Oscar Nominations Predictions 2020: Who Gets In?

At long last, it’s time to predict the Oscar nominations. Well not exactly at long last. In truth, this Oscar season has been one of the shortest in history. The Golden Globes were last Sunday, and yet the Oscars ceremony takes place in less than a month. That shortened window has added a sense of urgency to the mix as contenders vie for the spotlight on an abbreviated timeline.

Perhaps that’s why we haven’t seen too much in the way of negative campaigning or shocking falls from major contenders. There simply isn’t time, and everyone’s focused on making the best case for their individual film and performances. Which has made for an interesting race in a number of categories.

Below I offer my Oscar nominations predictions in quite a few categories, but not all. This year, unfortunately, I haven’t been able to devote the time necessary to confidently assess, say, Best Sound Editing, so I’ve left a few of those off. Regardless, I’ve included my assessment of the major categories in addition to predictions below. And check back on Monday for my analysis of the actual Oscar nominations.

Of note: The predicted nominees in each category are listed in order of likelihood to be nominated.

Best Picture

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The Irishman

1917

Parasite

Marriage Story

Joker

Jojo Rabbit

Little Women

Knives Out

Ford v Ferrari

Major Threats: The Two Popes, Bombshell, The Farewell

I wrote pretty extensively about my Best Picture predictions earlier this week, but I’m confident the first 7 of these films are pretty much a lock to get nominated. While past years have given us 9 nominees, some think the shortened schedule means fewer films were actually watched, which could result in only 7 or 8 nominees.

Beyond the “locks,” I’m hopeful that Little Women gets in. Despite a rough start getting nearly shut out by SAG and the Globes, the film earned a PGA nomination and has been gaining momentum. I’m also fairly confident Knives Out has a very good shot at a nomination. It earned a PGA nomination and has been recognized by various guilds along the way. Good for Rian Johnson. And finally there’s Ford v Ferrari, a true crowdpleaser and classically made film for adults. It’s got a decent shot with a PGA nod in hand.

If it’s not any of those, Netflix’s The Two Popes could mount a comeback (though its lack of PGA nomination has me dubious), Bombshell could make good on those SAG nominations, and The Farewell could sneak in as this year’s beloved indie.

Best Director

1917-set-photo-sam-mendes — Image via Universal

Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Martin Scorsese – The Irishman

Sam Mendes – 1917

Bong Joon-ho – Parasite

Greta Gerwig – Little Women

Major Threats: Todd Phillips (Joker), Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story), Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)

Boy this is a tough category this year. The first four nominees seem like near-locks, so it’s that fifth slot where Greta Gerwig, Todd Philips, Noah Baumbach, and Taika Waititi are duking it out—or possibly even someone like Fernando Meirelles or Pedro Almodovar. The Director’s branch of the Academy often likes to recognize an outside-the-box choice here like Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild or last year with Pawel Pawlikowski for Cold War.

So what does all of this mean? Boy, I don’t know. I’m going with my optimistic gut here and saying the branch will do the right thing and recognize Gerwig for her tremendous filmmaking feat that is Little Women, but I could just as easily see Phillips, Baumbach, or even Waititi making it. Waititi took the fifth slot with the DGA Awards, but the DGA nominees rarely match up five for five. So yeah. Gerwig. Final answer. I think…

Best Actor

Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Adam Driver – Marriage Story

Taron Egerton – Rocketman

Antonio Banderas – Pain & Glory

Major Threats: George MacKay (1917), Robert De Niro (The Irishman), Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems)

Another super tough category, and one in which the first three nominees are pretty safe (this is Joaquin Phoenix's to lose). Taron Egerton’s SAG nomination and Golden Globes win convinced me he’s getting a nomination here, in addition to the fact that he’s been campaigning hard. And Antonio Banderas’ soulful performance in Pain & Glory feels like a sneaky contender here, especially since Robert De Niro has been left out in the cold by most precursor awards.

The two spoilers here, in my mind, are George MacKay for 1917 and Adam Sandler for Uncut Gems. 1917 is proving to be a successful latecomer, and Best Picture winners usually get at least one acting nomination. If 1917 hits big with the Academy, look for MacKay to get in. As for Sandler, I can’t suss out whether he’s a critical favorite or actually has a shot with the Oscars. He’s got a lot of baggage, but he’s also a likable guy. It’s a toss up.

Best Actress

judy-garland-renee-zellweger — Image via LD Entertainment and Roadside Attractions

Renee Zellweger – Judy

Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story

Charlize Theron – Bombshell

Lupita Nyong’o – Us

Saoirse Ronan – Little Women

Major Threats: Awkwafina (The Farewell), Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Alfre Woodard (Clemency)

So this is Renee Zellweger’s to lose. Thanks for playing everyone.

Filling out the category, Scarlett Johansson and Charlize Theron feel pretty safe, and if the Academy can’t find it in themselves to acknowledge any of the great performances from women of color this year in this category, God help them. Lupita Nyong’o has been a critical favorite, Awkwafina a bit of an underdog who got a boost at the Globes, Cynthia Erivo is getting strong notices for Harriet, and if voters actually take the time to watch Clemency it’s highly possible Alfre Woodard gets in. But because I picked Little Women to earn Best Picture and Director nods, I’m going with Saoirse Ronan for that fifth slot.

Best Supporting Actor

the-irishman-joe-pesci-robert-deniro — Image via Netflix

Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Joe Pesci – The Irishman

Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes

Sam Rockwell – Richard Jewell

Alan Alda – Marriage Story

Major Threats: Al Pacino (The Irishman), Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse)

This is a category in which I’m going out on a limb, but the Supporting categories are usually where you find the most surprises. Brad Pitt is the frontrunner to win, so he’s safe, and Joe Pesci has a terrific comeback narrative around him that I think will pay off. But the Academy tends to nominate Sam Rockwell at every chance they get, so I’m predicting a surprise there, and Alan Alda is delightfully sincere in awards season favorite Marriage Story that I think might push him in.

As for why I don’t have Tom Hanks predicted, well, the Oscars hate Tom Hanks. I don’t know why, but the guy hasn’t been nominated since Cast Away, and that was two decades ago. If they’re not going to nominate him for Captain Phillips, I don’t necessarily foresee him getting in for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. But I’d love to be wrong. And with regards to Al Pacino, I think he deserves to get in, but I'm predicting a couple of surprises here.

Best Supporting Actress

Laura Dern – Marriage Story

Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers

Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit

Margot Robbie – Bombshell

Florence Pugh – Little Women

Major Threats: Shuzhen Zhao (The Farewell), Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell), Nicole Kidman (Bombshell)

Again here Laura Dern is the heavy favorite to win, so she’s safe. But really any mix of my predictions and the Major Threats seems possible. If the Academy doesn’t spring for Little Women, I could see Florence Pugh not making the cut in favor of someone like Shuzhen Zhao from The Farewell.

Best Original Screenplay

knives-out-daniel-craig-ana-de-armas — Image via Lionsgate

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino

Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach

Parasite – Bong Joon-ho

Knives Out – Rian Johnson

1917 – Krysty Wilson-Cairns and Sam Mendes

Major Threats: The Farewell, Booksmart, Pain & Glory

Another competitive category. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Marriage Story, and Parasite are all heavy favorites, so it’d be a shock if they don’t get in. I’m predicting 1917 to be a big Academy favorite, so I think it scores here as well. And Knives Out has a ton of support behind it, so look for that one to play a spoiler.

Best Adapted Screenplay

jojo-rabbit-scarlett-johansson-sam-rockwell — Image via Fox Searchlight

The Irishman – Steve Zaillian

Joker – Todd Phillips and Scott Silver

Jojo Rabbit – Taika Waititi

Little Women – Greta Gerwig

The Two Popes – Anthony McCarten

Major Threats: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Hustlers

This one’s an odd category this year in that it’s not super stacked with contenders, but I feel fairly confident in all of these except for The Two Popes. That film missed out on a WGA nod in favor of A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, so watch for that potential swap.