Friday Box Office: Holdovers Still in Charge as TERMINATOR GENISYS and MAGIC MIKE XXL Stumble into Holiday Frame

     July 4, 2015


Another Friday, another close race between holdovers Inside Out and Jurassic World. The Pixar hit took top honors at yesterday’s box office with an estimated $12.5 million. Jurassic World’s estimate came in at $11.8 million on Friday. But while the last two frames have seen JW climb over IO to claim first place, this weekend seems to favor Pixar. At this point, Inside Out is expected to earn $30 million to Jurassic World’s $29 million. That’s statistically too close to call – and lord knows that box office tracking isn’t perfect. Still, after three weeks of dinosaur domination, Inside Out’s moment may have finally arrived.

magic-mike-xxl-final-posterTwo new releases are also in the mix this holiday weekend: Terminator Genisys and Magic Mike XXL. As in 2014 (when the fourth of July fell on a Friday), both pics debuted nationwide on Wednesday. Opening day belonged to Magic Mike, which took first place with $9.3 million (including $2.4 million from Tuesday previews). That was a promising start, especially during mid-week. But there were signs that the sequel’s magic might not hold. Women accounted for 96% of Magic Mike’s opening box office – a greater single-sex percentage than Fifty Shades of Grey or Sex and the City 2.

I’m not about to downplay the box office power of women, but a movie needs to appeal beyond a single demographic if it hopes to have staying power. As it was, Magic Mike XXL was down 38.5% on Thursday and earned an estimated $6.3 million from 3,355 locations yesterday. That puts the film’s projection at around $15 million for this weekend or a total of $30 million in its first five days. Considering that Magic Mike collected $39.1 million in its debut in the summer of 2012, that’s somewhat discouraging. Then again, XXL was budgeted at just $15 million so, for Warner Bros., much of the work is already done.

That is not the case for Paramount’s July Fourth contender, Terminator Genisys. The fifth installment in the Terminator canon cost a reported $155 million, so it has a lot farther to go before it turns a profit. Genisys came in second on Wednesday with $8.9 million but held better (-27%) than Magic Mike XXL on its second day in theatres. On Friday, Genisys remained in third place with an estimated $10.6 million from 3,758 locations. That puts the film’s weekend projection at $27 million with an expected five-day take of $42 million. Back in May 2009, the last entry in the franchise, Terminator Salvation, earned over $42 million in its opening weekend – and without Arnold Schwarzenegger in the lead.

Check back tomorrow for complete details on the July Fourth box office. Until then, here’s Friday’s top five films based on studio estimates:

 Title Friday Total
1.  Inside Out $12,510,000 $228.5
2.  Jurassic World $11,800,000 $539
3.  Terminator Genisys $10,680,000 $26.1
4.  Magic Mike XXL $6,300,000 $21.3
5.  Ted 2 $4,400,000 $51.7


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