Weekend Box Office – It’s a Draw. COWBOYS AND ALIENS Tie THE SMURFS with $36.2 Million Each

by     Posted 2 years, 267 days ago

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At the moment the estimates for the weekend’s two top films are dead even: a box office rarity.  Both Cowboys and Aliens and The Smurfs are claiming estimates of $36.2 million – a figure that is slightly embarrassing for one film and a near miracle for the other.

Title Weekend Total
1 Cowboys and Aliens $36,200,000 $36.2
2 The Smurfs $36,200,000 $36.2
3 Captain America $24,900,000 $116.7
4 Harry Potter 7b $21,900,000 $318.4
5 Crazy Stupid Love $19,300,000 $19.3
6 Friends With Benefits $9,300,000 $38.2
7 Horrible Bosses $7,100,000 $96.2
8 Transformers 3 $5,970,000 $337.8
9 Zookeeper $4,200,000 $68.7
10 Cars 2 $2,300,000 $182

The Smurfs 3D movie poster (1)One week ago Cowboys and Aliens was the obvious choice for a number one finish with as much as $50 million while The Smurfs seemed destined for the type of “Judy Moody,” also-ran commentary that I routinely tack on to the end of my column.  Instead it seems probable that The Smurfs will wind up the weekend winner by the time actual figures are revealed on Monday thanks to Sunday’s family audience uptick.

There has been talk of bringing The Smurfs to the big screen for at least a decade.  The little blue gnomes were a marketing juggernaut in the 1980s (thanks to a popular cartoon and thousands of tiny plastic collectables) and continued to be big overseas even longer.  The Smurfs movie truly got off the ground following the success of Fox’s Alvin and the Chipmunks films, both of which earned over $200 million at the domestic box office.  Still, few outside of Sony foresaw an outsized success for The Smurfs. For starters, both Alvin films had December release dates: prime time for family films.  Add in the recent trend of diminishing returns for both talking critter pics and 3D releases and it looked like the $110 million The Smurfs might break even (at best) or wind up a box office punchline (at worst).

In terms of reviews, The Smurfs scored just 20% on Rotten Tomatoes.  Early tracking for the film was not promising, with projections putting it as low as $18 million.  Even if Monday’s actuals give Cowboys and Aliens the crown, Sony can feel vindicated that they doubled expectations.  So how to explain this outcome?  Although The Smurfs played in fewer locations (3,395 runs to Cowboys 3,750), higher 3D ticket prices accounted for approximately 40% of its grosses.  Additionally, this summer was especially light on all-ages releases (Cars 2 debuted six weeks ago and Kung Fu Panda 2 three weeks before that) so the time was right for a family-sized PG hit.

cowboys-and-aliens-poster-daniel-craig-harrison-ford-ign-brandedOne thing this summer was not light on was big action pics… though what summer is?  After Transformers 3, Captain America and all of 2011’s other male-skewing titles, perhaps audiences were feeling a bit jaded by the time Cowboys and Aliens came along.  Though the film has an impeccable pedigree (Favreau, Spielberg, etc., etc.) and was marketed to within an inch of its life, Friday’s disappointing launch of $13 million (less than what Battle: Los Angeles earned in March) spelled trouble for the would-be tentpole.

Earlier this summer I saw the $35.4 million launch of Super 8 (another summer pic with Spielberg in the credits) as a bit of a disappointment.  That film had an early summer release date nearly to itself and I believed it should have come out of the gate stronger.  Well, there’s nothing like a little perspective to reevaluate your position.  Super 8 has so far earned $124.6 million in the US alone – a figure that would be impressive for an original film even without its thrifty $50 million budget.  In contrast Cowboys and Aliens – a movie that took nearly ten years and as many writers to merit only 44% on Rotten Tomatoes – ended up with an opening equivalent to Super 8 but a budget more than three times as high.  Previous summer movies have been saved by international interest, but without 3D effects I’m not sure that’s in the cards for Cowboys and Aliens.

As the weekend’s best reviewed film, (74% at RT) Crazy, Stupid, Love probably deserves better than to be stuck at the end of this article, but box office life is rarely fair.  From its debut 3,020 locations the romantic dramedy took in an estimated $19.3 million which was just slightly higher than projected.

In other news: last week’s number one Captain America: The First Avenger crossed the $100 million mark on Saturday while Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 officially passed The Sorcerer’s Stone to become the franchise’s top domestic grosser with a giant $318.4 million in 17 days.  Overall, this was the third weekend in a row to top 2010 levels.  Next week should make it four if the early tracking for Rise of the Planet of the Apes can be trusted.

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  • Hiro the Eighth Samurai (and 14th Assassin)

    Wow, so “The Smurfs” overachieves (Golly, gee those Smurfs are some plucky mother-smurfers!), and “Cowboys & Aliens” really sinks like a stone. I’m in full agreement. That’s a huge failure for Cowboys & Aliens.

  • jymmymack

    I think the word of mouth screening for Cowboys and Aliens really did it in. Everyone at my screening had nothing but bad things to say.

    • Hiro the Eighth Samurai (and 14th Assassin)

      For all the unhinged, seemingly psychotic bashing that the fanboys and fanboy-like people spill out on movie critics, it’s really word of mouth (and other outside promotional efforts) that can help a film rise or make it sink.

      For the most part, people who are going to see a movie will see it regardless of what the majority of critics say.

      People who like to read reviews aren’t puppets, or remote control robots. They’re simply going to critics to persuade them to either see or skip a movie. The reader is the one in control. They ultimately make the decision. It’s not like the critics are calling them, e-mailing and arriving at their homes unannounced and unwanted to twist their arms.

      If a movie has good word of mouth it can start doing better that weekend, or still be very strong in the weeks to come.

      • jymmymack

        Exactly. I know some friends who trust my opinion. I told them that I found the film to be really rather boring and plain after the exciting opening, and sure enough, they all went and saw Attack the Block instead. Word of mouth.

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  • aaronsullivan

    So, without 3D Smurfs would be number 3 with 21.7 million? I do wonder if this is going to last. I also wonder if Cowboys and Aliens would have made significantly more if it was in 3D.

    Personally, my wife and I really enjoyed Cowboys and Aliens. Expectations were a little low, but I haven’t found any of the problems I’ve seen in reviews to be problems for me personally. Some people I think had expectations of goofiness or silly fun from the title, but this film never suggested that in any of the advertising and I never considered it either.

  • ipolos

    I think it’s a case where marketing really failed the film. Regardless of the movie’s actual quality, the ads never really quite knew how to sell the movie. It has an appealing title and a pretty unique premise, which should have been taken advantage of.
    Rise of the Planet of the Apes sounds like a much tougher sell. Really long title, and apes arent the most popular things at the movies, but the trailers have done an AMAZING job and pumping people up to watch it. I for one am extremely excited for it…regardless of what reviews say, I’m catching that movie

  • HYPNO TOAD

    COWBOYS & ALIENS was a true letdown. While the movie was not horrible the real title should have been: COWBOYS, INDIANS, AND SOME ALIENS.

    Craig was good as a badass but the script and the horrible casting of Olivia Wilde just made the movie another cash grab.

    There was nothing spectacular about this movie other than the big name cast.

    Dare I say this movie gave me flashbacks of SKYLINE.. Except for the cast and locale the movies reminded me of one another.

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