A month ago, the idea that The Visit, a low budget found footage horror movie from M. Night Shyamalan would generate a higher opening weekend than star-studded Black Mass would have seemed absurd. However, The Visit defied expectations in September, as did A Walk In The Woods. On the not so successful end of September, runaway hit War Room could not generate enough momentum to boost the grosses of fellow faith-based films 90 Minutes in Heaven or Captive.

Looking ahead into October, we are starting to see some awards hopefuls (Bridge of Spies, Our Brand Is Crisis), as well as some potential blockbusters (The Martian, The Walk). Last October set a new record with total grosses of $755 million, propelled by the success of Gone Girl, Annabelle, and Fury. While this month may not break that record, it should get awfully close.

The Martian (October 2nd - 20th Century Fox)

the-martian-movie-matt-damon
Image via 20th Century Fox

The Martian sees Ridley Scott and Matt Damon in what is surprisingly their first collaboration. Scott’s last two films, The Counselor and Exodus: Gods and Kings both flopped at the box office and were met with poor critical reception. Like Scott, Damon has a mixed track record. While it’s hard to contest his status as a movie star, outside of the Bourne franchise, his solo outings have had mixed results (Elysium, We Bought A Zoo, The Informant!).

Fortunately for both Damon and Scott, this looks to be one of the more appealing offerings from either person in a number of years. The book is extremely popular and the film has so far received rave reviews (currently a 97% on Rotten Tomatoes). Gravity and Interstellar have proven that audiences are very much on board for outer-space themed films. Additionally, it doesn’t hurt that Damon gets strong support from the likes of Kristen Wiig, Kate Mara, and Chiewetel Ejiofor.

Speaking of being in need of a hit, Fox has had a rough year with Paper Towns, Poltergeist, and Fantastic Four underperforming. This should help turn things around. A performance along the lines of Interstellar seems within reach, and it may even challenge Gravity’s current October opening weekend record of $55.7 million.

  • Opening Weekend: $55 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $140 million - $250 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $185 million

The Walk (October 9th – Sony Pictures)

the-walk-charlotte-le-bon-joseph-gordon-levitt
Image via Sony

Director Robert Zemeckis, best known for Forrest Gump and the Back to the Future series, spent the better part of the 2000s experimenting with 3D motion capture animation in Beowulf, The Polar Express, and The Christmas Carol, all of which met with middling box office returns. However, his name still carries a lot of weight, and he made a big comeback into live-action films with 2012’s Flight, which met with critical and commercial acclaim. The Walk seems poised to continue this comeback.

The Walk is based on the remarkable true story of Philippe Petit, who in 1974 walked on a high wire eight times between the two towers of the World Trade Center, and the book, To Reach The Clouds, written by Petit about the event. The story is also likely still in the heads of many film fans after Man on Wire, the documentary based on the event, took home the Oscar for Best Documentary Feature in 2008.

Predictably, star Joseph Gordon-Levitt appears to have fully immersed himself in the role of Philippe Petit, complete with his French accent. The trailers have portrayed The Walk as a thriller/heist film, which makes sense given the popularity of the genre, which includes recent hits such as Argo, Now You See Me, and Inception, which also featured Gordon-Levitt. Also working in its favor is that the trailer, in particular the last fifteen seconds, is truly jaw dropping.

TriStar and Sony have decided to have an IMAX-only release the week before, a strategy that worked very well for Universal with Everest in September. While it would be unrealistic for the film to reach anywhere near the heights of the behemoth that was Inception, The Walk seems poised to do solid business, especially if the opening IMAX screenings are well received. Fellow true story heist film The Monuments Men’s $78.0 gross seems like a good target, though this one may end up higher.

  • Opening Weekend: $20 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $50 million - $120 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $82 million

Pan (October 9th – Warner Bros.)

pan-movie-image-5
Image via Warner Bros.

It’s tough to say whether Warner Bros. made the right decision in removing Pan from its originally scheduled release date of July 24th. While it avoided getting lost in the July shuffle, it is now scheduled to open in an extremely crowded October and a week before Goosebumps, which will likely be stealing family audiences, especially with Halloween on the horizon.

Joe Wright (Atonement, Anna Karenina) is known for directing visually striking films, and Pan looks to fit well into this body of work, despite being targeted at a younger demographic. The trailers show off some striking visuals, but overall there really isn’t much about Pan that demands that it be seen in a theater.

The film is also somewhat lacking in star power. Of the principal actors, Hugh Jackman likely has the most draw, but he is far from invincible when outside his Wolverine outfit, as evidenced by last March’s Chappie. The last adaptation of the property was 2003’s Peter Pan, which grossed a disappointing $48.4 million. Adjusted for inflation, this figure comes out to roughly $67.5 million, which Pan should at least be matching.

  • Opening Weekend: $24 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $45 million - $95 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $70 million

Crimson Peak (October 16th – Universal)

crimson-peak-mia-wasikowska-image
Image via Universal Pictures

Crimson Peak appears to have all of the staples of a Guillermo del Toro film: gorgeous set design and cinematography, creepy atmosphere, and a talented cast (Tim Hiddleston, Mia Wasikowska, and Jessica Chastain). The trailers have done a good job at selling the premise and avoiding cheap jump scares in favor of some genuinely frightening moments and imagery. They have also highlighted a favorable review from Stephen King, which should help bring in some horror fans that are on the fence about seeing the film.

R-rated period horror films have had a mixed track record and generally prove to be a tough sell. While The Conjuring and Sleepy Hollow were hits, The Wolfman and From Hell significantly underperformed. Crimson Peak also faces tough competition for horror fans the following week from Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension. However, given the October release date and Del Toro’s rabid fan base, this should get close to last year’s Annabelle, especially if the film ends up being as good as its trailers.

  • Opening Weekend: $27 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $50 million - $115 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $73 million

Bridge of Spies (October 16th – Buena Vista)

bridge-of-spies-tom-hanks
Image via DreamWorks/Fox2000

Very few directors carry any sort of name recognition among general audiences, but no director can command an audience’s attention the way Steven Spielberg can. Bridge of Spies sees Spielberg’s first collaboration with Tom Hanks since 2004’s The Terminal. As if there were not enough A-listers already involved, the film is also written by Joel and Ethan Cohen, and co-stars Oscar nominees Amy Ryan and Alan Alda.

The trailer sets up the premise nicely and makes it clear that the film revolves around a controversial true event during the Cold War. While some casual moviegoers may not consider the Cold War to be an inherently exciting setting for a film, the trailer combats this well by showing Hanks’s character being hunted, courtroom scenes, and gunfire.

Recent Cold War thrillers, such as Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy, Thirteen Days, and The Man From U.N.C.L.E, have all failed to gross above $45 million. However, none of those films featured Steven Spielberg and Tom Hanks, who are still two of the biggest names in entertainment, and their past successes (Saving Private Ryan, Catch Me If You Can) make it seem unwise to bet against them. While it would be unrealistic to expect this to reach the box office heights of Lincoln, this should at least be exceeding the gross of Spielberg’s War Horse ($79.8 million)

  • Opening Weekend: $25 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $70 million - $140 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $98 million

Goosebumps (October 16th – Sony)

goosebumps-lee-minnette-rush-black
Image via Sony Pictures

Given that this series has sold over 350 million copies worldwide, it’s surprising that it took this property twenty-three years to get to the big screen. This may be in part because making a family-friendly horror film is not particularly easy. However, judging from the trailers, it appears that Sony has struck the right tone and found a good balance between being family oriented and scary enough to bring in teens.

Star Jack Black has had a rough track record of late. Gulliver’s Travels, The Big Year, Year One, and this year’s The D Train all ventured into flop territory. However, he is still a big name in the comedy genre, which Sony is clearly banking on as they have been putting his name at the top of posters and at the forefront of TV spots and trailers.

Given the October release date and the popularity of the books, this should end being a nice hit for Sony. It may be hurt if Pan ends up striking a chord with family audiences, but this should at least be matching fellow young-adult book adaptation Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief ($88.7 million).

  • Opening Weekend: $30 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $60 million - $125 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $95 million

Steve Jobs (October 23rd – Universal)

steve-jobs-movie-michael-fassbender
Image via Universal

Gone Girl was my favorite movie of last year, so it would be easy to be disappointed, at least initially, that negotiations fell through for David Fincher to direct Steve Jobs, which would have re-teamed him with screenwriter Aaron Sorkin. Oscar winner Danny Boyle is a good enough substitute, though, and reviews out of the Toronto International Film Festival indicate that the film lives up to the hype. There is already Oscar talk for star Michael Fassbender, and it doesn’t hurt that the rest of the cast includes Seth Rogen, Kate Winslet, and Jeff Daniels.

August’s Straight Outta Compton set a new box office benchmark for biopics, which is currently sitting at $158.9 million. Given the unconventional approach being taken to the film (set exclusively during three product launches) and the tough competition for adults, it seems highly unlikely that Steve Jobs will come close to that.

2010’s The Social Network was also written by Sorkin, was released in October, and dealt with one of the most influential entrepreneurs over the last couple of decades. The Social Network opened with $22.4 million and ended its run with $96.9 million. If the positive reviews continue and word-of-mouth builds after its limited release on October 9th, Steve Jobs could end up improving upon this figure.

  • Opening Weekend: $27 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $70 million - $130 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $110 million

Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension (October 23rd – Paramount)

paranormal-activity-the-ghost-dimension-image
Image via USA Today

It’s been three years since we saw an installment in the Paranormal Activity franchise (not counting The Marked Ones) after one had been released each October since 2009. Micro-budget producer Jason Blum has gone on record saying that this is the last Paranormal Activity (we’ll see), after Paranormal Activity 4 signaled that the franchise was running out of gas when it became the lowest-grossing installment by a wide margin, while still making a huge profit for Paramount.

The trailer is surprisingly scary and seems to pick up right around where the fourth entry left off. Fellow horror franchise closer Saw 3D grossed $45.7 million, representing a 60.4% increase over its predecessor. If The Ghost Dimension were to follow suit, it would gross $86.4 million. Given the popularity of the franchise and the release date, this seems within the realm of possibility, though it may be hurt by competition from Crimson Peak.

  • Opening Weekend: $38 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $50 million - $100 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $85 million

Jem and the Holograms (October 23rd – Universal)

jem-and-the-holograms-movie-image-7
Image via Universal

I confess that until I saw the trailer for this film, I had no prior knowledge of the property or that it is based on a hugely popular 1980s animated television series. Its popularity became immediately apparent with the outcry over the trailer and the many changes that the property’s loyal fans were unhappy with.

Negative reactions to a trailer do not necessarily spell box office doom. Producer Jason Blum and actress Stefanie Scott have both openly urged fans to wait to see the final product before they judge it and that the film does not deviate from the material as much as the trailer may indicate. It also doesn’t hurt that said trailers have been advertising that Jem is made by the same studio that brought us Pitch Perfect and its sequel, which enjoyed a great deal of success earlier this year.

Blum will apparently be competing with himself this weekend (though admittedly it’s hard to imagine this film overlapping demographics with The Ghost Dimension). Jem may face tough competition for family audiences from Goosebumps should that film over-perform, but given the established fan base, this should still turn out a nice profit for Universal.

  • Opening Weekend: $15 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $20 million - $60 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $38 million

Burnt (October 23rd – The Weinstein Company)

burnt-bradley-cooper
Image via The Weinstein Company

Despite the poor performance and reception of Aloha, Bradley Cooper is still one of the most popular actors on the planet, thanks in large part to last year’s award-winning film American Sniper. Judging from the trailers, Cooper seems to be as charismatic and gripping as ever, as a chef who lost his restaurant due to erratic behavior and is trying to make a comeback. It also helps that Cooper is being supported by several actors who have seen their stardom rise as of late, such as Omar Sy (Jurassic World), Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina), and, speaking of American Sniper, Sienna Miller.

One factor that may hold back Burnt’s performance is its competition. October 23rd has become one of the most crowded release dates in recent memory, especially given that it marks the nationwide expansion of Steve Jobs and that it is also the second weekends for Bridge of Spies and Crimson Peak. What all of this boils down to is that there will be lots of competition for adults, and Burnt may struggle to stand out. Still, given Cooper’s presence, the strong supporting cast, and the solid trailers, this should get to somewhere around Chef’s gross.

  • Opening Weekend: $12 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $15 million - $45 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $30 million

The Last Witch Hunter (October 23rd – Lionsgate)

the-last-witch-hunter-vin-diesel
Image via Lionsgate

After the remarkable performance of Furious 7, it seems hard to argue against Vin Diesel’s stardom. However, the only non-sequel Diesel has made in the last eight years (not counting Guardians of the Galaxy) is Babylon A.D. was a massive flop, grossing just $22.5 million on a $70 million budget. The Last Witch Hunter in many ways will serve as a test of Diesel’s drawing power outside of the Fast and Furious franchise.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem likely for many Fast and Furious fans will turn out for this one. While it does feature some impressive visuals, the trailers for the most part present an extremely vague plot, consisting of a world in which Diesel’s character fights witches in a “dream world”. The trailers also lack any distinctive villain for Diesel to face off against, which seems like a necessity in a film like this.

The Last Witch Hunter in many ways seems reminiscent of last year’s Dracula Untold, given the action-horror elements and the release date. Dracula ended up with $56.2 million, but did so largely on the established brand of the titular character. Given the tough competition this weekend and the fact that those seeking thrills will likely check out The Ghost Dimension or Crimson Peak, The Last Witch Hunter will probably fall short of Dracula’s gross.

  • Opening Weekend: $16 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $20 million - $60 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $40 million

Rock The Kasbah (October 23rd – Open Road Films)

rock-the-kasbah-bill-murray-zooey-deschanel-bruce-willis

During this extremely busy weekend, Rock The Kasbah wins the distinction of being the most unique and totally bizarre-looking wide release. The film features a star-studded cast (Bill Murray, Kate Hudson, Bruce Willis, Zooey Deschanel) and revolves around an aging music manager who through a twist of fate enters his latest client into the Afghani version of American Idol.

A film like this could serve as counter-programming, though it does face direct competition for audiences interested in politics from Bridge of Spies and Our Brand Is Crisis. Given the impressive cast and talented director (Barry Levinson), the film may actually turn out to be quite good, which could lead to some strong legs. However, it seems unlikely that it will get past The Men Who Stare At Goats, a 2009 political comedy that also took place in the Middle East and had a star-studded cast.

  • Opening Weekend: $7 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $15 million - $50 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $28 million

Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse (October 30th – Paramount)

scouts-guide-zombie-apocalypse
Image via Paramount

It might seem hard to believe, but during the late 90s and early 2000s, zombies were largely absent from cinema. It wasn’t until the remake of Dawn of the Dead, 28 Days Later, and Shaun of the Dead that they started to make a comeback. Unfortunately, in the last couples of years the genre has died down a bit, and Scouts Guide does not look like the film to rejuvenate it.

The trailer makes Scouts Guide look like an overly violent B-level version of Zombieland. That film, also released in October, featured Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Harrelson, and Emma Stone, and went on to gross $75.5 million. Nothing against the talents of Tye Sheridan or Halston Sage, but it’s pretty difficult to compete with that lineup.

Plus, as mentioned above, there is much competition for horror fans this October, and Scouts Guide seems doomed to get lost in the shuffle. Look for this to end around the gross of 28 Weeks Later ($28.6 million), if not lower.

  • Opening Weekend: $8 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $10 million - $30 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $22 million

Our Brand Is Crisis (October 30th – Warner Bros.)

our-brand-is-crisis-sandra-bullock-billy-bob-thornton
Image via Warner Bros.

Our Brand Is Crisis is based on 2002 Bolivian presidential election and the 2005 documentary of the same name. Sandra Bullock is as popular a star as ever after her Oscar for The Blind Side and the hugely successful The Heat and Gravity. She also has some strong support from Billy Bob Thornton and Anthony Mackie, whose profile has risen significantly thanks to his presence in the Marcel Cinematic Universe.

Many comparisons have been drawn between Our Brand Is Crisis and Best Picture winning Argo, due in part to the shared political angles, similar release date, and having the same producers and distributor. However, Argo was marketed largely as a heist film, and while the trailer is well crafted and has its exciting moments, Our Brand is Crisis seems to lack the same compelling hook. Another major difference is that while Argo received near universal acclaim from critics, Our Brand Is Crisis has been receiving less than stellar (currently sitting at a 29% on Rotten Tomatoes). Bullock’s presence should be enough to boost this to a decent opening weekend, but if audience reception mirrors the RT score, this could disappear from theaters quickly.

  • Opening Weekend: $18 million
  • Projected Gross Range: $30 million - $90 million
  • Estimated Final Gross: $45 million

Studio Prediction for October

This is an incredibly tough month to predict because there are three studios, Fox, Universal, and Sony, that stand a good chance at coming out on top. Given the buzz surrounding Steve Jobs and Crimson Peak, the latter of which carries the added appeal of being a horror film in October, I’m going to give the edge to Universal (which has already had a record-breaking year). However, it wouldn’t be at all surprising if The Martian, The Walk, or Goosebumps over-perform, which would result in an upset by Fox or Sony.