And so the time is here. Nominations for the 89th annual Academy Awards will be announced bright and early tomorrow morning, and while I’ve been covering this year’s awards race since September, we’ve come to the moment of truth. Below, I’ve offered my predictions for the nominees in (almost) all of the categories. There are a number of different ways to tackle this—statistics, precedent, etc., but it’ll mostly come down to blind luck. I’ve used every piece of information I can glean to predict what I think will land on the Academy’s shortlist, but as always there will not doubt be a curveball or two. Keeps things interesting!
Check out my predictions below and check back tomorrow for a commentary piece on the nominees. The 89th Oscars will be held on February 26th and broadcast live on ABC, hosted by Jimmy Kimmel.
Best Visual Effects
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Arrival
Doctor Strange
Kubo and the Two Strings
Wild Cards: Deepwater Horizon, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, The BFG
This category’s nominees can often come down to the quality of the highlight reels that were shown at the VFX bake-off, where the shortlisted contenders make their case for a nomination. The Jungle Book’s stunning effects are in, and I think Rogue One’s mix of practical and visual effects make it a strong contender as well. Where I’m venturing a bit from the fray here is Kubo and the Two Strings, which combined stop-motion animation and visual effects seamlessly to create a wondrous viewing experience. If I’m wrong, look for the deceptively effects-heavy Deepwater Horizon or maybe Fantastic Beasts to make the cut instead.
Best Film Editing
La La Land – Tom Cross
Moonlight – Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders
Manchester by the Sea – Jennifer Lame
Hacksaw Ridge – John Gilbert
Arrival – Joe Walker
Wild Cards: Lion (Alexandre de Franceschi), Hell or High Water (Jake Roberts), Nocturnal Animals (Joan Sobel)
Best Editing has a way of matching up with the biggest Best Picture contenders, so this year’s formidable trio—La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea—are probably in. Beyond that, the editors’ branch loves to recognize action editing that has purpose and is emotionally driven, and Hacksaw Ridge certainly fits that bill. And with Arrival’s effectiveness hinging on the use of flashbacks to create an emotional response, I think the sci-fi pic will be duly recognized here as well. Although last year Star Wars: The Force Awakens secured a nod, so perhaps Rogue One lands a nomination here. We’ll surely find out.
Best Original Score
La La Land – Justin Hurwitz
Lion – Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka
Moonlight – Nicholas Britell
The BFG – John Williams
Jackie – Mica Levi
Wild Cards: Nocturnal Animals (Abel Korzeniowski), Hidden Figures (Pharrell and Benjmain Walfisch), Kubo and the Two Strings (Dario Marianelli)
John Williams is nominated almost every time he composes a new original score (see: The Book Thief, Memoirs of a Geisha, Angela’s Ashes), so if you think just because The BFG bombed that he’s not in, think again. This branch loves The Master. But beyond that, we’ve got really strong contenders in La La Land, Moonlight, and Lion, while Jackie remains a somewhat controversial pick. Mica Levi’s tremendous work on Under the Skin failed to land a nomination, and while some think the same will happen here, I’m hoping (foolishly, probably) that she gets her due recognition. If not, Nocturnal Animals, Hidden Figures, and Kubo and the Two Strings are all serious possibilities.
Best Original Song
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” – La La Land
“City of Stars” – La La Land
“How Far I’ll Go” – Moana
“Runnin” – Hidden Figures
“Can’t Stop the Feeling” – Trolls
Wild Cards: “Drive It Like You Stole It” (Sing Street), “Faith” (Sing), “We Know the Way” (Moana)
As I’ve written before, this is one of the most exciting categories of the year. Both La La Land songs will get in, but it’s a genuinely tough race with Moana and Hidden Figures in there. And while I’m not predicting it, if Sing Street lands a nomination I will be absolutely thrilled.
Best Cinematography
Linus Sandgren – La La Land
Bradford Young – Arrival
Greig Fraser – Lion
James Laxton – Moonlight
Rodrigo Prieto – Silence
Wild Cards: Seamus McGarvey (Nocturnal Animals), Robert Richardson (Live by Night), Stephane Fontaine (Jackie)
What an embarrassment of riches. La La Land is the frontrunner here, and deservedly so, and Bradford Young looks to be the category’s first-ever African-American nominee for his stellar work on Arrival. And bolstered by ASC nominations, I think Greig Fraser and Rodrigo Prieto deservedly get in. If you’re looking for a spoiler I think it might be Seamus McGarvey for his sharply composed work on Nocturnal Animals, and while Jackie was at one time a shoo-in for a lot of nominations, the film has cooled significantly over the last month.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Moonlight – Barry Jenkins, Tarell McCraney
Arrival – Eric Heisserer
Lion – Luke Davies
Nocturnal Animals – Tom Ford
Fences – August Wilson
Wild Cards: Hidden Figures (Theodore Melfi, Alison Schroeder), Silence (Jay Cocks, Martin Scorsese), Deadpool (Rhett Reese, Paul Wernick)
This is one of the year’s more competitive categories, but we can probably count on Moonlight and Arrival at least for landing nominations. Lion is also a solid bet given its feel-good nature, but I’m also predicting more love in the Academy for Nocturnal Animals, so I think it has a shot—especially with that WGA nod in its pocket. It’s hard to see them not nominating the late August Wilson for his impeccable Fences, but I also think we could see a genuine wild card thrown into the mix in the form of Deadpool. The question is, could voters really find it in themselves to nominate Deadpool over something as deep and refined as Silence or Moonlight? We’ll find out, but I actually think this is the category where Deadpool has the best shot of being nominated.
Best Original Screenplay
La La Land – Damien Chazelle
Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan
Hell or High Water – Taylor Sheridan
The Lobster – Efthymis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos
Zootopia - Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Phil Johnson, Jennifer Lee, Rich Moore, Jim Reardon, Josie Trinidad
Wild Cards: Captain Fantastic (Matt Ross), 20th Century Women (Mike Mills), Toni Erdmann (Maren Ade)
This one’s a bit tough. Captain Fantastic could certainly land a nod if it has enough support, but Disney/Pixar also has a solid track record in the category. The writers branch is usually where you’ll find support for small critical darlings, so I think The Lobster gets in and Hell or High Water is a strong contender, even for a win. I’d feel more confident about 20th Century Women’s chances if the film had found more guild support, but it was snubbed by WGA which doesn’t inspire confidence. I would’ve said Loving had a shot here, but for dumb reasons the Academy decided it qualified for Adapted instead of Original, which is a much tougher category.
Best Documentary Feature
O.J.: Made in America
Cameraperson
Weiner
13th
I Am Not Your Negro
Wild Cards: The Eagle Huntress, Fire at Sea, Life, Animated
This category has a tendency to get it wrong, so don’t be surprised if there’s a shocking omission of something like 13th or Weiner.
Best Animated Feature
Zootopia
Moana
Kubo and the Two Strings
The Red Turtle
My Life as a Zucchini
Disney and LAIKA look to dominate this category, but Finding Dory doesn’t seem as robust a contender as these others. The animation branch is fond of throwing one or two foreign films into this category, so despite their commercial successes, I wouldn’t count on films like Sing or Trolls getting in. And no, Sausage Party is unlikely to nab a nomination.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
Dev Patel – Lion
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
Aaron Taylor-Johnson – Nocturnal Animals
Wild Cards: Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins), Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures), Ben Foster (Hell or High Water)
That shocking Golden Globes win for Aaron Taylor-Johnson isn’t what clinched him as a Best Supporting Actor nominee for me, it was the BAFTA recognition. Although, yes, a Golden Globe win almost guarantees an Oscar nomination statistics-wise. But yeah, I’m thinking Nocturnal Animals—a film shunned by critics groups—will find greater support within the Academy, which will extend to this particular acting category. As for the rest, they’ve been the main players for some time now, but I could also see a bit of a shakeup with Kevin Costner thrown into the mix.
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis – Fences
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
Naomie Harris – Moonlight
Nicole Kidman – Lion
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Wild Cards: Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures), Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women)
The supporting categories are traditionally where you see left-field surprises, but the Best Supporting Actress category is, once again, thin on contenders. That’s not to say there aren’t terrific supporting actress performances this year, it’s just hard to find more than 6 or 7 given the dearth of these kinds of parts. Viola Davis is a lock for Fences and probably the safest best to win on Oscar night, and I’d also consider Michelle Williams and Naomie Harris locks. Nicole Kidman is probably in, but it’s that last slot where things could get interesting. Octavia Spencer landed the Supporting Actress nod from SAG for Hidden Fences, but if the film is a really big hit with the Academy, we could see Janelle Monae get nominated as well. I had Greta Gerwig on the shortlist here for a while, but unfortunately 20th Century Women has failed to get much traction in this year’s awards race.
Best Actor
Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
Denzel Washington – Fences
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
Wild Cards: Andrew Garfield (Silence), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals)
This is actually one of the categories where I could foresee some big surprise. Perhaps Jake Gyllenhaal for Nocturnal Animals, if the Academy turns out to like the film as much as BAFTA. Or maybe Andrew Garfield rightfully gets nominated for Silence—his better performance—over Hacksaw Ridge. I’m playing it a bit safe and going with the above choices, with Viggo Mortensen having gotten a major boost from the SAG noms, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see a bit of a shakeup outside the shoo-ins of Casey Affleck and Denzel Washington.
Best Actress
Emma Stone – La La Land
Natalie Portman – Jackie
Amy Adams – Arrival
Isabelle Huppert – Elle
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
Wild Cards: Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Ruth Negga (Loving), Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train)
Barring some major snub, Stone, Portman, and Adams are in. I’m also pretty confident on Isabelle Huppert, although it’s possible all of that buzz is coming from critics and she could be left out in the cold by the actors branch (depends on how many actually bothered to see Elle). That last slot is tricky though. For a while I had Ruth Negga, but unfortunately Loving has lost significant traction over the last month or so. Annette Bening seemed like an easy in, but for whatever reason the guilds have mostly passed over 20th Century Women. It could be that the acting branch of the Academy likes the film much more, but that SAG snub is hard to ignore. So I’m going with Meryl Streep who’s gotten a visibility boost thanks to her terrific Golden Globes speech. Does that speech have anything to do with her performance in Florence Foster Jenkins? Definitely not, but there’s no litmus test for Academy members that measures why they’re voting for their choices.
Best Director
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve – Arrival
Martin Scorsese – Silence
Wild Cards: Garth Davis (Lion), David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water), Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)
This category is tough this year. As with Best Picture, there are three certainties—Damien Chazelle, Barry Jenkins, and Kenneth Lonergan. The DGA went with these three plus Denis Villeneuve and Garth Davis, but the DGA rarely matches up exactly with the Oscar category. For the past few years, there’s been one DGA nominee who doesn’t make it to Oscar and I’m guessing that’s Lion’s Garth Davis—who was actually my pick for a surprise Oscar nomination. I’m going a bit outside the box here and guessing Martin Scorsese squeezes in for Silence, but I could absolutely be wrong as that film has not found much success on the awards circuit and I don’t have it landing any other major Oscar nominations. If you’re looking for a surprise nomination, this category could have it.
Best Picture
La La Land
Moonlight
Manchester by the Sea
Arrival
Lion
Hidden Figures
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Fences
Wild Cards: Silence, Nocturnal Animals, Deadpool
I’m putting nine nominees here, but honestly I could see this being a smaller year with only seven or eight nominees. The guarantees are La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea, but beyond that it comes down to which films can nab the number of #1 votes needed to secure a slot. There’s passion for films like Hell or High Water and Fences, but is there enough? I’m guessing so, while also guessing that Martin Scorsese’s passion project Silence will suffer from a too-late release date (this one needed time to ruminate and build a passionate base). If there’s a true wild card to be had it could be Nocturnal Animals or Deadpool, with the latter having secured nominations from the PGA, DGA, and WGA. Stranger things have happened…