The more you think about the identity of Negan’s victim in AMC’s The Walking Dead, the more your head starts to spin with possibilities, reasons, and the possible impact from their death. The show infamously ended Season 6 with a cop-out of epic proportions by stringing audiences along during the off-season, forcing them to wait until the Season 7 premiere to find out who was at the business end of Lucille. While I personally think that an off-season discussion of how so-and-so’s death would impact the group in Season 7, there’s still merit to discussing the odds on just who The Walking Dead will be killing off.
Theories exist in multitudes across the internet, and you can find plenty arguing that your favorite character will definitely die and that that same character will definitely survive. Only a handful of people know for sure. Will the AMC show follow the comic books, in which a fan-favorite character meets their grisly end? Will they opt to off one of the characters who is original to the show or whose TV version has survived beyond that of their comic book counterpart? We’ll find out for sure at 9pm on Sunday, October 23rd. But until then, we’ve laid out the odds for survival for each of the dozen or so characters currently at Negan’s mercy, and offered up some rationale as to why their death would or would not be a smart narrative decision.
Take a look at our breakdown of the 11 (or 12) characters on their knees in front of Negan, ranked from least likely to die, to most. I’ve also checked the latest bookmaker’s odds I could find as a reference point. Spoilers follow.