The Toronto International Film Festival is always a showcase for some of the year’s best movies. But it’s also a key marker for the beginning of awards season as studios roll out their major Oscar hopefuls to a variety of critics and audiences north of the border. Past TIFF films like The Shape of Water, Moonlight, Gravity, and 12 Years a Slave went on to win Oscar gold, while the festival also makes room for surprise breakout hits like Slumdog Millionaire and Silver Linings Playbook.

So as TIFF 2018 has now come to a close, I can reasonably asses some early Oscar chances for some of the big films that made their debut. Does Damien Chazelle have another La La Land on his hands with First Man? Will Alfonso Cuaron bring Netflix its first Best Picture nomination with ROMA? Can anything beat A Star Is Born? There are a lot of questions that remain, but now that a large number of the year’s hopefuls have finally been seen and assessed, we can start making some predictions. Let’s jump in.

First Man

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Image via Universal Pictures

Director Damien Chazelle was the belle of the TIFF ball two years ago with La La Land, but First Man is a very different kind of film that drew a very different kind of response. This is a grounded, gritty, very intimate chronicle of Neil Armstrong and NASA’s path towards putting a man on the moon, and while it does soar to moving heights, it challenges the viewer in a number of ways. The film didn’t hit quite as big at TIFF as it did at Venice, but it still feels like a major contender in a number of categories. Ryan Gosling’s understated performance has the possibility of being overlooked for not being “showy” enough, but as of right now he’s a contender. Ditto Claire Foy, who does a lot with a somewhat small but pivotal role. Then there is Oscar-winner Justin Hurwitz’s original score, which is one of the year’s best.

First Man feels like the kind of film that could end up scoring a ton of nominations but walking away with few wins—it's good and well-crafted, but doesn't necessarily break the mold. Much will depend on how the film is received over the next few months, and which other films rise to the occasion.

Likely Nominations:

  • Best Picture
  • Best Director
  • Best Actor – Ryan Gosling
  • Best Supporting Actress – Claire Foy
  • Best Adapted Screenplay
  • Best Cinematography
  • Best Production Design
  • Best Costume Design
  • Best Original Score
  • Best Film Editing
  • Best Sound Editing
  • Best Sound Mixing

ROMA

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Image via Netflix

Netflix came close to receiving a Best Picture Oscar nomination with Mudbound, and barring any major shakeups, it looks like ROMA will finally bring that long-awaited recognition home. It helps, of course, that the film is a masterwork by Oscar-winning Gravity director Alfonso Cuaron. Here, Cuaron tells the semi-autobiographical story of a family falling apart in 1970 Mexico City, as told through the eyes of their housemaid Cleo, with newcomer Yalitza Aparicio delivering a phenomenally subtle performance. Cuaron’s direction is impeccable, utilizing cutting-edge technology to make a black-and-white film wholly immersive (he's also the DP, editor, writer, and producer). It’s entirely in Spanish as well, and while those could serve as impediments to its eventual success in regards to not being “commercial” enough, Netflix won’t have poor box office receipts to worry about, so success will be in the eye of the beholder.

But Netflix in and of itself could be a roadblock as well, given the some of the Academy members’ negative attitude towards how the streaming service is affecting theatrical releases. Still, the craft of the film is impossible to ignore, and people who love ROMA really love it. In terms of Oscar prospects, it feels like it falls somewhere between the artful admiration for The Tree of Life and the passion for The Shape of Water.

Likely Nominations

  • Best Picture
  • Best Director
  • Best Actress – Yalitza Aparicio
  • Best Original Screenplay
  • Best Cinematography
  • Best Production Design
  • Best Film Editing
  • Best Sound Editing
  • Best Sound Mixing
  • Best Foreign Language Film

A Star Is Born

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Image via Warner Bros.

Who’d have predicted that Bradley Cooper would be the one to craft the Oscar frontrunner of 2018? But he has, he really has. A Star Is Born rocked critics at TIFF, and each person you talked to pegged this as the film to beat come Oscar time. It’s an impeccably crafted, tremendously entertaining, and wildly emotional chronicle of love, fame, and everything in between. Not only is Cooper a shoo-in for a Best Director nomination, but he’s also the frontrunner for Best Actor at the moment while co-star Lady Gaga is the perceived frontrunner for Best Actress. A lot can (and will) change over the next few months, but A Star Is Born gave me serious La La Land vibes throughout TIFF—which is both good and bad, considering that film’s Oscar outcome.

The commercial success of A Star Is Born will only help its case, so all eyes have now shifted towards its early October release to see if this thing is as big of a hit with audiences as it was with critics.

Likely Nominations

  • Best Picture
  • Best Director
  • Best Actress - Lady Gaga
  • Best Actor - Bradley Cooper
  • Best Supporting Actor - Sam Elliott
  • Best Adapted Screenplay
  • Best Cinematography
  • Best Film Editing
  • Best Costume Design
  • Best Production Design
  • Best Original Song
  • Best Sound Mixing
  • Best Sound Editing

If Beale Street Could Talk

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Image via Annapurna Pictures

While everyone was anticipating Moonlight director Barry Jenkins’ new film If Beale Street Could Talk, the resulting feature and its response were both a bit surprising. This James Baldwin adaptation is gorgeously crafted, but it’s a very small, very methodical, very intimate film. It sparked to some critics terrifically well, while others were left a bit cold or disappointed. The film undoubtedly speaks to the times we live in now, but in a rather different tone of voice. But then it came in and scored the first runner-up prize for the People’s Choice Award, signaling that audiences sparked to this one quite strongly despite its artful vibe.

It’ll be interesting to see how this one rolls out. It’s not the jaw-dropping achievement that Moonlight was, but it tackles different kinds of issues in fascinating ways. It could be a major player, or it could be one that falls away a bit as the season steamrolls forward. Regardless, I expect its craft will be rightfully recognized.

Likely Nominations

  • Best Picture
  • Best Supporting Actress – Regina King
  • Best Cinematography
  • Best Original Score
  • Best Costume Design
  • Best Production Design

Green Book

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Image via Universal Pictures

Undoubtedly the biggest surprise of TIFF was Green Book, a dramatic film from Dumb and Dumber co-director Peter Farrelly (yes really) that ran away with the People’s Choice Award. Past winners of this trophy include Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Room, and The Imitation Game—you have to go back to 2011 to find a winner that didn’t land a Best Picture nomination, so that puts Green Book directly in the awards race. Set in the 1960s, Viggo Mortensen plays a bouncer who drives a famed pianist (Mahershala Ali) through the Deep South, navigating through establishments that will serve people of color. The movie is apparently an immense crowdpleaser in the vein of The Help and The Blind Side, and Universal is expected to submit Ali for Best Supporting Actor and Mortensen for Best Actor—two nominations that could definitely happen. I guess we have our party crasher.

Likely Nominations

  • Best Picture
  • Best Actor – Viggo Mortensen
  • Best Supporting Actor – Mahershala Ali

Widows

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Image via 20th Century Fox

Six years after 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture, filmmaker Steve McQueen is finally back—and he’s changing things up. Widows is a far cry from the very dramatic, somber films of McQueen’s past. Instead, he’s crafted a rocking, pulse-pounding thriller of the blockbuster sort, albeit packed with craft, artistic ambition, and thematic heft. If Widows hits big with critics and audiences down the line, it could enter the Oscar race as a populist contender in the vein of Christopher Nolan’s Inception or Dunkirk. But it’s also possible folks choose to ignore or overlook the heavy themes McQueen is dabbling in here and simply write this off as a commercial play. That would be a mistake.

Notice for the performances, including Viola Davis’s stirring lead role, Elizabeth Debicki’s resilient supporting turn, and Daniel Kaluuya’s downright terrifying villain, are all in the offing. Again, depending on how things shake out. But don’t underestimate this one.

Likely Nominations

  • Best Picture
  • Best Actress – Viola Davis
  • Best Supporting Actress – Elizabeth Debicki
  • Best Supporting Actor – Daniel Kaluuya
  • Best Cinematography
  • Best Production Design

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

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Image via Fox Searchlight

Melissa McCarthy scored her first Oscar nomination for Bridesmaids and it seems possible she could score her second with Can You Ever Forgive Me?, this time in the Lead Actress category. The true-story dramedy received a much warmer reception at TIFF than in Telluride, with high marks for McCarthy and co-star Richard E. Grant’s performances. The film itself probably isn’t in the Best Picture offing, but notice for the turns from McCarthy and Grant feel warranted.

Likely Nominations

  • Best Actress – Melissa McCarthy
  • Best Supporting Actor – Richard E. Grant

Beautiful Boy

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Image via Amazon

Beautiful Boy is one of those Oscar films that’s more a performance piece than a juggernaut contender. It’s tough to watch as it chronicles the real, frustrating cycle of addiction from the point of view of a boy’s father. Timothée Chalamet and Steve Carell both deliver excellent performances here, and Chalamet will likely be submitting in Supporting as the film is mostly told from the POV of Carell’s father character. He’s excellent as well, but if the Best Actor field is crowded it’s possible Carell gets left out in the cold. Chalamet's stunning work, meanwhile, should get recognized.

Likely Nominations

  • Best Supporting Actor – Timothée Chalamet

Boy Erased

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Image via Focus Features

Speaking of performance-driven films, Boy Erased could similarly find itself relegated to an acting nod or two—if that. Joel Edgerton’s second directorial feature didn’t drum up too much buzz, but critics did take notice of the supporting performances from Russell Crowe and Nicole Kidman. Likelihood of nominations for the two will depend on how crowded those categories get, but they’re very good in the film, as is Lucas Hedges in the lead role of a boy sent to a gay conversion therapy camp. But this is also a film that may fall away rather quickly from the awards conversation if it doesn’t find passionate supporters soon.

Likely Nominations

  • Best Supporting Actor – Russell Crowe

Destroyer

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Image via Annapurna Pictures

Not to worry though, Nicole Kidman has a lead role with which to contend. Destroyer is a straight up noir thriller, and while the response to the film at TIFF was far cooler than the one it received at Telluride, Kidman’s turn as a morally ambiguous LAPD detective courted lots of praise. It’s also one of those transformative performances that Academy members seem keen to recognize, as Kidman dons heavy makeup and a wig to reflect the internal pain of her character. Given the somewhat lukewarm response to the film as a whole at TIFF this is probably a bubble contender for Best Actress depending on how heavy the field is this year, but it’s certainly one to keep an eye on.

Likely Nominations

  • Best Actress – Nicole Kidman

The Sisters Brothers

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Image via Annapurna Pictures

Filmmaker Jacques Audiard’s unique, melancholic Western The Sisters Brothers played great at TIFF, to the point that some are starting to wonder if it’s a dark horse Best Picture nominee. If enough folks spark to Annapurna Pictures’ funny, sad, funny/sad drama, it’s possible. Best Actor recognition for John C. Reilly is fully warranted, though the film may have to settle for a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination. Keep an eye on this one. Things could shift.

Likely Nominations

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

The Old Man & the Gun

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Image via Fox Searchlight

Robert Redford’s supposed final performance in The Old Man & the Gun may very well put him back in the Best Actor Oscar race. It helps that David Lowery’s film is warm and endearing, too. But yeah, the narrative around Redford plus the skill of his performance could definitely put him in the Best Actor circle.

Likely Nominations

  • Best Actor – Robert Redford

Ben Is Back

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Image via LD Entertainment

While Ben Is Back leaves much to be desired as a film about addiction, Julia Roberts’ turn as the supportive mother of an addict (Lucas Hedges) who follows him around on Christmas Eve to recover their stolen dog is a standout. Depending on how the rest of the Best Actress field shakes out, she seems a fairly likely candidate to score a nod.

Likely Nominations

  • Best Actress – Julia Roberts

The Front Runner

Image via Sony Pictures
Image via Sony Pictures

With political overtones and a movie star lead performance, some wondered if The Front Runner was a return to Up in the Air form for Oscar-nominated filmmaker Jason Reitman. Alas, probably not. The film received a somewhat mixed if kind reception at TIFF, but even Hugh Jackman’s lead performance didn’t drum up much buzz.

Likely Nominations

Maybe Best Actor – Hugh Jackman

22 July

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Image via Netflix

Alongside ROMA, Netflix also has United 93 and Bourne filmmaker Paul Greengrass’ engrossing, uncomfortable terrorism drama 22 July. The film chronicles the attack from a far-right terrorist in 2011 Norway, but unlike United 93, Greengrass first immerses the audience in the attack itself but then spends the rest of the film detailing the fallout. It poses the question, how can we possibly muster enough hope and courage to stand up to such hatred—hatred that is being endorsed by major political wings? Greengrass could be a dark horse contender for a Best Director nod, but the film’s lack of known performers and somewhat lack of buzz (it got positive reviews, but few marked it as a standout film at TIFF) may mean its Oscar prospects are quite low.

Likely Nominations

Maybe Best Director – Paul Greengrass

The Hate U Give

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Image via 20th Century Fox

This one may be wishful thinking, but if 20th Century Fox was smart it’d put a bigger awards push on The Hate U Give. The YA adaptation received a warm reception at TIFF, although it was given the backhanded compliment of being a good YA movie. I contend it’s one of the best films of the year full-stop, and while it may be an uphill battle for larger consideration, at the very least Russell Hornsby’s turn as a devoted father is worthy of recognition.

Hopeful Nominations

  • Best Supporting Actor – Russell Hornsby