Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania is shrinking at the box office after tepid reviews. The film is eyeing the biggest second-weekend drop in the nearly 15-year history of the otherwise resilient Marvel Cinematic Universe, as the week’s big new release — Cocaine Bear — overperforms alongside the faith-based fellow newcomer Jesus Revolution.
Universal’s action-comedy Cocaine Bear is exceeding expectations with a number one finish on Friday. The film grossed $8.6 million on its first day of release (including $2 million from Thursday previews), and is projected to finish the weekend with $21 million, more than $5 million ahead of projections. This is a return to form of sorts for director Elizabeth Banks, whose last film was the ill-fated Charlie’s Angels reboot.
Starring Keri Russell, O’Shea Jackson Jr. and Alden Ehrenreich, Cocaine Bear is riding on a wave of viral publicity and mostly solid reviews. It also continues Universal’s admirable streak of betting on original films such as Nope, M3GAN, Violent Night and Knock at the Cabin. Cocaine Bear received a so-so B- CinemaScore, which would be low for any other film, but is actually a solid result for a genre picture.
Staring at a second weekend drop in the 70% and 72% range, Ant-Man 3 is expected to generate between $30 million and $32 million in its sophomore weekend, after an $8.3 million Friday. This takes its running domestic total to over $143 million. The film opened to a solid $105 million in its traditional three-day debut — a record for the Ant-Man series — which expanded to $120 million over the four-day President’s Day frame. But if projections hold, Ant-Man 3 is at risk of delivering the worst second-weekend drop of any movie to open with more than $100 million, and one of the steepest second-weekend drops of any movie of this size.
We’re in Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice territory here, but even that notorious film avoided a 70%-plus drop in its second weekend with 69%. As far as the Marvel Cinematic Universe is concerned, last year’s Thor: Love and Thunder fell by over 67.7% in its second weekend, while Black Widow dropped by 67.8% in weekend two, although it was affected by a day-and-date debut on the Disney+ streaming service for a Premium Access Fee. Ang Lee’s Hulk infamously dropped by 69.7% in its second weekend. This could be concerning for Marvel, because Ant-Man 3 was the franchise's grand entry-point to Phase Five.
Lionsgate’s faith-based Jesus Revolution is looking a super $14 million opening weekend, which will be good enough for a third-place finish. The film was originally expected to debut in the single-digits going into the weekend. Among the holdovers, Avatar: The Way of Water added $1.1 million on its 11th Friday, taking its running domestic total to $661 million. It will soon overtake another James Cameron blockbuster, Titanic, on the domestic chart, after surpassing it globally last weekend. The top five was rounded out by Warner Bros’ Magic Mike’s Last Dance, which grossed $905,000 on its third Friday, taking its running domestic total to over $21 million.
The positively reviewed Creed III is expected to top the box office next week, as debutant director Michael B. Jordan hopes for his threequel to continue the Rocky spinoff series’ successful streak at the box office. You can watch our interview with Cocaine Bear's director, Banks here, and stay tuned to Collider for more updates.