The Producers Guild Association awards were tonight, and Oscar prognosticators were tuned to what the guild would choose as Best Picture. Since the PGA and the Oscars have expanded the Best Picture category, there have only been two times when the PGA winner didn’t line up with the Oscars: La La Land (the Oscar went to Moonlight) and The Big Short (the Oscar went to Spotlight). Tonight’s ceremony was seen as a way to get a clearer picture on the Oscar race with films like Joker, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917, and Parasite all jockeying for position.
In the end, the PGA awarded their top prize to 1917, which now positions the war drama as the frontrunner in the race. The film picked up the Golden Globe for Best Drama a couple weeks ago, and helmer Sam Mendes is likely to win the Oscar for Best Director since the Academy tends to value technical achievements in the category (see Gravity, Birdman). However, there are a couple knocks against the movie as far as Oscar prognostication goes. The film doesn’t have a Best Editing nomination, which is seen as a requisite. The last film to win Best Picture without the Best Editing nomination was Birdman, which is also cut to look like one long take. 1917 also has zero acting nominations. You’d have to go all the way back 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire for a movie that took home Best Picture without a single acting nomination.
And yet neither hurdle seems insurmountable for 1917, especially if the Academy is looking to recognize a movie that feels like an Academy picture. 1917 checks the boxes of what the Academy wants: a movie that gets people to the theater but is about serious subject matter. While I still wouldn’t discount Joker, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, or Parasite, they now have a tougher mountain to climb to get to that Best Picture win. Right now, I’m putting my money on 1917 with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood looking to upset.
Check out the full list of winners below. The Oscars will air on February 9th at 8pm on ABC.
- Theatrical Motion Picture: 1917
- Animated Theatrical Motion Picture: Toy Story 4
- Episodic Television (Drama): Succession
- Episodic Television (Comedy): Fleabag
- Limited Series: Chernobyl
- Televised or Streamed Motion Picture: Apollo: Missions to the Moon
- Non-Fiction Television: Leaving Neverland
- Live Entertainment & Talk Television: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
- Game & Competition Television: RuPaul’s Drag Race
- Documentary Motion Picture: Apollo 11