May kicked off with its fair share of surprises, including the huge opening weekend of Pitch Perfect 2 and the under performance of Tomorrowland. While what may have been the biggest blockbuster of the summer (Avengers: Age of Ultron) has already passed, there is still much to look forward to and much money to be made in the coming months. May’s box office is currently down roughly 20% from last year, but June will hopefully reverse that trend.
Below are the domestic box office predictions for June in order of release. This article is devoted to films that are receiving wide releases from their respective distributors and does not include projected international grosses.
Entourage (June 5th - Warner Bros.)
Four years after the end of the hit HBO series, Entourage hits the big screen. Marketing has done a nice job at conveying that the film picks up right where the series left off, and raises the stakes from what we’ve seen so far (Vince is directing a big budget film for former agent turned studio head Ari Gold). Films about the inner workings of Hollywood have a mixed track record at the box office. The genre is filled with successes (Tropic Thunder) as well as disappointments (Be Cool). Entourage also faces direct competition for those seeking laughs this weekend from Spy, which is currently tracking ahead of it significantly.
A good comparison for the film is Sex and the City. Both films were based on their respective HBO series and are being released four years after the shows ended their runs. Entourage has frequently been called a male version of Sex and the City, given the tightly bonded friendships among the main characters. It would be unrealistic, however, to expect Entourage to meet the heights of Sex and the City. Entourage was significantly less popular, and males do not flock to opening weekends the same way that the young female demographics do. Still, given the amount of marketing the film has had so far, and the film’s extremely modest budget ($30 million), this should turn a nice profit for Warner Bros. The film is also being released on Wednesday (June 3), which will take a decent chunk out of its opening weekend figure.
Opening Weekend: $30 million
Projected Range for Final Gross: $40 - $125 million
Estimated Final Gross: $65 million
Insidious: Chapter 3 (June 5th - Focus Features)
In 2011, the first Insidious opened to $13.2 million and rode excellent word-of-mouth to $54 million, a stellar result given that it was produced for just $1.5 million. Its sequel rode this goodwill to a record-breaking $40.2 million opening, and ended its run with $83.5 million.
The Insidious brand is still undeniably strong, and it is being released less than two years after its predecessor. However, the film has a few factors working against it. First, Insidious: Chapter 2 received poor critical reception when compared to its predecessor, and dropped off quickly after its opening weekend. Second, while Chapter 2 was a direct continuation of the events of its predecessor, Insidious: Chapter 3 is a prequel with an almost entirely new cast of characters. The trailers for the film have been somewhat compelling, but horror fans may feel less inclined to come out given that Poltergeist was released just two weeks prior. The film was made on a micro-budget and will by no means be a “flop,” but it will likely gross just a fraction of its predecessor's earnings.
Opening Weekend: $25 million
Projected Range for Final Gross: $35 - $70 million
Estimated Final Gross: $45 million
Spy (June 5th - 20th Century Fox)
Spy sees the re-teaming of Bridesmaids and The Heat director Paul Feig and star Melissa McCarthy. Both films grossed over $150 million at the domestic box office, and Spy seems to fit in nicely with Feig and McCarthy’s line of work.
Melissa McCarthy is one of the few truly bankable stars working in Hollywood today. Last summer’s Tammy, for example, was sold almost entirely on McCarthy’s star power, and managed to gross $84.5 million despite abysmal reviews. Spy has a solid supporting cast that includes Rose Byrne and Jason Statham, and early reviews have been hugely positive. It may not reach the heights of Feig’s previous two films, but Spy should find a large audience despite direct comedy competition from Entourage.
Opening Weekend: $45 million
Projected Range for Final Gross: $80 - $170 million
Estimated Final Gross: $145 million
Jurassic World (June 12th - Universal Pictures)
After spending roughly a decade in development hell, Jurassic World hits the big screen twenty-two years after the original Jurassic Park broke box office records. While the two sequels were not as highly received critically or successful commercially, the original film is still incredibly well regarded as evidenced by the impressive audience for its 3D re-release two years ago. Anticipation for Jurassic World is incredibly high, and Universal has been aggressively marketing the film. Chris Pratt’s presence, coming off the smash hit Guardians of the Galaxy and the finale of Parks and Recreation, will also certainly help.
Other studios have wisely decided to steer clear of Jurassic World, making it the sole wide release this weekend. While it would be unrealistic to expect the film to become the cultural and commercial phenomenon like the original, the film seems guaranteed to have a big opening, and may even steal the June weekend record from Man of Steel ($116.7 million). The real question is how high it can go in the coming weeks. Obviously, this will depend on the actual quality of the film and word-of-mouth, but look for this to be a huge hit for Universal, and quite possibly the highest grossing film of June.
Opening Weekend: $113 million
Projected Range for Final Gross: $200 - $400 million
Estimated Final Gross: $295 million
Inside Out (June 19th - Disney/Pixar)
2014 was the first year since 2005 in which Pixar did not release a film. Aside from Marvel, Pixar is arguably the most reliable company in the film industry to consistently churn out high-quality films that are hits. The company has only had one film that has been rated as “Rotten” (Cars 2), and the brand is closely associated with family-friendly films featuring great humor and emotional depth such as Toy Story, Up, and WALL-E.
Inside Out seems to fit nicely into Pixar’s wheelhouse. It is based on a completely original idea (taking place entirely inside the mind of a child), features a talented voice cast, and top-notch animation. Reviews for the film so far have been overwhelmingly positive, some of which have gone as far as saying that Inside Out is Pixar’s best film. Max opens a week later and could steal away some family audiences, but overall this looks like a sure-fire hit for Disney.
Opening Weekend: $75 million
Projected Range for Final Gross: $190 - $320 million
Estimated Final Gross: $255 million
Dope (June 19th - Open Road Films)
Dope premiered at Sundance earlier this year and Open Road Films purchased the film in a bidding war. Early reviews for the film have been extremely positive, and it should have strong appeal in the African-American community. However, the film does have some factors working against it. Dope's biggest star, Forest Whitaker, is serving behind the camera as producer and as the film's narrator. Awareness for the film as of now appears to be low, but it looks as though Open Road will be giving it a significant marketing push in the next couple of weeks. While this film seems unlikely to break out in a significant way during a highly competitive season, it may provide some solid counter-programming and become a minor hit for Open Road.
Opening Weekend: $9 million
Projected Range for Final Gross: $20 - $60 million
Estimated Final Gross: $30 million
Ted 2 (June 26th - Universal Pictures)
The first Ted was released back in 2012 and was a runaway success with a huge $218.8 million domestic gross and a total worldwide gross of $549.3 million. Comedy sequels, however, tend to be a mixed bag. For every Pitch Perfect 2 or Meet The Fockers, there are many disappointments (Horrible Bosses 2), but Ted 2 seems to be hitting the right criteria and should fall closer to the former category. The film is being released only three years after the original, brings back most of the original cast (save for Mila Kunis), and has a fantastic, laugh-filled red-band trailer. Seth MacFarlane’s brand may have suffered a bit due to the lackluster A Million Ways To Die in the West, and the idea of a foul-mouthed teddy bear definitely doesn’t feel quite as fresh this time around. Still, the original film is well liked, and it doesn’t face any serious competition from comedies until Trainwreck arrives three weeks later. It would be unrealistic for this to reach the heights of its predecessor, but this should be a hit for Universal.
Opening Weekend: $60 million
Projected Range for Final Gross: $125 - $220 million
Estimated Final Gross: $170 million
Max (June 26th - Warner Bros.)
While it's not exactly a potential blockbuster, Max may be the biggest question mark of June. Some of the patriotic audiences that rushed out for American Sniper may be inclined to bring their kids to see this family-friendly, war-themed film, but on the other hand it may fall into that gray area where it seems too childish for adults and too adult-oriented for children. In addition, the film lacks any substantial star power, marketing has been extremely light so far, and the film will likely be overshadowed by the family powerhouse that will be Inside Out. This looks like the kind of film to open small, but depending on the quality may hold up well. It also helps that the film is receiving a wide release just before 4th of July weekend, which is a key time to draw in family audiences.
Opening Weekend: $14 million
Projected Range for Final Gross: $25 - $75 million
Estimated Final Gross: $40 million
Studio Prediction for June
There is much money to be had by the four major studios releasing films this June (Sony and Paramount are waiting until July to release their big films). However, June most definitely belongs to Universal, given that its three releases are all sequels, one of which is the guaranteed behemoth Jurassic World.