Determining Netflix's capricious method in which they go about canceling and renewing its television shows has fallen under quite a bit of scrutiny over the last several months. With seemingly popular, hit shows like 1899, Warrior Nun, The Midnight Club, and First Kill getting cancelled after just one season with open-ended storylines, we wanted to take a look at how the streaming behemoth is deciding on what makes the cut and what doesn't and if there is a legitimate data-backed reason for it. Ted Sarandos, the man behind making such decisions at Netflix has been quoted as saying that it's "70% gut and 30% intuition," stating that a lot of it is "informed hunches and intuition" with the data either reinforcing or supporting what you want to do. Seems a little bit arbitrary, but we're not the ones handing out the big jobs at the company, we're just relating what the people have to say about why some of your favorite shows are getting cut right when they appear to be establishing their footing and trending in popularity. So is there a data metric that the streamer adheres to when making these types of calls, and if so, what is it?

A Little Known, Controversial Metric Is Used

Henry Cavill as Geralt of Rivia holding his sword and looking at something off-camera in the Witcher
Image via Netflix

The reason why we weren't taken on another journey with the doomed international group of passengers and crew aboard the trans-Atlantic vessel, Kerberos, in 1899 and several other compelling storylines is because of a little-known metric that Netflix uses known as the "completion rate". Despite what die-hard fans might think of a show, or just what showrunners Jantje Friese and Baran bo Odar had in store for the unscrupulous human trafficking Virginia (Rosalie Craig) in a potential Season 2 of 1899, it turns out that if a certain percentage of viewers start watching a show, but fail to complete it, it doesn't bode well for being renewed for a second lap. It's an interesting method for sure and whether it's efficient remains to be seen. After all, Friese and Odor had a complete three-season timeline mapped out for the show already. So imagine their disappointment in hearing about the "completion metric." There has also been some scuttlebutt around the industry about how Netflix has under-marketed its lesser-known, newer shows in favor of bell cows like Stranger Things, Ozark, and The Witcher.

Related: '1899's Surprise Cancellation Throws Even More Shade at Netflix's Viewership Metrics

Is It Working?

Jenna Ortega in Wednesday (2022)
Image via Netfix

Whether Sarandos and the rest of the brass are making the right calls on the premature cancelations of popular new shows remains to be seen. One thing is for certain, these shows would have had a hefty number of viewers tuning in to see more episodes had they been given the opportunity. When you consider that 1899 was the second most-watched English-speaking show after its release only to be topped by Jenna Ortega's mega-hit, Wednesday later in November 2022, it may appear that the numbers don't make a lot of sense. The streaming service has taken quite a bit of flak in the last few months over leaving hundreds of thousands of fans of these upstart shows to hold a giant bag full of nothing after investing their time into watching and completing, the entire first seasons of these well-acted and well-written shows. Whether this particular metric is good for the overall health of Netflix will take time to evaluate. After all, we'll never know if these shows had continued to perform well given a second season. But you can make the argument that we should have been allowed to find out.

Show Creators Know the Score, Too

David Tennant and Michael Sheen in Good Omens eating an ice cream and popsicle while looking up at something.
Image via Amazon

It's not like the people behind these shows are completely unaware of Netflix's daunting "completion rate" metric that could ultimately decide whether their show gets picked up for a second series or even beyond that, 2022's Netflix original The Sandman did quite well for the streamer, but the show's writer and creator, Neil Gaiman, wasn't going to take any chances. The acclaimed creator of such hits as American Gods, Coraline, and Good Omens took to Twitter urging fans of the show to finish it sooner rather than later if they wanted to see what becomes of the Lord Morpheus/the Dream King (Tom Sturridge) and his efforts to maintain equilibrium within the dream realm in a second season. He is keenly aware that despite how many eyeballs are on his work, all that matters is how many sets of peepers see the show through to the conclusion of the final episode as the determining factor whether he gets re-upped with Netflix.