Universal’s release of Illumination’s Minions: The Rise of Gru is looking at record-breaking box office numbers over the Fourth of July weekend. The animated prequel to the hit Despicable Me spinoff series is expected to make $129.2 million over the extended four-day weekend, and $109 million across three days, after an opening day gross of $48 million including $10.75 million from Thursday previews.
By comparison, the first Minions movie made $115 million in its three-day opening, which Rise of Gru could better once the dust settles on the weekend. The film has already outperformed fellow Fourth of July releases such as Transformers: Dark of the Moon ($115 million in 2011), Spider-Man 2 ($115 million in 2004), and Despicable Me 3 ($99 million in 2017).
Rise of Gru is decimating projections; going into the weekend, the film was expected to open between $65 million and $75 million. In fact, this is the biggest opening for an animated feature since 2019’s Frozen 2, which suggests that audiences for children’s films are finally confident about returning to theaters following encouraging performances by Sing 2, Sonic the Hedgehog 2, and The Bad Guys.
The Despicable Me franchise has set a high bar, with two out of four previously released films having crossed the $1 billion mark worldwide. Rise of Gru is looking at a global opening of around $202 million, which should send it well on its way to attaining similar success.
Top Gun: Maverick isn't done yet, despite zooming past numerous records to hit $1 billion at the global box office last month. With an expected $34 million across the extended weekend ($26 million in three days after a measly 9% drop), the film’s running domestic total will stand at a staggering $572 million by Monday. The euphoric Maverick is an obvious choice for the holiday weekend, and a domestic finish of over $600 million looks totally possible as it prepares to land on the Paramount+ streaming app.
Director Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis biopic is expected to take the number three spot this weekend, with $5.3 million on its second Friday, for an estimated $20 million across three days and a possible $25 million across the extended weekend. By Monday, the film’s running domestic total will stand at $70 million, a healthy enough number for an adult-skewing drama of formidable length. Warner Bros. should be pleased that older audiences came out to experience the film on the big screen, after largely sitting out the last two years.
Universal's Jurassic World Dominion is expected to take the fourth spot, pushing its running domestic total to $336 million after falling 39% from the last weekend. And a third Universal film will close out the top five. Blumhouse's horror offering The Black Phone is expected to add $11.9 million across its second weekend, registering a relatively low (for a horror film) 50% drop. This will take director Scott Derrickson's well-reviewed film to over $50 million domestically.
The runway is now clear for the release of Disney-Marvel’s Thor: Love and Thunder next week. The film is opening early in a handful of international territories, so stay tuned to Collider for more updates.