When Avengers: Age of Ultron opens in theaters on May 1st, it’s going to be big at the box office. And by big, I mean massive. Herculean, even. This isn’t a surprise to anyone paying attention, since Age of Ultron is the sequel to the film that holds the record for the highest grossing opening weekend of all time. Moreover, Marvel Studios has been on a roll as of late, with its recent string of films all opening to over $85 million. But the question now is, can Avengers: Age of Ultron surpass The Avengers’ $207.4 million opening weekend?

Per THR, pre-release tracking currently has Avengers: Age of Ultron ahead of The Avengers in nearly all categories, though it is officially projecting an opening weekend between $190-$200 million. It’s hard for sequels to surpass the opening weekends of their predecessors when the first films broke out huge. Spider-Man 2 opened nearly $20 million under Spider-Man, which was the first movie to pass $100 million at the box office on opening weekend. And Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets fell $2 million short of Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone’s $90 million opening.

But insiders are saying that since Age of Ultron is tracking higher than The Avengers in all but one category (“unaided awareness”), it could top $207.4 million on its opening weekend, which is a staggering number. Obviously we’re still weeks away from release so this could all shift, but Marvel’s Phase Two films have all performed better than their Phase One predecessors. Captain America: The Winter Soldier opened to $95 million, Thor: The Dark World took in $85.7 million, and Guardians of the Galaxy—the only non-sequel of the bunch—scored an impressive $94.3 million debut. Of course it all began with Iron Man 3, which raked in $174 million during its opening weekend alone.

So, will Avengers: Age of Ultron be able to top the magic number of $207.4 million on opening weekend? It’s going to be close, but if I were betting I’d say it comes in slightly under that number, maybe somewhere around $200 million. The Avengers had the novelty aspect of bringing all these characters together for the first time, so I’m guessing the lack of that advantage will keep Age of Ultron from just barely missing the mark. But I could most certainly be wrong.

What do you think, folks? Will Age of Ultron surpass The Avengers on opening weekend? Does any of this even matter since the movie’s going to make an insane amount of money anyway? Most importantly, will Avengers: Age of Ultron be good? Sound off in the comments below.