Aside from The Martian, the major releases of the past month led to a mostly unexciting October. Paramount made the surprising decision to release Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension on VOD only 17 days after dropping below 300 theaters, causing many major theater chains to pull out of releasing the film, which will lead to a series-low gross for the franchise. Crimson Peak, Our Brand Is Crisis, and Steve Jobs all performed below expectations, despite the fact that Steve Jobs found huge success in its limited release. Despite major stars headlining many of these films (Tom Hanks, Sandra Bullock, Bradley Cooper), this past month will end up well below the record-breaking October of 2014.
Fortunately, November looks as though it will reverse this trend with the release of box office juggernauts Spectre, The Good Dinosaur, and The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2. November of 2014 had somewhat disappointing grosses totaling $965 million, falling well short of November 2012’s record of $1.09 billion, which saw the releases of Skyfall and The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2. If The Peanuts Movie and The Night Before over-perform, this upcoming month has a good chance of beating 2012’s record.
Spectre (Sony – November 6)
Aside from The Hunger Games and Star Wars, Spectre is arguably the most anticipated film of the holiday season. Almost exactly three years ago, Skyfall set a new benchmark for the Bond franchise, grossing $304.3 million domestically and $1.1 billion worldwide.
The critical and commercial love for Skyfall has set expectations incredibly high, and early reviews indicate that Spectre comes close to living up to them (although it’s currently at 65% on Rotten Tomatoes). There has been much speculation as to whether this is Daniel Craig’s last Bond film, particularly with Craig’s recent comments that he would rather slit his wrists than play the character again. While Sony would likely prefer that their lead actor not publicly choose death over playing the role again, these comments have likely only increased the need to see the film, as it may be Craig’s final outing.
The massive box office improvement of Skyfall over Quantum of Solace in many ways felt reminiscent of The Dark Knight’s increase over Batman Begins. Four years later, The Dark Knight Rises went on to gross $448.1 million, or 83.8% of The Dark Knight’s $534.8 million. If Spectre were to follow suit, it would gross $253.9 million. That kind of drop seems steep, but Spectre will likely fall short of Skyfall, to some degree.
- Opening Weekend: $90 million
- Projected Gross Range: $230 million - $300 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $270 million
The Peanuts Movie (Fox – November 6)
The Peanuts Movie arrives fifteen years after the last original Peanuts strip was written and the death of creator Charles M. Schulz. While this may cause concern for the quality of this film, the good news is Schulz’s son (Craig Schulz) and grandson (Brian Schulz) serve as producers and writers, and the trailers have done a good job at making it clear that the spirit and style of the comic strip have transferred over to the big screen.
Box office wise, this film does face a few hurdles. While older audiences will likely be drawn in by nostalgia, a large portion of the younger population may not have grown up with Peanuts. In addition, younger audiences have grown accustomed to the ultra sharp and refined animation from Pixar and Illumination, and may be put off by the arguably less impressive visual style here.
The studio has wisely timed the film around the 65th anniversary of the comic strip and the 50th anniversary of the TV special A Charlie Brown Christmas, which should help build up the hype. The Peanuts Movie will also have family audiences to itself for a few weeks before The Good Dinosaur arrives, which should help it reach the box office heights of past Blue Sky hits Horton Hears A Who! and Rio, if not higher.
- Opening Weekend: $45 million
- Estimated Gross Range: $130 million - $190 million
- Projected Final Gross: $155 million
The 33 (Warner Bros. – November 13)
The 33 is based on the 2010 mining disaster in which thirty-three miners were trapped inside the San Jose Mine in Chile for over two months. While the incident was heavily publicized and is an undeniably appealing story for a film, The 33 does not look to break out in any significant way.
Most successful films based on true stories are ones in which the incident took place in or around the United States. There are some exceptions to this rule (Titanic, Life Is Beautiful) but they are typically awards contenders, and given its current 44% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, The 33 does seem to fit into this category.
In addition, while the cast is filled with talented and recognizable actors (Antonio Banderas, Rodrigo Santoro), they do not possess much in the way of box office drawing power. Look for The 33 to end up closer to other true story domestic box office disappointments Pompeii and The Impossible.
- Opening Weekend: $6 million
- Projected Gross Range: $8 million – $22 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $14 million
Love The Coopers (November 13 – CBS Films)
Family comedies released around fall/winter have in many cases have been very successful, such as Meet The Parents or The Family Stone. However, a big part of what made these comedies so successful was the “hook” for audiences: watching the main character having trouble fitting in with a potential spouse’s family. Love The Coopers lacks any kind of similar hook, and aside from the cast (Ed Helms, Diane Keaton, Amanda Seyfried, among others), there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot here to make it stand out among the crowd.
While the cast is recognizable, Love The Coopers lacks a major star to help appeal to larger audiences. Another concern here is that we’re two weeks away from its release and we’ve seen virtually nothing in the way of publicity or marketing for this film, which is normally a sign of the studio’s lack of confidence in its product. Look for this to end up on the lower end of Christmas-themed films.
- Opening Weekend: $7 million
- Projected Gross Range: $10 million - $25 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $18 million
My All American (November 13 – Clarius Entertainment)
A late addition to the November calendar, My All American is based on the life of college football standout Freddie Steinmark and his biography Courage Beyond The Game: The Freddie Steinmark Story. Unfortunately, there’s not much here that makes it stand out from other underdog sports dramas.
Sports dramas typically gain traction by being based on a widely known true story or book (42, Friday Nights Lights) or having a huge star (Invincible), neither of which My All American has going for it. Though the studio has been marketing the film quite a bit online, this seems likely to end up on the lower end of football dramas, right around 2008’s The Express ($9.7 million).
- Opening Weekend: $4 million
- Projected Gross Range: $5 million - $15 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $11 million
The Night Before (November 20 – Sony/Columbia)
The Night Before marks the second collaboration between director Jonathan Levine and stars Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Seth Rogen. Although 50/50 was not a huge box office smash, it was extremely well received by critics and audiences and showcased the chemistry between Rogen and Gordon-Levitt. That film also managed to perform well despite the plot centering on the main character battling cancer, and this time around, three friends reuniting for a night of debauchery is lighter and has the potential to appeal to a much broader audience.
Anthony Mackie, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, and Seth Rogen make for an appealing ensemble, and they have strong support from Lizzy Caplan and Mindy Kaling. The film will also have comedy audiences to itself until Sisters arrives nearly a month later. Given its holiday setting and the talent involved, this should end up right around fellow Rogen drug-induced comedy Pineapple Express, especially if the film ends up being as good as the red-band trailer.
- Opening Weekend: $28 million
- Projected Gross Range: $55 million - $125 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $80 million
Secret In Their Eyes (November 20 – STX Entertainment)
Newcomer distributor STX Entertainment had a surprise hit on their hands with August’s The Gift, grossing $43.7 million on a $5 million budget. It remains to be seen whether Secret In Their Eyes will follow suit, but the film has several factors that suggest it may continue the upward trend.
Based on the 2009 Spanish language film of the same name, Secret In Their Eyes features a hugely talented cast (Julia Roberts, Chiewetel Ejiofor, and Nicole Kidman) and an exciting premise and hook: a vigilante murder mystery spanning nearly thirteen years. Films dealing with a bystander seeking vengeance after a family member’s murder have a mixed track record at the box office. While Law Abiding Citizen proved to be successful ($73.3 million), Death Sentence flopped ($9.5 million).
Secret In Their Eyes does face some competition in late November from dramas such as Creed and Victor Frankenstein, but it should fare well among adult audiences seeking a thriller. This should end up right around director Billy Ray’s previous effort Breach ($33.2 million) and fellow star-studded crime drama State of Play ($37.0 million).
- Opening Weekend: $13 million
- Projected Gross Range: $25 million - $50 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $40 million
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 (November 20 – Lionsgate)
Since the first film’s debut in 2012, The Hunger Games has become one of the most popular franchises in the world and put Lionsgate on the map as a major player among the big six studios. After Catching Fire improved upon the first installment in both the domestic and international markets, many predicted that its sequel, Mockingjay – Part 1, would continue the franchise’s momentum and possibly even join the billion-dollar club. However, the film grossed a somewhat disappointing $337.1 million, or roughly 80% of its predecessor’s $424.6 million.
While this figure cast some doubt about the popularity of the franchise, the lower gross can be largely chalked up to the decision to split the film in half, which likely turned off many audience members. In addition, because those that read the book series were aware that the battle against the Capital and President Snow takes place in the second half of the novel, many moviegoers likely decided to save their money and wait for the final chapter.
Trailers for the film have done a good job at articulating that this is in fact the end of the Hunger Games series and will feature the climactic battle fans have been waiting for, a strategy that worked extremely well for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2. Deathly Hallows – Part 2 improved upon its predecessor by 28%. A 28% improvement over Mockingjay – Part 1 would put the final film on track for $431.5 million. This figure may be a little high, but given the lack of strong competition for action/adventure audiences until Star Wars arrives on December 18th, it should be able to return to the $400 million club the first two installments belong to.
- Opening Weekend: $140 million
- Projected Gross Range: $330 - $450 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $415 million
The Good Dinosaur (November 25 – Disney)
Since Toy Story was released in 1995, Pixar has been consistently delivering high quality films that have performed incredibly well at the box office. This is the first time in the history of the studio that it has released two films in the same year, and it seems very likely that the momentum created by Inside Out will carry The Good Dinosaur to similar box office heights.
The premise of what the world would look like if dinosaurs still existed is undeniably intriguing, and the visuals look like some of Pixar’s best. Also, if anyone out there doubted the popularity of dinosaurs in cinema, they would have to look no further than the year’s highest grossing film of the year (so far), Jurassic World.
It also doesn’t hurt that the film is being released on the same weekend as Frozen two years ago, and has family audiences entirely to itself until Star Wars arrives four weeks later. While Frozen’s gross might be out of reach, a figure close to that of Inside Out seems doable.
- Opening Weekend (5-day): $90 million
- Projected Gross Range: $250 million - $400 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $320 million
Creed (November 25 – Warner Bros.)
In an era where this industry is dominated by films based on existing properties, Creed is one of the more bizarre spinoff ideas in recent memory. However, the product that came out of said idea actually looks appealing. Michael B. Jordan, playing the son of Apollo Creed, is very convincing as a boxer trying to fight his way to the top. The trailers have been well received and it helps that Jordan has seen his profile rise significantly in recent years thanks to Fruitvale Station and That Awkward Moment.
It’s also an interesting (and refreshing) choice to have Sylvester Stallone, reprising arguably the most popular role of his career, take a backseat in the trailers to Jordan. This may be because the filmmakers want to make it clear that the film is predominantly about Jordan’s character, and they may also have realized that Stallone’s drawing power has waned significantly in recent years.
Though a Thanksgiving release date seems like a good spot for this type of film, Creed faces a tough battle for family audiences against The Good Dinosaur. In addition, outside of the early Rocky installments, boxing films tend to have a low ceiling at the box office. However, if the film turns out to be good, it could end up having strong legs and perform in line with this summer’s Southpaw.
- Opening Weekend (5-day): $18 million
- Projected Gross Range: $35 million - $70 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $50 million
Victor Frankenstein (November 25 – Fox)
Victor Frankenstein marks the second Frankenstein film in as many years, and the second in 2015 to feature the classic character (the first being Hotel Transylvania 2). While this “reimagining” of the classic story looks infinitely more appealing than I, Frankenstein, it does not look to fare a whole lot better at the box office.
Stars James McAvoy and Daniel Radcliffe have both been a part of hugely successful films (X-Men: Days of Future Past, Harry Potter series, respectively), but neither have proven to have enough drawing power to open a film based on their presence alone.
Victor Frankenstein was originally supposed to be released on October 16, 2014, and has been shuffled around on the calendar a total of three times. A film being shelved for a period of time and a studio’s indecisiveness around its release date typically does not bode well for the quality of the final product, though there are plenty of exceptions (Cabin In The Woods). Look for this to surpass I, Frankenstein’s final gross ($19.0 million), but not by a terribly significant margin.
- Opening Weekend (5-day): $10 million
- Projected Gross Range: $15 million - $30 million
- Estimated Final Gross: $22 million
Studio Prediction for November:
Despite November being one of the more popular movie going months of the year, the number of major releases this month is relatively small. Paramount and Universal have opted out of any wide releases this month and are apparently saving their larger films for December. This month will likely come down to a photo finish between Sony and Lionsgate. While The Night Before exceeding expectations may put Sony on top, I’m going to give the edge to Lionsgate, due to the anticipation surrounding the finale of The Hunger Games series.