After coming in slightly under expectations at the domestic box office, and with China projected to underperform because of a new COVID wave, Avatar: The Way of Water will likely not surpass Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness to deliver the top global opening of the year. With $127 million from international markets and another $53 million domestically, The Way of Water has made $180 million worldwide so far.

Director James Cameron’s long-awaited sequel to his record-breaking 2009 hit was expected to make between $450 million and $550 million globally after its first weekend, but that number has now been revised to $410 million. The film is currently playing in 52 offshore territories, among which the most notable is China. The Way of Water received a rare (for a Hollywood film) release in the Middle Kingdom, but its hopes were dashed when a new wave of the coronavirus prompted the shutdown of a significant number of theaters.

While Hollywood studios have spent the better part of the last decade pandering to Chinese audiences, government sanctions and a robust evolution of the local industry have made imports less frequent. The only notable Hollywood film to be released in China this year, for instance, is Jurassic World Dominion, which ended up making a little over $150 million there. The first Avatar remains a popular attraction for Chinese crowds, and has grossed $200 million in the country over the years.

Tonowari, played by Cliff Curtis, in Avatar 2 The Way of Water
Image via 20th Century Studios

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The Way of Water was expected to hit $100 million in its Chinese opening, after entering previews earlier in the week. But the projections have since been reduced. So far, the film has grossed $44 million there — not all of this figure has yet been added to the official tally. Neither has the entirety of the $17 million that The Way of Water has picked up in Korea. Produced on a reported budget of $400 million, The Way of Water will need to gross around $2 billion globally to break even, Cameron has suggested.

By comparison, the first film grossed $241 million globally after five days of release. Domestically, the first Avatar made $77 million in its first weekend, which compelled many observers to predict doom. But it famously held spectacularly well over the subsequent weeks. It remains the highest-grossing film in history with $760 million at the domestic box office and over $2.9 billion worldwide.

The record for the biggest global debut is held by Avengers: Endgame ($1.2 billion). This year, Doctor Strange 2 made $450 million in its worldwide opening, while Dominion made $392 million and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever made $330 million. Positive audience reception and a complete lack of competition will help The Way of Water, featuring returning stars Sam Worthington and Zoe Saldaña, stay afloat over the next few weeks. You can watch our interview with Cameron here, and stay tuned to Collider for more updates.