major law firm. Reviews were mixed, and this is the kind of performance-driven drama that needs strong critical support to make a splash in a crowded marketplace. If the film gets a second wind Washington could maybe break into the Best Actor conversation, but that’s about it.
Best Shots at Nominations
None
The Shape of Water
This is the big one. If you can point to any single film coming out of TIFF as having landed the biggest response, it’s Guillermo del Toro’s immaculately crafted fairy tale The Shape of Water. This one seems to be surprising everyone—I spoke to plenty of people who are usually unmoved by del Toro’s films that found Shape of Water to be incredibly emotional, and on a scene to scene basis this thing absolutely soars. Major nominations across the board are on tap. This one's just getting started.
Best Shots at Nominations
Best Picture
Director
Actress – Sally Hawkins
Supporting Actor – Richard Jenkins
Original Screenplay – Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor
Cinematography
Score
Editing
Production Design
Costume Design
Hairstyling and Makeup
Stronger
On the surface Stronger may seem like a by-the-numbers tearjerker, but in practice David Gordon Green’s gritty drama is a complicated story about heroism, struggle, and relationships. Jake Gyllenhaal delivers an astounding performance as Jeff Bauman, the man who lost his legs at the Boston Marathon bombing while cheering on his girlfriend from the sidelines. Tatiana Maslany plays his on-again/off-again girlfriend in the film to terrific results, and Miranda Richardson gives a tough performance as Jeff’s mother. This film seemed to have gone unnoticed at the festival, but having caught it myself I can attest to its high quality—especially as it relates to the performances. Lack of buzz may make this a nonstarter, especially since it hits theaters so soon, but depending on how crowded the Best Actor race gets Gyllenhaal has a shot at sneaking in.
Best Shots at Nominations
Actor – Jake Gyllenhaal
Suburbicon
Leading up to its debut, Suburbicon looked to be one of the most promising films of George Clooney’s directing career, but this darkly comedic tale of 1950s murder and race fell pretty flat at TIFF. Clooney and Grant Heslov co-wrote the script based on an older script by Joel and Ethan Coen, but the stitching together of these two takes—the suburban murder tale by the Coens and the first black family in white suburbia in the Clooney/Heslov portion—is unrefined and makes for a messy watch. Reviews haven’t been kind, and this one doesn't really appear to be a serious contender in the awards race.
Best Shots at Nominations
Production Design
Costume Design