At long, long last, this year’s Oscar season is finally almost over. I will tell you as someone who’s been doing this professionally for some time now, this year feels different. The race began the same way all races begin back in September, but as we grew closer to the big day, you could feel a sea change in the way people predict the Oscars. The Moonlight upset had everyone shook, and the transformation of the Academy’s membership into one that skews younger and more diverse means hard and fast statistics may not hold up that well anymore.
So while I still did my due diligence and checked the stats, looked at the precursor awards, and got a feel for the mood during the voting period, this year I used my gut more than ever before. This could very well blow up in my face, but after going the “safe” route last year only to see my ballot get decimated, it’s time to switch things up.
Below, finally, I offer my final Oscar predictions for the 90th Academy Awards. I did my best to explain my reasoning and offer alternatives for those looking for some guidance on their ballots. And as always I included what I think should win and should have been nominated for almost all the categories.
So let’s have some fun. The Oscars will be broadcast live on Sunday, March 4th on ABC. Check back here on Monday morning for my postmortem of the ceremony. Fingers crossed.
Best Picture
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
It’s rare that when it comes time to make final Oscar predictions, Best Picture is one of the most unpredictable categories. But given what happened last year with Moonlight not only winning unexpectedly, but in the face of overwhelming Oscar stats stacked against it, all bets are off.
By my estimation there are three viable options for what could win on Sunday. The Shape of Water is the safest pick. It won the Producers Guild Award and the DGA Award, and it holds the most nominations of any film and is clearly beloved in the crafts categories. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri is the next safest pick. It scored a lot of nominations for a contemporary drama, and it won both the SAG Award for Best Ensemble and Best Picture at the BAFTAs. And then there’s Get Out, the spoiler. It’s been underestimated the entire way, but it’s a film that’s been beloved by many, and Universal Pictures has gone all out with its Phase 2 awards campaign.
Shape very well could win, and if you’re playing it safe it’s probably best to go with that. It’s also a pretty deserving winner! But the lack of even a nomination for Best Ensemble at the SAGs has me worried it doesn’t have as much support as we think. Three Billboards I imagine will suffer from the preferential ballot. There are a lot of folks who love this movie, but depending on who you ask, there are also a significant amount of people who might be putting it dead last on their ballot.
Indeed, it’s all about the preferential ballot. Get Out has a lot of folks who love it, some folks who like it, but not many that seem to hate it. When it comes to the preferential ballot, films that are “well-liked” do better than films that are divisive. The Shape of Water fits that bill, but for some reason it feels like the traditional or safe pick. I went that way last year, going so far as to say I’d eat my hat if La La Land lost. This year I don’t want to eat any hats, so I’m going out on a bit of a limb and saying Get Out takes it. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. But let’s live a little.
Will Win: Get Out
Could Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Get Out
Should Have Been Nominated: The Florida Project
Best Director
Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
Jordan Peele – Get Out
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
This one has been pretty sewn up for a while now, which is a refrain you’ll hear over these next couple of categories. Four out of the last five years Best Picture and Director have been split between two different films, and I’m predicting the same come Oscar night. With a DGA and BAFTA in hand and copious awards over the rest of the season, Guillermo del Toro should rightfully take the stage Sunday night for his stunning work on The Shape of Water, completing the trifecta of the “Three Amigos”—a trio of Mexican directors who grew up and collaborated together—winning the Best Director Oscar as he follows in the footsteps of friends Alejandro G. Iñarritu (Birdman, The Revenant) and Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity). If there’s a shocker, though, it’s ever-so-slightly possible Jordan Peele could surprise.
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro
Could Win: Christopher Nolan
Should Win: Guillermo del Toro
Should Have Been Nominated: Luca Guadagnino – Call Me by Your Name
Best Actress
Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
Meryl Streep – The Post
While the Best Actress race began as quite unpredictable, with Sally Hawkins an early serious contender for her wordless performance in Shape of Water, as the awards season wore on it became clear this was Frances McDormand’s to lose. She’s been dominating the awards circuit for the past month, taking home trophy after trophy, and while support for Hawkins or Saoirse Ronan could result in a surprise, I don’t really see it happening.
Will Win: Frances McDormand
Could Win: Sally Hawkins
Should Win: Sally Hawkins
Should Have Been Nominated: Gal Gadot - Wonder Woman
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.
The easiest race to predict of the night. Gary Oldman has steamrolled this entire thing, and he’ll easily take home his first ever Oscar on Sunday night.
Will Win: Gary Oldman
Could Win: It’s gonna be Gary
Should Win: Timothée Chalamet
Should Have Been Nominated: Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger
Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water
Much like the Best Actress race, this one was a squeaker for a while. Then Allison Janney just started winning everything, and unfortunately Laurie Metcalf’s chances grew smaller and smaller. That said, the Supporting categories are where surprises usually happen so Metcalf or even Lesley Manville could pull off an upset, but given the amount of precursor awards Janney has won it feels unlikely.
Will Win: Allison Janney
Could Win: Laurie Metcalf
Should Win: Laurie Metcalf
Should Have Been Nominated: Allison Williams – Get Out
Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Ditto to everything I said about Supporting Actress and Best Actress. It’s clear the actors went gaga for Three Billboards, and Sam Rockwell seems to be on a path to winning his first Oscar.
Will Win: Sam Rockwell
Could Win: Christopher Plummer
Should Win: Willem Dafoe
Should Have Been Nominated: Armie Hammer – Call Me by Your Name
Best Original Screenplay
The Big Sick – Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani
Get Out – Jordan Peele
Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water – Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri – Martin McDonagh
Now things get tricky. There are some who think Get Out and Lady Bird will somehow cancel each other’s votes, leading to a Three Billboards win. Others think Get Out or Lady Bird has a clear path to victory here. I think it’s very possible that Three Billboards takes this, but since I’m predicting Get Out to win Best Picture, I’m also putting my money on the film scoring in this category as well—much like Moonlight’s path to victory last year. But if you’re predicting Three Billboards to take Best Picture, you should probably mark it down here as well.
Will Win: Get Out
Could Win: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Lady Bird
Should Have Been Nominated: Phantom Thread – Paul Thomas Anderson
Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me by Your Name – James Ivory
The Disaster Artist – Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
Logan – Scott Frank, James Mangold, and Michael Green
Molly’s Game – Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound – Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
This one’s less tricky, although there is the possibility for an upset. Call Me by Your Name was really the first Oscar contender of 2017, following its debut at Sundance, and while the film’s long trek to Oscar night led to a bit of a loss of steam at the end here re: Best Director and Supporting Actor nominations, Adapted Screenplay is an easy way to recognize a film that a large swath of voters seem to enjoy. Moreover, voters love a good narrative, and 89-year-old writer James Ivory’s lengthy path to getting Call Me made is a hell of a story that would be wonderfully capped by an Oscar win.
Will Win: Call Me by Your Name
Could Win: Mudbound
Should Win: Call Me by Your Name
Should Have Been Nominated: The Lost City of Z
Best Animated Feature
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
The last time a Pixar movie was nominated for Best Animated Feature and lost was 2006 with Cars. So yeah, Coco is safe here.
Will Win: Coco
Could Win: Loving Vincent
Should Win: Coco
Should Have Been Nominated: The LEGO Batman Movie
Best Documentary Feature
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
The timeliness of the Olympics and Russia-focus of Icarus will likely vault that film to a win, as well as its availability on Netflix and the lack of Documentary frontrunners City of Ghosts and Jane on the Oscar shortlist. But there have been plenty of surprises in this category before, so a win for Faces Place or Last Men in Aleppo isn’t entirely out of the question.
Will Win: Icarus
Could Win: Faces Places
Should Win: Icarus
Should Have Been Nominated: City of Ghosts
Best Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
The Insult (Lebanon)
Loveless (Russia)
On Body and Soul (Hungary)
The Square (Sweden)
A Fantastic Woman feels like a pretty safe bet here given its visibility for such a long time and, again, the lack of previous Foreign Language frontrunners like In the Fade and Foxtrot on Oscar’s shortlist.
Will Win: A Fantastic Woman
Could Win: The Insult
Best Original Score
Dunkirk – Hans Zimmer
Phantom Thread – Jonny Greenwood
The Shape of Water – Alexandre Desplat
Star Wars: The Last Jedi – John Williams
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri – Carter Burwell
The BAFTAs have become a pretty reliable predictor for this category, so Alexandre Desplat’s win across the pond coupled with the fact that his score has been a frontrunner here for a while gives me the confidence to put The Shape of Water in the #1 position over the tempting pick of Jonny Greenwood for Phantom Thread. Of course Hans Zimmer is also in the mix for Dunkirk, but when Zimmer’s superior score for Interstellar went up against Desplat’s Grand Budapest Hotel, Desplat won. I expect he’ll be taking home his second Oscar on Sunday.
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Phantom Thread
Should Win: Phantom Thread
Should Have Been Nominated: War for the Planet of the Apes – Michael Giacchino
Best Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049 – Roger Deakins
Darkest Hour – Bruno Delbonnel
Dunkirk – Hoyte van Hoytema
Mudbound – Rachel Morrison
The Shape of Water – Dan Laustsen
After 14 career nominations and zero wins, could this finally be Roger Deakins’ year? I was dubious given how many times Deakins has lost out, but the BAFTA winner for Best Cinematography has gone on to Oscar glory every time since the BAFTA shifted its voting strategy to more closely mirror the Oscars, and Deakins’ win there gives me the confidence to finally put him in the winner’s circle. Of course the legend’s luck being what it is, it’s also not out of the realm of possibility for Dunkirk’s Hoyte van Hoytema to swoop in and keep the unfortunate trend going, but hopefully not. Deakins really might win an Oscar this year you guys.
Will Win: DEAKINS!
Could Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: DEAKINS!
Should Have Been Nominated: The Lost City of Z – Darius Khondji
Best Production Design
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
The Shape of Water has clearly been a huge hit with the craftspeople in the industry, and I expect the film will handily take home the Best Production Design prize here as it’s been a frontrunner for some time. However, if voters are feeling ambitious, as they did in 2015 with Mad Max: Fury Road, then Blade Runner 2049 could swoop in. But Shape is so lovingly crafted it feels like an easy pick here.
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Have Been Nominated: Phantom Thread
Best Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria & Abdul
The movie about designing high-end costumes will almost certainly win the Oscar for Best Costume Design. Unless voters just really truly hate Phantom Thread, or didn’t bother to see it.
Will Win: Phantom Thread
Could Win: Beauty and the Beast
Should Win: Phantom Thread
Should Have Been Nominated: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Film Editing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Here’s where I’m taking a gamble, and understand my pick here reverberates in the Sound categories as well. Dunkirk is probably the safer play for Best Film Editing, but given this category’s shakeups in past years (Whiplash, Mad Max, and Dragon Tattoo were all surprises) I had a feeling about Baby Driver that was confirmed by the movie’s BAFTA win in this category. It’s a movie that does not work without precise editing, and Edgar Wright’s team did a phenomenal job. Editing is also crucial to Dunkirk, but the Academy has thrice denied nominee Lee Smith the trophy and failed to even nominate Inception, so my gut says the Academy’s Christopher Nolan aversion may hold true once more.
Will Win: Baby Driver
Could Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Baby Driver
Should Have Been Nominated: Get Out
Best Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
My thinking here is that if Baby Driver is going to win Best Editing, support is strong enough for it to take the sound categories as well. As a refresher, Best Sound Editing honors work done to create sounds that don’t exist live on the day, while Best Sound Mixing honors work done to mix together sounds that were recorded live on set. Baby Driver is a showcase for both, and I have an inkling it’ll upset at the Oscars.
Will Win: Baby Driver
Could Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Baby Driver
Should Have Been Nominated: Call Me by Your Name
Best Sound Mixing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Of course if Baby Driver doesn’t win these two categories, they’ll likely go to Dunkirk, which is overall a safer pick. Again, I’m gambling a bit here, but I’ve got a feeling.
Will Win: Baby Driver
Could Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Baby Driver
Should Have Been Nominated: Call Me by Your Name
Best Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
The Planet of the Apes franchise has never won this category despite incredible cutting-edge technology, and for that very reason I’m expecting it to once again get passed over. War for the Planet of the Apes may seem like the obvious pick here, but Dawn lost to Interstellar and Rise lost out to Hugo, both prestige-y pictures. That’s why I’m going with Blade Runner 2049, but I do hope I’m wrong.
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Could Win: War for the Planet of the Apes
Should Win: War for the Planet of the Apes
Should Have Been Nominated: Thor: Ragnarok
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder
I mean…
Will Win: Darkest Hour
Could Win: Nothing but Darkest Hour
Should Win: Darkest Hour
Should Have Been Nominated: The Shape of Water