Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania is eyeing the worst second-weekend drop for a Marvel Cinematic Universe film, although as current estimates stand, the drop won’t tip over the worrisome 70% mark. The third installment in the Ant-Man series and the 31st film overall in the MCU, Ant-Man 3 is expected to generate $32 million in its second weekend, marking a 69.7% decline from its opening weekend. The film grossed $105 million in its traditional three-day debut, and $120 million across the four-day extended President’s Day weekend.
Ant-Man 3 retained the top spot on the weekend chart despite a surprise over-performance by the week’s big new release, the action-comedy Cocaine Bear. Directed by Elizabeth Banks and starring Keri Russell, O’Shea Jackson Jr. and Alden Ehrenreich, the film is riding a wave of positive buzz on its way to a strong $23 million opening weekend. Cocaine Bear was originally supposed to gross between $15 million and $17 million in its first three days.
This marks a comeback for Banks after her failed franchise-starter Charlie’s Angels, and yet another feather in the cap for Universal, which has had a string of similar original hits. Cocaine Bear also bears the winning stamp of producers Phil Lord and Chris Miller, who’ve previously lent their credibility to the fabulous Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse and The Mitchells vs. the Machines — beyond their work as directors, of course. The film added another $5.3 million from 50 overseas markets, for a global debut of $28 million.
Ant-Man 3, on the other hand, has passed $363 million globally and $167 million domestically. The moderately reviewed superhero threequel now holds the unfortunate distinction of having delivered the worst second-weekend drop for any movie that opened with more than $100 million domestically. Previously, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice sat atop this list, with a 69.1% second weekend drop. In MCU terms, this is worse than the 67.7% second-weekend drop that Thor: Love and Thunder registered last year. The Ant-Man movies typically don’t perform at par with some of the bigger MCU titles, but Marvel had hoped that Ant-Man 3’s status as the first film of Phase Five would inject some extra interest. By comparison, the first Ant-Man ended its global run with $519 million in 2015, and Ant-Man and the Wasp made $622 million worldwide in 2018.
Meanwhile, Lionsgate’s faith-based film Jesus Revolution exceeded expectations for a third-place finish with an estimated $15.5 million. The film was originally projected to make around $7 million heading into the weekend. Avatar: The Way of Water is looking to take the fourth spot with an estimated $4.8 million in its 11th weekend. This takes its running domestic total to a phenomenal $663 million, putting it within days of overtaking another James Cameron blockbuster, Titanic ($673 million). The fifth spot was claimed by Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, which has been quietly purring along at the box office for nearly as long as The Way of Water. The animated sequel is expected to have grossed $4 million in its 10th weekend, taking its running domestic total to $173 million, and more than $430 million worldwide.
Michael B. Jordan’s directorial debut, Creed III, is expected to punch its way through the competition to take the top spot at the box office next week. You can watch our interview with Quantumania director, Peyton Reed, below: