Even before the 94th Academy Awards have aired, this has already been a wild year for the ceremony. From deciding not to air all the awards live, to the addition of the Oscars Fan Favorite category, the Oscars are off to a weird start. But regardless of the strange changes, some great and deserving films are likely to win big on Oscar night.

Leading the pack this year with 12 nominations is Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog, which looks to be the frontrunner in the Best Picture. Coming up close behind with 10 nominations is Denis Villeneuve's Dune, and in third is Belfast and West Side Story, each with 7 nominations. While The Power of the Dog has led the competition for the last year, several recent wins for CODA has made it a real contender for The Power of the Dog's supposed crown. Could we see Campion's Western win, or could Apple TV+ have its first Best Picture winner?

Before this year's Oscars, let's take a look at this year's categories and explore who should and will win in all 23 categories.

RELATED: The 2022 Oscar-Nominated Scores, Ranked, from ‘Dune’ to ‘Encanto’

Documentary (Short Subject)

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Image via Netflix

Audible

Lead Me Home

The Queen of Basketball

Three Songs for Benazir

When We Were Bullies

Who Should Win: Lead Me Home, with its look at homelessness in the United States via heartbreaking personal accounts is an incredibly powerful short, but as the bleakest of the bunch, will probably scare away voters.

Who Will Win: This is probably a toss-up between the two sports stories, but I’d give the edge to Audible over The Queen of Basketball. Audible is gorgeously shot, and this story about the team captain of a deaf high school’s football team is just the right mixture of uplifting and eyeopening to make this a likely frontrunner.

Short Film (Live Action)

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Ala Kachuu - Take and Run

The Dress

The Long Goodbye

On My Mind

Please Hold

Who Should Win: Easily the best performance in a short film this year goes to Anna Dieduszycka for The Dress, a moving story of a woman of short stature hoping for love. But again, its bleak conclusion could outweigh the beauty at the core of the short.

Who Will Win: Looking at the last decade of winner, voters seem to lean towards a film with a powerful message, and a celebrity doesn’t hurt either. The Long Goodbye, starring Riz Ahmed, is even darker than The Dress, but Ahmed’s performance in the final half of The Long Goodbye will absolutely stick with voters.

Short Film (Animated)

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Image via Aardman Animation

Affairs of the Art

Bestia

BoxBallet

Robin Robin

The Windshield Wiper

Who Should Win: With its alluring style and collection of stories about love, The Windshield Wiper is stylistically the most unique short in competition this year, but like most of this year's nominees in this category, this story is more for an older audience, which could be the film’s detriment.

Who Will Win: Robin Robin is a delightful short from Aardman Animations that is one of their best projects in years. It’s also the only short in this category that an entire family could watch, and considering it’s been available for months on Netflix, it’s entirely possible they have. Robin Robin is a charming short in a category that is full of darker, more adult stories, and that’s probably going to help it win here.

Makeup and Hairstyling

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Coming 2 America

Cruella

Dune

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

House of Gucci

Who Should Win: Dune’s makeup runs the gamut from flashy—as with bringing Stellan Skarsgård’s Baron Harkonnen to life—to subtle demarcations that help the audience understand who these characters are before they even open their mouths. But also, someone deserves to win an Academy Award for Oscar Isaac’s absolutely stunning beard.

Who Will Win: This is not a category that favors subtlety, with flashier makeup jobs in films like Vice and Darkest Hour winning in recent years. With that in mind, The Eyes of Tammy Faye relies on flamboyant and loud makeup and hair in every scene, which helps transform Jessica Chastain in the title role. Transforming a known actor helps in this category, and that’s exactly what the makeup and hairstyling does for Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye.

Costume Design

Cruella

Cyrano

Dune

Nightmare Alley

West Side Story

Who Should and Will Win: Cruella is quite literally all about its costumes, and there are some truly remarkable creations throughout this film from 11-time nominee and two-time winner Jenny Beavan. If Cruella has any close competition, it’s from Dune’s sci-fi suits, yet Cruella seems to have had this one in the bag for months.

Production Design

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Image via Warner Bros.

Dune

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

Who Should and Will Win: Get ready to hear Dune quite a bit in the technical categories—but for good reason. While Nightmare Alley and The Tragedy of Macbeth are both impressive titles to reckon with, but Dune had to bring multiple worlds to life, including palaces and grandiose sets that make Arrakis and Caladan feel truly real. Dune might not win any major awards this year, but it’s almost certainly going to sweep up in these smaller categories.

Visual Effects

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Image via Warner Bros.

Dune

Free Guy

No Time to Die

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Spider-Man: No Way Home

Who Should and Will Win: Again, Dune seems like an easy call here simply because of how Villeneuve and his team wholly created these new worlds. And while some people might hold out home No Way Home might win its only Oscar, the MCU has never won in this category, as Visual Effects tends to go to films that can easily blend their special effects seamlessly into the narrative—which is exactly what Dune does here.

Film Editing

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Image via Warner Bros.

Don’t Look Up

Dune

King Richard

The Power of the Dog

tick, tick…BOOM!

Who Should Win and Will Win: This is an incredibly close race that is made even more difficult to predict by the fact that some voters consider “most” editing and “best” editing interchangeable (*cough* Bohemian Rhapsody *cough*). That being said, Dune was the only film nominated for the ACE, BAFTA and Critics’ Choice categories for editing, and with it looking to sweep up most of the major technical categories, Dune could score yet another win here.

Sound

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Belfast

Dune

No Time to Die

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Who Should and Will Win: In the second year of sound editing and sound mixing combined into one category, Dune is once again likely to take the win. Having won the majority of precursor sound awards, Dune is also arguably the only film in this category that you can close your eyes and hear. Go ahead. Do it. You hear that sand rustling, the ships landing in storms, the weaponry clashing against each other? Dune is arguably the most flashy in terms of sound in this category, but that doesn’t also mean it’s not the best as well.

Music (Original Song)

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“Be Alive” from King Richard (DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter)

“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (Lin-Manuel Miranda)

“Down to Joy” from Belfast (Van Morrison)

“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell)

“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (Diane Warren)

Who Should and Will Win: As mentioned in our round-up of the Original Song nominees, Billie Eilish’s “No Time to Die” has been considered the likely winner here since the song debuted two years ago. Eilish and her brother Finneas O’Connell not only match the tone of the somber James Bond film, but also beautifully incorporate the classic Bond theme into the song. Not to mention, it’s also just the best track in contention here, and the Oscars would love to see Eilish on stage at the ceremony.

Music (Original Score)

Image via Warner Bros.

Don’t Look Up - Nicholas Britell

Dune - Hans Zimmer

Encanto - Germaine Franco

Parallel Mothers - Alberto Iglesias

The Power of the Dog - Jonny Greenwood

Who Should Win: Jonny Greenwood’s score for The Power of the Dog is creaky, haunting and stunning soundtrack to Jane Campion’s captivating Western, and we previously said it’s this year’s best in the category. Greenwood has made some of the best scores in the last few decades, and it’s shocking this is only his second nomination.

Who Will Win: Hey, it’s our old friend Dune again! While The Power of the Dog is an incredible listen, Hans Zimmer’s twelfth nomination also deserves a win, as—like its probable win in the sound category—Dune comes alive through this massive score, as one can hear the sands of Arrakis and the new society that awaits simply from Zimmer’s music here. Zimmer thrives in these types of gargantuan scores, and it could lead to his second win in this category.

Cinematography

Dune - Greig Fraser

Nightmare Alley - Dan Laustsen

The Power of the Dog - Ari Wegner

The Tragedy of Macbeth - Bruno Delbonnel

West Side Story - Janusz Kaminski

Who Should and Will Win: The last time I mention Dune, I promise! This was a close race between The Power of the Dog and Dune for most of the award season, but with Greig Fraser winning at the American Society of Cinematographers and the BAFTA, it seems safe to say Dune is going to walk away with this one. Villeneuve films led to Roger Deakins earning three nominations, as well as his eventual win for Blade Runner 2049, so the director knows how to make a gorgeous film. All five nominees are visually arresting, but Dune is other-worldly.

Documentary (Feature)

Summer of Soul
Image via Searchlight Pictures

Ascension

Attica

Flee

Summer of Soul (…or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

Writing With Fire

Who Should Win and Will Win: Summer of Soul has been the favorite in this category for a while, as Questlove’s look at the 1969 Harlem Cultural Festival isn’t just the best documentary of last year, it’s one of the best films of 2021. That being said, three-time nominee Flee probably won’t win here, but of all its nominations, this would be the most likely category for Jonas Poher Rasmussen’s animated doc to break through.

Animated Feature Film

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Image Via Disney

Encanto

Flee

Luca

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Raya and the Last Dragon

Who Should Win: In a year with three Disney or Pixar films nominated, Netflix’s The Mitchells vs. the Machines shines above the other nominees with this extremely lovely story of a family road trip, a robot uprising, and lead character Katie Mitchell’s (Abbi Jacobson) desire to become a filmmaker. Produced by Lord and Miller, and directed by Mike Rianda is a truly wild ride that deserves to be recognized, even amongst its solid competition.

Who Will Win: Encanto has become a gigantic hit over the last few months, largely thanks to it’s wonderful soundtrack and the internet’s adoration for “We Don’t Talk About Bruno.” While it seems like Encanto probably won’t win in the music categories, celebrating Encanto with a win here seems the most likely way to celebrate this film. Also, Disney hasn’t won this category since 2016 with Zootopia, so it seems like their losing streak might be coming to an end soon.

International Feature Film

Hidetoshi Nishijima and Toko Miura as Yusuke and Misaki inside a car in the 2021 movie Drive My Car.
Image via Bitters End

Drive My Car

Flee

The Hand of God

Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

The Worst Person in the World

Who Should Win: This is another particularly strong category, but The Worst Person in the World was hands down one of the best films of 2021, with stunning direction by Joachim Trier and a commanding lead performance by Renate Reinsve. It’s understandable why The Worst Person in the World won’t likely win any Oscars this year, considered its competition, but it’s still a shame that this modern-day masterpiece won’t be rewarded.

Who Will Win: Every time an international film has been nominated in both this category and Best Picture, the nominee has understandably won this category. That seems to be the case here with Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car, which will probably be Japan’s first win in this category since 2008’s Departures. But Drive My Car absolutely deserves a win here, as Hamaguchi’s quiet look at loss is also one of the best films of last year.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

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Image via Netflix

CODA - Screenplay by Siân Heder

Drive My Car - Screenplay by Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe

Dune - Screenplay by Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth

The Lost Daughter - Written by Maggie Gyllenhaal

The Power of the Dog - Written by Jane Campion

Who Should Win and Will Win: Jane Campion’s adaptation of Thomas Savage’s novel for The Power of the Dog screenplay has been dominating similar categories throughout award season, so it seems like a safe bet to win here. CODA, Drive My Car, or The Lost Daughter could be a surprise winner here, but The Power of the Dog’s dominance so far this year probably means it can’t be beaten.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

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Image via Focus Features

Belfast - Written by Kenneth Branagh

Don’t Look Up - Screenplay by Adam McKay; Story by Adam McKay & David Sirota

King Richard - Written by Zach Baylin

Licorice Pizza - Written by Paul Thomas Anderson

The Worst Person in the World - Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier

Who Should Win: Licorice Pizza is Paul Thomas Anderson’s fifth nominated screenplay, and with eight previous nominations, it’s sort of shocking Anderson has yet to win an Oscar. Anderson was the front-runner in this category for quite some time, and seemed like the primary way Licorice Pizza would get recognition this year. But beyond the critical acclaim, it seems as though Anderson will have to wait for another year to get his Oscar.

Who Will Win: Like Licorice Pizza, it seems the only likely way that Belfast will get recognized this year is through Kenneth Branagh’s original screenplay—which seems extremely likely at this point. Licorice Pizza could still easily sneak ahead in this category, but in what has basically turned into a two-horse race, Branagh has taken a lead in the home stretch.

Actor in a Supporting Role

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Image via Apple TV+

Ciarán Hinds in Belfast

Troy Kotsur in CODA

Jesse Plemons in The Power of the Dog

J.K. Simmons in Being the Ricardos

Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog

Who Should and Will Win: What seemed like a clear victory for Kodi Smit-McPhee for The Power of the Dog has quickly shifted to a likely win for Troy Kotsur in CODA, who has been piling up awards over the last month. As the deaf fisherman father, Frank Rossi, Kotsur gives a touching performance that steals every scene he’s in. It’s also extremely likely that the dual Power of the Dog nominations might split the vote, again, paving the way for Kotsur to win.

Actress in a Supporting Role

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Image via 20th Century Studios

Jessie Buckley in The Lost Daughter

Ariana DeBose in West Side Story

Judi Dench in Belfast

Kirsten Stewart in The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis in King Richard

Who Should and Will Win: It’s truly a shame that Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story probably won’t walk away with more awards, as it faces tough competition in most categories. But Ariana DeBose will almost certainly win this Supporting Role Oscar for her take on Anita in Spielberg’s musical. There are plenty of breakthrough performances throughout West Side Story, but DeBose stands out above them all in a fascinating take on an already beloved role.

Actor in a Leading Role

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Image via Warner Bros.

Javier Bardem in Being the Ricardos

Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog

Andrew Garfield in tick, tick…BOOM!

Will Smith in King Richard

Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth

Who Should and Will Win: Both lead performance Oscars seem to be going to actors who should probably have a statue by now. After previously getting nominated for Ali and The Pursuit of Happyness, this truly seems like the year that Will Smith gets his first Oscar for his role as Richard Williams—the father of Venus and Serena Williams—in King Richard. Smith shows all his layers in this role, from hilarious source of energy to tremendous emotional scenes where his character is struggling to give the best to his family. With King Richard, Smith shows that he’s still one of the most dynamic and exciting actors to watch on film.

Actress in a Leading Role

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Image via Searchlight Pictures

Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter

Penélope Cruz in Parallel Mothers

Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos

Kristen Stewart in Spencer

Who Should Win: For the better part of last year, Kristen Stewart’s role as Princess Diana seemed like the clear choice in this category, but as Best Actress nominations and wins started to go to other performances, Stewart’s seemingly assured victory has turned into a real dark horse nominee. That’s a shame, since Stewart is doing some of her best work in Spencer, a film that completely relies on her performance in showing her mental exhaustion with living the life of royalty. Stewart has been doing great work over the last decade, so this definitely won’t be the last we see of her at the Oscars. But still, it’s disappointing to see such a fantastic performance fall by the wayside.

Who Will Win: Like Smith, Best Actress is probably going to go to someone who should have an Oscar by now, however, in this case, it probably shouldn’t be for this performance. Sure, Jessica Chastain elevates every film she’s in—even The Eyes of Tammy Faye—and she’s been nominated for Supporting Actress for The Help and Best Actress for Zero Dark Thirty. But, unfortunately, the Academy frequently likes to award most acting over best acting, which seems to be the case here. Again, that sort of larger-than-life performance makes sense when taking on someone as big as Tammy Faye Bakker, but it seems like an odd film to finally earn Chastain her well-deserved Oscar, especially considering the strength of the other nominees.

Directing

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Image via Netflix

Belfast - Kenneth Branagh

Drive My Car - Ryusuke Hamaguchi

Licorice Pizza - Paul Thomas Anderson

The Power of the Dog - Jane Campion

West Side Story - Steven Spielberg

Who Should and Will Win: Arguably the clearest choice of Oscar night will be Jane Campion winning for The Power of the Dog. Campion—the first female ever to be nominated for Best Director twice—has swept almost all earlier awards, and no one else is even close to Campion in this one. Back in 1993, Spielberg’s Schindler’s List beat Campion’s The Piano in this category, but almost thirty years later, the tables have turned, and it seems like Campion will defeat Spielberg, making her only the third female director to win this category.

Best Picture

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Image via Netflix

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

Drive My Car

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Who Should Win: Look, it might be because Licorice Pizza was my favorite movie of last year, but Paul Thomas Anderson’s film is an utter joy and a testament to all of his talents as both a writer and director. One of these days, Anderson will win his Oscar, and he may even win Best Picture, but this ain’t that year. Anderson’s affectionate look at 1970’s Los Angeles, and a young, misguided love is one of the effervescent films of 2021, and while its buzz and tally of awards started off strong, it’s waned as award season has heated up. One day, Anderson will get his Oscar, but this year’s Oscars isn’t going to be when it happens.

Who Will Win: Throughout 2021, The Power of the Dog was the certain winner for Best Picture, an obvious victory that couldn’t be challenged by any other competitors. Some films have come on strong and fizzled out quickly, like Belfast and West Side Story, but The Power of the Dog’s buzz has remained strong.

However, after recently winning the top prize at the Producers Guild of America Awards, CODA has become a major player in this conversation, with some thinking that Sian Heder’s film could take down The Power of the Dog. There’s an argument to be made that CODA has a likely shot. The film came out of Sundance early last year with plenty of buzz, even before Apple TV+ bought the film for a festival-record price of $25 million. Plus, with CODA only nominated in three categories—which would make it one of the Best Picture winners with the fewest nominations ever—and Heder not even nominated for Best Director, it is entirely possible that voters give Campion Best Director, then award CODA Best Picture instead, especially considering the buzz over CODA over the last few weeks. This scenario happened previously with Argo, which won Best Picture after Ben Affleck wasn’t even nominated for Best Director.

But maybe a more apt year to look at is 2018, when the race was very much Roma vs. Green Book—the critically-beloved film that seemed like it couldn’t be stopped, facing off against the feel-good audience favorite. Now, I’m not saying CODA is 2021’s Green BookCODA is far better than that Peter Farrelly film—but I do think once again, this year’s Best Picture race boils down to a critical favorite heading off against an audience favorite.

Yet here’s the key thing to remember: the voting group for the Academy Awards has opened up greatly in recent years, leading to the critical favorites that have led the charge all year, like Parasite and Nomadland, to start with the lead and carry that lead to a win in the end. At last year’s awards, it seemed like The Trial of the Chicago 7 could sneak in with a surprise victory, but Nomadland ended up winning, as had been predicted for months. The year before that, 1917 was considered a possible winner, yet Parasite ended up sweeping the awards. At least in the last few years, it certainly seems like the critical favorite throughout the year has ended up being the winner in the end. But not only that, it seems like each year presents a film that would've made sense for the old guard to vote for (CODA), versus what this new voting body would vote for (The Power of the Dog).

But again, the Oscars are unpredictable (see again: Green Book beating Roma), but if recent trends are any indication, The Power of the Dog looks to have this locked up, as it has for most of last year and this year. If anything could take down The Power of the Dog at this point, it’s probably CODA, but don’t underestimate the power of a commanding lead.