It was another fantastic year for television, and the 2014 Emmy nominations mostly captured that (...more or less). But when it comes to winners, the Emmys can be a wily beast, as seen in last year's bevy of baffling wins (Jeff Daniels for Newsroom, Bobby Cannavale for Boardwalk Empire, among others).  Expect the expected with the Emmys, usually -- unless they go completely off the wall.This year, I have requested the expertise of Collider's own Adam Chitwood to assist me with picks, not only because he closely follows the awards circuit year-round, he also has a much better track record than I do for picking awards winners in general.  Hit the jump for our guesses about how the results will play out and why in our 2014 Emmy predictions.  The 66th Primetime Emmy Awards, hosted by Seth Meyers, will air live on NBC Monday, August 25th at 8pm ET/5pm PT.

Drama Series

• 

  Breaking Bad
• Downton Abbey
• Game of Thrones
• House of Cards
• Mad Men
• True Detective

Allison’s Picks

Should Win: True Detective

Will Win: True Detective

Dark Horse: Breaking Bad

It's hard to imagine Breaking Bad as a dark horse, but True Detective's inaugural season was such an unexpected gem in every arena (acting, writing, directing -- heck, even T. Bone Burnett's soundtrack), that its impact will be impossible for Emmy voters to ignore (and they love a new contender).  If this was any other season of Breaking Bad than the final one, though, I'd say True Detective was a lock.  Though Breaking Bad’s excellent final run could easily win, ultimately, HBO owns the voting cards, and it's almost a sure bet they play them here.

Adam’s Picks 

Should Win: True Detective

Will Win: True Detective

Dark Horse: Breaking Bad 

First off, thanks to Allison for asking me to join in on the Emmy fun.  Second, I have no idea what I’m doing re: predicting TV awards, so let’s get started! This here’s a two-way race between True Detective and Breaking Bad, and boy is it a hell of a Sophie’s Choice.  If you take the entirety of Breaking Bad’s final season I think it might run away with the lead here, but the fact that AMC split it into two halves slightly hinders its impact.  True Detective, on the other hand, was just a phenomenal piece of storytelling from beginning to end that came out of nowhere.  The buzz has died down a tad, and I could certainly see Breaking Bad pulling out the win, but I think True Detective takes this one home by a hair.

Lead Actress in a Drama

• 

  Lizzy Caplan – Masters of Sex
• Claire Danes – Homeland
• Michelle Dockery – Downton Abbey
• Julianna Margulies – The Good Wife
• Kerry Washington – Scandal
• Robin Wright – House of Cards

Allison’s Picks

Should Win: Julianna Marguiles

Will Win: Lizzy Caplan

Dark Horse: Kerry Washington

Last year's Emmy awards showed a preference for new faces (something the Emmys don't usually have much of), which is why I'm giving the edge to Lizzy Caplan for her fearless portrayal in Masters of Sex's first season.  On the flip side, perennial nominee and former winner Julianna Margulies, and her show The Good Wife, had an exceptional season, and Margulies could be rewarded for it after a few years away from the podium.  Kerry Washington is most certainly also in the mix, and a win would definitely not be an upset.

Adam’s Picks 

Should Win: Robin Wright

Will Win: Kerry Washington

Dark Horse: Lizzy Caplan 

The heat of Homeland’s first season is long gone by now, and even though the Emmys do like to stick to their old favorites, I have feeling Danes will be giving up this category this year.  Robin Wright was absolutely the MVP of House of Cards’ second season, but critical reaction to season two was a tad more mixed overall.  Lizzy Caplan has been generating some serious buzz, but I’m not sure enough Academy members have seen Masters of Sex for her to win.  Which leads me to think that Kerry Washington might take this trophy home for Scandal’s breakout season. 

Lead Actor in a Drama

• 

  Bryan Cranston – Breaking Bad
• Jeff Daniels – The Newsroom
• Jon Hamm – Mad Men
• Woody Harrelson – True Detective
• Matthew McConaughey – True Detective
• Kevin Spacey – House of Cards 

Allison’s Picks

Should Win: Matthew McConaughey

Will Win: Mathew McConaughey

Dark Horse: Bryan Cranston

Once again, I have Breaking Bad and True Detective squaring off.  It's also, again, almost inconceivable to think of Bryan Cranston as a dark horse.  But the McConaissance is strong, and this could still be his year, keeping his awards run going.  On the other hand, Emmy voters could be looking to reward Cranston for his many years of exceptional performances.  Tough call.  This category last year had one of the biggest surprises taking home the prize, but it was also an actor (like McConaughey) who was not a regular on the list.

Adam’s Picks 

Should Win: Matthew McConaughey

Will Win: Matthew McConaughey

Dark Horse: Bryan Cranston 

Talk about a stacked category.  I’ve resigned myself to the fact that the Academy will never reward Jon Hamm for his impeccable work on Mad Men, and in some ways Woody Harrelson’s work on True Detective was more integral to its overall success than McConaughey’s, but the latter got the more showy role--and boy did McConaughey make it sing.  It’s a shame that Cranston’s final season of Breaking Bad happened to coincide with both True Detective and the McConnaisance, but somewhat surprisingly the McConaughey backlash has yet to come.  His work on True Detective was transcendent, and I have a feeling Emmy voters won’t give up the chance to get him on the stage.  Or they could continue their WTF streak and give it to Jeff Daniels again, in which case all hell might genuinely break loose (and this is coming from someone who actually likes The Newsroom). 

Supporting Actress in a Drama

• 

  Christine Baranski – The Good Wife
• Joanne Froggatt – Downton Abbey
• Anna Gunn – Breaking Bad
• Lena Headey – Game of Thrones
• Christina Hendricks – Mad Men
• Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey 

Allison’s Picks

Should Win: Anna Gunn

Will Win: Christine Baranski

Dark Horse: Maggie Smith

My hunch is that if The Good Wife is not recognized elsewhere in the acting categories, Christine Baranski could get a win here.  It's definitely deserved, but again, it's a strong category that, frankly, could go in many different directions.  Anna Gunn was excellent in Breaking Bad's final season, and of course Maggie Smith is always a favorite.  Dame Maggie had a little more to her role in this season of Downton, and that could make the difference, as she is a recurring Emmy favorite.

Adam’s Picks 

Should Win: Anna Gunn

Will Win: Anna Gunn

Dark Horse: Maggie Smith 

Gunn submitted the best episode in Breaking Bad’s entire run, “Ozymandias”, for consideration, in which she turns in a phenomenal performance.  The Emmys do love them some Maggie Smith, but I’d be surprised if Gunn doesn’t win a very deserved second trophy for her stellar work in the concluding episodes of Breaking Bad.

Supporting Actor in a Drama

• 

  Jim Carter – Downton Abbey
• Josh Charles – The Good Wife
• Peter Dinklage – Game of Thrones
• Mandy Patinkin – Homeland
• Aaron Paul – Breaking Bad
• Jon Voight – Ray Donovan 

Allison’s Picks

Should Win: Aaron Paul

Will Win: Aaron Paul

Dark Horse: Jon Voight

This stacked category is a tough call every year, and is probably the biggest toss-up.  Aaron Paul was absolutely incredible in Breaking Bad, though, and (like every year) deserves the win (bitch!).  But Jon Voight's magnetic presence in Ray Donovan could be an upset, since he was a big part of what made that show's first season such a great watch, and (as I mention elsewhere), Emmy voters like rewarding older actors where they can.

Adam’s Picks 

Should Win: Peter Dinklage

Will Win: Josh Charles

Dark Horse: Aaron Paul 

This is a tough category.  Dinklage did some of his best work to date in this season of Game of Thrones, Josh Charles had a buzzy sendoff in the underrated The Good Wife, and Aaron Paul was spectacular as always, but played a more minor role in these last few episodes of Breaking Bad.  Any one of the three could (and should) win, but I’m predicting a slight upset with Charles taking the trophy. 

Writing for a Drama Series

• 

  Breaking Bad, “Felina” – Vince Gilligan
• Breaking Bad, “Ozymandas” – Moira Walley-Beckett
• Game of Thrones, “The Children” – David Benioff & D.B. Weiss
• House of Cards, “Chapter 14” – Beau Willimon
• True Detective, “The Secret Fate of All Life” – Nic Pizzolatto

Allison’s Picks

Should Win: “Ozymandias”

Will Win: “Felina”

Dark Horse: “The Secret Fate of All Life”

Though the recent Nic Pizzolatto-focused backlash (and the backlash to the backlash) might have lessened his new star-power somewhat, it's unlikely to have affected Emmy voters.  Instead, their loyalties will likely be divided between two Breaking Bad episodes.  "Ozymandias" is not only one of the best hours of Breaking Bad, it's one of the best on TV of all time.  But Emmy voters don't necessarily think that way.  They will want to reward Vince Gilligan individually, which, if that doesn't come in the directing category, is likely to come here.

Adam’s Picks 

Should Win: “Ozymandias”

Will Win: “Ozymandias”

Dark Horse: “The Secret Fate of All Life”

Another category in which it really comes down to Breaking Bad vs. True Detective.  The dual nods for Breaking Bad could work against the series, with some voting for the strongest episode “Ozymandias” and others wanting to reward showrunner Vince Gilligan for the solid series finale.  The True Detective finale was fantastic but wasn’t the show’s strongest episode and Pizzolatto has been in a bit of hot water as of late, so I’m giving the slight edge to Breaking Bad and hoping the Academy chooses wisely with the masterpiece “Ozymandias.” 

Directing for a Drama Series

• 

  Boardwalk Empire, “Farewell Daddy Blues” – Tim Van Patten
• Breaking Bad, “Felina” – Vince Gilligan
• Downton Abbey, “Episode One” – David Evans
• Game of Thrones, “The Watchers on the Wall” – Neil Marshall
• House of Cards, “Chapter 14” – Carl Franklin
• True Detective, “Who Goes There” – Cary Joji Fukunaga

Allison’s Picks

Should Win: “Who Goes There”

Will Win: “Felina”

Dark Horse: “The Watchers on the Wall”

Cary Joji Fukunaga was arguably the element that made True Detective so incredibly distinct.  Under his direction, the bayous came alive, the sky sparkled, and McConaughey's facial shadows have never been deeper.  But his most notable contribution was the much-discussed six-minute, uncut, nightmarish tracking sequence at the end of "Who Goes There" that should have sealed the deal on his win.  However, Vince Gilligan could pull out a win for "Felina," especially if Gilligan doesn't get a win in another category (why Rian Johnson wasn't nominated for "Ozymandias" is another of the great Emmy mysteries -- he would have been a shoo-in).

Adam’s Picks 

Should Win: “Who Goes There”

Will Win: “Who Goes There”

Dark Horse: “The Watchers on the Wall” 

Somewhat surprisingly, Breaking Bad has never won this category.  Though the Academy could feel like rewarding Gilligan simply for crafting one of the best shows in history, this category tends to veer towards more showy winners (Fincher for House of Cards, Scorsese for Boardwalk Empire), so I’m thinking Fukunaga rightfully takes the win for his phenomenal work on True Detective.  The directing on the show was as equally important as the writing and performances, and it helps that “Who Goes There” is the episode that ended with Fukunaga’s insane long take.

Continue Reading on Page 2 for the Comedy, Miniseries, and TV Movie Categories 

Comedy Series

• 

  The Big Bang Theory
• Louie
• Modern Family
• Orange Is the New Black
• Silicon Valley
• Veep 

Allison’s Picks

Should Win: Orange Is the New Black

Will Win: Orange Is the New Black

Dark Horse: Silicon Valley

Orange Is The New Black's nomination is actually in reference to its first season, because of the oddity of the Emmy calendar.  Jenji Kohan's show came out of nowhere, with no expectations, and immediately became part of the cultural zeitgeist (as well as another marquee hit for Netflix).  Mike Judge's Silicon Valley had a similar breakthrough role on HBO, which hasn't had a really stellar comedy that is strictly a comedy (unlike Girls or Looking, which are more drama) in many years.  It will come down to HBO and Netflix vying against each other in number of Emmy voters, which could put Silicon out front in an upset.  Toss up, but the money is on Orange is the New Black.

Adam’s Picks

Should Win: Veep

Will Win: Orange Is the New Black

Dark Horse: Veep

The buzz for Orange Is the New Black was impossible to ignore once the show premiered last summer, and when it returned for a second season this year (which will be eligible in next year’s Emmys), the quality and word-of-mouth was still just as strong.  It’s bold storytelling to be sure, and while I personally think Veep hit a fantastic comedy stride and was the funnier of the two, I won’t argue with an Orange win—which I expect is going to happen.

Lead Actress in a Comedy

• 

  Lena Dunham – Girls
• Edie Falco – Nurse Jackie
• Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep
• Melissa McCarthy – Mike & Molly
• Amy Poehler – Parks and Recreation
• Taylor Schilling – Orange Is the New Black 

Allison’s Picks

Should Win: Taylor Schilling

Will Win: Taylor Schilling

Dark Horse: Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Among Orange Is The New Black's stellar ensemble, it was the journey of Taylor Shilling's Piper that tied things together and anchored the many disparate stories.  Whether you love or hate Piper, though, Shilling's portrayal was a singular performance that deserves recognition (which she will likely receive).  But again, Netflix here is battling the might of HBO's power voting Emmy bloc, which could give Julia Louis-Dreyfus another doorstopper (she's always incredible on Veep).

Adam’s Picks

Should Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Dark Horse: Taylor Schilling

Veep absolutely shined this season, and Julia Louis-Dreyfus’ submission episode “Crate” featured one of the funniest scenes of the year.  I’ll be surprised if she doesn’t take home this trophy for the second year in a row, but if not, look for Taylor Schilling to enjoy what could be an Orange Is the New Black landslide. 

Lead Actor in a Comedy

• 

  Louis C.K. – Louie
• Don Cheadle – House of Lies
• Ricky Gervais – Derek
• Matt LeBlanc – Episodes
• William H. Macy – Shameless
• Jim Parsons – The Big Bang Theory

Allison’s Picks

Should Win: Don Cheadle

Will Win: Don Cheadle

Dark Horse: Jim Parsons

I'll be honest, I've never seen House of Lies.  But every year, there is a handful of people who do say it's outstanding, and that Don Cheadle is incredible, so I'm going to go out on a limb here and say this is going to be Cheadle's year to take home the tin.  But if Emmy voters are feeling traditional, they'll go with Parsons (and the smart money might go there).

Adam’s Picks

Should Win: Louis C.K.

Will Win: Jim Parsons

Dark Horse: Don Cheadle

What a weird category.  Few of these performances are actually straight comedy, which makes it tough to suss out who is the best “comedy” actor. Louis C.K. was stellar, as always, on Louie, but this season was the show’s weirdest yet and may have been offputting for some voters. When in doubt, though, think “traditional” for Emmys, which is why I have a feeling Jim Parsons will win his fourth Emmy trophy this year.

Supporting Actress in a Comedy

• 

  Mayim Bialik – The Big Bang Theory
• Julie Bowen – Modern Family
• Anna Chlumsky – Veep
• Allison Janney – Mom
• Kate McKinnon – Saturday Night Live
• Kate Mulgrew – Orange Is the New Black

Allison’s Picks

Should Win: Kate Mulgrew

Will Win: Allison Janney

Though it was Season Two of Orange Is The New Black where Kate Mulgrew really made her mark, "Red" was still an integral part of what made Season One a standout.  But it is Allison Janney who has garnered the most attention for her role in Mom (of all unexpected series).  Emmy voters are fond of rewarding actors and actresses who may have a few grey streaks (to put it delicately).  It will be between Mulgrew and Janney, with Janney pulling out the win.

Adam’s Picks

Should Win: Anna Chlumsky

Will Win: Allison Janney

Dark Horse: Kate Mulgrew

Anna Chlumsky is fantastic on Veep, and she certainly had a great year as she vied for the campaign manager job in classic Veep fashion.  However, Allison Janney has been generating a lot of heat in this category.  I have not seen a single episode of Mom, but I’m told Janney is swell on the show with her fair share of emotional moments as well as comedic turns.  As a massive West Wing fan, this does not surprise me.  If Janney does win, this will be her second trophy this year as she also won for her guest role on Masters of Sex.  If Orange Is the New Black starts to steamroll though, look for Big Red to possibly play the spoiler.

Supporting Actor in a Comedy

• 

  Fred Armisen – Portlandia
• Andre Braugher – Brooklyn Nine-Nine
• Ty Burrell – Modern Family
• Adam Driver – Girls
• Jesse Tyler Ferguson – Modern Family
• Tony Hale – Veep 

Allison’s Picks

Should Win: Tony Hale

Will Win: Tony Hale

Dark Horse: Adam Driver

Tony Hale has had an outstanding run on Veep, and is long overdue for recognition (this, like many of my picks though, could just be wishful thinking).  If not, though, I think it will be Adam Driver -- whose star is on the rise, and who single-handedly makes Girls a better show -- sneaking in with a win, if Emmy voters are feeling edgy.  (They often aren't, though).

Adam’s Picks

Should Win: Andre Braugher

Will Win: Tony Hale

Dark Horse: Adam Driver

The bathroom scene during the episode “Crate” on Veep should be enough in an of itself for Tony Hale to win this year, and that’s before you factor in his win from last year.  I’m a massive Adam Driver fan but his work on Girls much more dark and dramatic than comedic, so I’m not sure he pulls enough votes to win.  That said, his star is on the rise so it’s possible a larger block of Emmy voters has been exposed to his talent.  But it’s Andre Braugher on Brooklyn Nine-Nine who was the biggest surprise of the year.  His deadpan delivery absolutely slayed me time and time again, and I wish the show would’ve gotten more Emmy attention overall. 

Writing for a Comedy

• 

  Episodes, “Episode Five” – David Crane & Jeffrey Klarik
• Louie, “So Did the Fat Lady” – Louis C.K.
• Orange Is the New Black, “I Wasn’t Ready” – Liz Friedman & Jenji Kohan
• Silicon Valley, “Optimal Tip-to-Tip Efficiency” – Alec Berg
• Veep, “Special Relationship” – Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, & Tony Roche

Allison’s Picks

Should Win: “Optimal Tip-to-Tip Efficiency”

Will Win: “Optimal Tip-to-Tip Efficiency”

Dark Horse: “So Did the Fat Lady”

Silicon Valley's first season finale, "Optimal Tip-to-Tip Efficiency," is surely the longest dick joke ever nominated for an Emmy (as well it should be).  But that was not the only great thing about Alec Berg's script, which played to the strengths of all of the show's lead actors, and was above all, riotously funny.  With the voting power of HBO behind him, Berg should easily secure a win.  There is a potential for an upset, though, for Louie's "So Did the Fat Lady," which was a good (though not the greatest) episode of an engrossing season.

Adam’s Picks

Should Win: “Optimal Tip-to-Tip Efficiency”

Will Win: “I Wasn’t Ready”

Dark Horse: “So Did the Fat Lady”

For crafting the most elaborate (and possibly best) dick joke ever told, I’d give this trophy to Silicon Valley in a heartbeat.  Alas, I’m not sure that’s enough to convince the Television Academy.  Though Veep had a tremendous season, “Special Relationship” was one of its weakest episodes, so I’m predicting that on a big night for Orange Is the New Black, the pilot episode takes this one home.  Keep an eye out for Louis C.K. to possibly pull off an upset, though.

Directing for a Comedy

• 

  Episodes, “Episode Nine” – Iain B. MacDonald
• Glee, “100” – Paris Barclay
• Louie, “Elevator, Part 6” – Louis C.K.
• Modern Family, “Las Vegas” – Gail Mancuso
• Orange Is the New Black, “Lesbian Request Denied” – Jodie Foster
• Silicon Valley, “Minimum Viable Product” – Mike Judge

Allison’s Picks

Should Win: “Elevator, Part 6”

Will Win: Accept no substitutes

In Louie's most surreal and beautifully filmed season yet, creator and star Louis C.K. himself really shone this year in directing.  His sensibilities, especially regarding his "Elevator" series, were quirky and filmic.  Louis C.K. probably won't win for acting, or writing (the submitted episode was not the season's strongest), so this seems like the category most likely for Emmy voters to feel hip and edgy by rewarding such an unusual talent.

Adam’s Picks

Should Win: “Lesbian Request Denied”

Will Win: “Lesbian Request Denied”

Dark Horse: “Las Vegas”

It’s unwise to count out Modern Family here because it’s won this award the past three times running, but the streak has to come to an end sometime.  Louis C.K. did wonders to depict a hurricane in New York City on a shoestring budget in “Elevator, Part 6”, but I think the topical nature of “Lesbian Request Denied”, the popularity of Orange as a whole, and the starpower of Jodie Foster will carry that one to the win here.  And deservedly so, as Foster handled the flashback of transgendered inmate Sophia with care and poignancy.

Miniseries

• 

  American Horror Story: Coven
• Bonnie & Clyde
• Fargo
• Luther
• Treme
• The White Queen 

Allison’s Picks

Should Win: Treme

Will Win: Fargo

Dark Horse: It’s going to be Fargo

Fargo essentially has this in a lock.  In a just world, Treme's production from top to bottom would sweep everything, but Treme itself is about the world being really unjust.  So Fargo it will be.  (FX shows usually don't make a play at the Emmy because they don't have as much voting power, which is another reason why I think FX will do everything to promote Fargo and get some awards where they can and while they can -- even though many other series, like Louie, The Americans and Justified, might be more deserving elsewhere).

Adam’s Picks 

Should Win: Fargo

Will Win: Fargo

Dark Horse: Really? 

Even thought I didn’t really care for Fargo as much as almost everyone else, I can appreciate its value.  I’ll admit the only other nominee I’ve seen here is American Horror Story: Coven, but the buzz on Fargo was almost universal, so I don’t see how it loses this one. 

TV Movie

• 

  Killing Kennedy
• Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight
• The Normal Heart
• Sherlock: “His Last Vow”
• The Trip to Bountiful

Allison’s Picks

Should Win: The Trip to Bountiful

Will Win: The Normal Heart

Dark Horse: Sherlock: “His Last Vow”

Many nominees exploited the Emmy's weird rules about categories this year, like Sherlock coming in under TV Movie, True Detective being called a series, and Treme being dubbed a miniseries (it was one episode short of the minimum required for “series” consideration).  In any case, Lifetime's The Trip to Bountiful is what TV movies were originally made for and about, and this particular telling -- changing up the formula of the original by featuring an all-black cast -- was a really great one.  But, it's most likely going to be HBO's Normal Heart which triumphs, because of HBO's Emmy power (and that TV movie's star power).  PBS could make a decent push for Sherlock, the other of its marquee shows, which could potentially lead to an upset.

Adam’s Picks

Should Win: Sherlock

Will Win: The Normal Heart

Dark Horse: Sherlock

Though it’s an original series, Sherlock qualifies as a TV movie due to its 90-minute episode format.  “His Last Vow” was undoubtedly the best episode of the season, but I don’t imagine anything will beat Ryan Murphy’s adaptation of the heartwrenching play The Normal Heart.  Yes, Murphy’s direction nearly kills any subtlety that might have carried over from Larry Kramer’s screenplay, but this is a sensitive issue that’s anchored by strong performances all around.

Emmy Predictions