Looking into August, all signs were pointing to Fantastic Four underwhelming significantly and failing to reach the heights of its predecessors. Still, with the Marvel brand becoming overwhelmingly popular, I thought it should at least carry it past the gross of notorious comic book bomb Green Lantern. I was wrong. Fantastic Four now sits at the lowest of Marvel adaptations right next to Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance (which was made for a fraction of the budget of Fantastic Four).

Speaking of wrong, Straight Outta Compton proved to be a much bigger hit than was originally projected, and a built-in audience could not save Sinister 2 from awful reviews.

Last year had the lowest-grossing September in six years. Given the prevalence of two high-profile sequels and several appealing options for adults, this month should avoid continuance of that trend.

A Walk in the Woods (September 2nd - Broad Green Pictures)

Films about aging friends reuniting for an adventure, such as The Bucket List and Last Vegas, have seen some success in recent years. While Robert Redford and Nick Nolte are both well-liked actors, they do not share the same drawing power as Jack Nicholson, Morgan Freeman, or Michael Douglas, and while the Appalachian Trail is a scenic setting, it lacks the excitement of somewhere like Las Vegas.

That’s not to say that hiking films have all been duds at the box office. Last year’s Wild ended up being very lucrative for Fox Searchlight, and the film received two Oscar nominations. While A Walk in the Woods is also based on a best-selling novel, Wild was released during the height of awards season and received a great deal of critical praise. A Walk in the Woods has received mixed reviews so far (currently at a 45% on Rotten Tomatoes), which doesn’t inspire confidence that the film will have great legs. Given that the film will likely not have a high screen count, this should open low and disappear quickly from theaters.

• Opening Weekend (5-day): $6 million
• Projected Gross Range: $5 million - $20 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $11 million

The Transporter Refueled (September 4th – EuraCorp)

The original Transporter arrived in 2002 and saw Jason Statham in his first starring role in an action film. Two sequels followed, the latter of which had the highest returns of the trilogy with a worldwide gross of $108.9 on a $30 million budget. While this is a fine result, the third film grossed significantly less in the United States than Transporter 2, signifying that the franchise may have run out of gas.

Continuing August’s trend of sequels/reboots that no one asked for (Fantastic Four, Hitman: Agent 47), The Transporter Refueled arrives seven years after the previous installment. Refueled was announced in 2013 as part of a new trilogy of Transporter films with a new lead (Ed Skrein). Unless this film has gigantic foreign returns, it’s hard to imagine the sequels coming to fruition. The trailers for the most part make Refueled look like a total retread of the original films (fistfights in parking garages, kidnapping, awful jokes, etc.). Additionally, Ed Skrein looks like a C-level Jason Statham and doesn’t appear to bring anything new to the role. A good target for Refueled is last Labor Day’s disappointment The November Man. November Man at least had Pierce Brosnan in the titular role, and while Refueled does carry a softer PG-13 rating, it will likely still end up on the low end of Labor Day releases.

• Opening Weekend: $7 million
• Projected Gross Range: $15 million - $30 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $18 million

The Visit (September 11th - Universal Pictures)

Poor M. Night Shyamalan. At one point proclaimed the next Steven Spielberg, M. Night’s name has been dragged through the mud for the last decade and he has not had a real box office success since 2004’s The Village. M. Night’s last film, After Earth, flopped with just $60.5 million against a $130 million budget (though overseas it performed much better).

The Visit sees the writer/director/producer returning to his horror roots and working on a much lower budget than he had become accustomed to. While the film’s trailer is generating some interest and definitely has some creepy undertones, it doesn’t seem like it’s going to do much in the way of reviving Shyamalan’s career. The found footage genre at this point seems to be on its last legs (as evidenced by this year’s The Gallows and Project Almanac), and those seeking thrills this weekend will most likely be checking out The Perfect Guy. Early word after initial screenings is positive, but The Visit still looks doomed to end up on the lower end of found footage horror films.

• Opening Weekend: $13 million
• Projected Gross Range: $20 million - $40 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $29 million

The Perfect Guy (September 11th – Sony / Screen Gems)

After quite a few disappointments this year (Pixels, Chappie, Aloha), Sony finally looks like it has a modest hit on its hands with The Perfect Guy. Sony’s film production company Screen Gems has had an excellent track record at releasing thrillers aimed at African-American audiences (Obsessed, No Good Deed), and The Perfect Guy looks to fit nicely into this wheelhouse.

No Good Deed was released almost exactly one year ago to dismal reviews but opened to a strong $24.2 million on its way to a final gross of $52.5 million. Judging from the trailer, The Perfect Guy looks quite generic and may end up sharing similar critical reception. However, reaching the box office heights of No Good Deed definitely seems within reach.

• Opening Weekend: $25 million
• Projected Gross Range: $35 million - $70 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $55 million

90 Minutes in Heaven (September 11th – Samuel Goldwyn)

Based on the novel of the same name, 90 Minutes in Heaven is one of two faith-based films being released this month (see below for analysis of Captive). The book was hugely popular when it was released in 2004 and has continued to sell well over the last decade.

Samuel Goldwyn scored a huge hit in 2008 with fellow Christian themed film Fireproof, which received a limited release and grossed $33.4 million on a $500,000 budget. Since then, the distributor has released other faith-based films with much less success (To Save A Life, Home Run), but given the popularity of the book, 90 Minutes in Heaven should turn a nice profit for Samuel Goldwyn.

• Opening Weekend: $5 million
• Projected Gross Range: $10 million - $35 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $18 million

Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials (September 18th – 20th Century Fox)

The Maze Runner became a surprise hit almost exactly one year ago and opened to $32.5 million on its way to a $102.4 million gross (with another $238 million overseas). The Scorch Trials seems to pick up right where The Maze Runner left off. While the new film takes us out of the titular maze, all of the principal characters/actors have returned, and the new "Scorch" world appropriately raises the stakes for Thomas and his crew.

One factor that does cause slight concern for The Scorch Trial’s performance is fellow young-adult sequel The Divergent Series: Insurgent, which was released earlier this year. Insurgent was released almost exactly one year after Divergent and had a decent opening weekend, but burned out quickly and ended up grossing $20 million less domestically than its predecessor. In addition, Insurgent faced tough competition for action audiences two weeks later when Furious 7 was released, and The Scorch Trials has The Martian to deal with in the same amount of time (though Martian will likely skew a bit older). While these similarities do not by any means guarantee that The Scorch Trials will follow the same pattern, it does show that sequels to well-received young adult adaptations are by no means invincible.

There are a few factors that indicate The Scorch Trials will not share a similar drop off. September generally is a much less competitive month than March, and The Maze Runner had much more positive critical reception than Divergent (Rotten Tomatoes scores of 63% vs. 40%). Given that the books are still selling well, The Scorch Trials will likely mark a slight improvement over its predecessor.

• Opening Weekend: $40 million
• Projected Gross Range: $80 million - $150 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $110 million

Black Mass (September 18th – Warner Bros.)

Late September / early October has become a go-to period for studios to release crime films that also serve as awards hopefuls (Mystic River, Gone Girl, The Departed). Warner Bros. has slated Black Mass with the hopes of achieving similar success.

Johnny Depp's brand has fallen off significantly in recent years. Not counting Into The Woods, in which he had a small supporting role, Depp has had a string of 5 flops in a row (Mortdecai, Transcendence, The Lone Ranger, Dark Shadows, The Rum Diary). Fortunately for Depp, Black Mass looks much more appealing than all 5 of those films, has an incredibly strong supporting cast, and carries the added benefit of being based on the true story of infamous gangster James “Whitey” Bulger. Depp's performance as the aforementioned gangster has been heavily publicized and is already generating Oscar buzz.

Official reviews have not yet been released, but early screenings have been met with positive reception. Black Mass invokes memories of past September dark crime dramas such as Prisoners and The Town. Both of those films were released mid-September and also featured impressive casts. If Black Mass is as good as early word suggests, it will likely end up closer to The Town’s $92.1 million gross, if not higher.

• Opening Weekend: $27 million
• Projected Gross Range: $50 million - $130 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $85 million

Captive (September 18th – Paramount)

Captive is based on a true story and non-fiction book in which a criminal breaks out of a courthouse and holds a newly widowed mother hostage. David Oyelowo’s stardom has risen significantly thanks to his acclaimed performance in Selma, and Kate Mara has also become more popular due to House of Cards (we can forgive her for Fantastic Four).

Despite the strong cast, Captive faces a bit of an uphill battle. It looks significantly darker than 90 Minutes in Heaven, which may turn off some viewers. Additionally, 2015 has been a rough year for faith-based films. Do You Believe?, Little Boy, and Faith of our Fathers all grossed less than $13 million, and had per-screen averages of less than $3,000 (Fireproof by comparison had a per-screen average of $8,148). Also, if 90 Minutes in Heaven over performs the weekend before, it may steal audiences from Captive. Do You Believe? ended up with $12.9 million, which is a good target for Captive.

• Opening Weekend: $4 million
• Projected Gross Range: $5 million - $20 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $14 million

Everest (September 18th - Universal)

Everest is based on the novel Left for Dead and the 1996 Mount Everest disaster, in which 12 people died trying to reach/return from the legendary summit. The trailers have put the striking visuals of Mt. Everest and the storm that hit the climbers front and center. In addition, they have illustrated the main character’s communication during the climb with his pregnant wife waiting for him at home, a strategy that worked incredibly well for fellow true story drama American Sniper. It also doesn’t hurt that the film has an appealing cast, with Jason Clarke and Josh Brolin leading along with support from Jake Gyllenhaal and Keira Knightley.

Universal is taking a Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol approach with their release, with an initial week of exclusively IMAX screenings before its wide expansion. This approach may very well work in its favor, as it is the type of film that is perfect for IMAX theaters and is aimed at older audiences that can build well off positive word-of-mouth.

Regardless of the critical reception upon its release, it is highly unlikely that Everest will be reaching the box office heights of past weather-related disaster films such as The Perfect Storm and The Day After Tomorrow. Still, it should at the very least be reaching the gross of fellow mountain climbing film Vertical Limit, which was released fifteen years ago to a final tally of $69.2 million.

• Opening Weekend (Wide): $22 million
• Projected Gross Range: $60 million - $130 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $90 million

The Green Inferno (September 25th – High Top Releasing)

The long delayed release of Eli Roth’s latest film is finally here. Open Road Films originally scheduled The Green Inferno for release last September, but financial difficulties with production company Worldview Entertainment shelved the film indefinitely. The trailers have done a great job of illustrating the premise of the film and are undeniably creepy, and there is something incredibly eerie about the idea of a community in the rainforest torturing and murdering a group of environmentalists that traveled there to protect said community.

However, The Green Inferno will likely only appeal to a small niche market consisting of die-hard Roth fanatics and what’s left of the horror torture fan base (a genre also fondly referred to as torture porn). Torture porn has died off significantly since the Hostel and Saw series ended five years ago, and as evidenced by the underperformance of Hostel: Part II, Roth’s brand is far from invincible. This should end up right around the lower end of the torture porn films, and would be lucky to reach the box office heights of Roth’s directorial debut, Cabin Fever ($21.1 million).

• Opening Weekend: $6 million
• Projected Gross Range: $8 million - $25 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $14 million

Hotel Transylvania 2 (September 25th – Sony Pictures)

The first Hotel Transylvania was released almost exactly three years ago and became the highest grossing film domestically in Sony Pictures Animation history. The film was sold largely on the talented voice cast (Adam Sandler, Andy Samberg, Kevin James) and the amusing premise (Dracula opening a hotel for fellow monsters). However, as evidenced by Ted 2, a great premise cannot necessarily guarantee box office success for sequels. While teaching Dracula’s son to be scary does appear to lend a few laughs, the premise of a monster hotel definitely doesn’t seem as fresh this time around.

Two good comparisons for Hotel Transylvania 2 are fellow Sony Animation sequels The Smurfs 2 and Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs 2. Cloudy 2 grossed nearly as much as its predecessor ($119.7 million vs. $124.8 million), while Smurfs 2 grossed about half as much as The Smurfs ($71.0 million vs. $142.6 million). However, there are a few key differences between those two properties. The Smurfs 2 was a live-action/animation hybrid (a much tougher sell), was released during what is frequently the most competitive month of the summer (July), and was coming off a predecessor that was somewhat poorly received (22% on Rotten Tomatoes and IMDB user rating of 5.5). Cloudy 2, on the other hand, was fully animated, was released during the not so competitive month of September, and had a predecessor that was well received by both critics and audiences (87% on RT and 7.0 on IMDB).

In terms of comparisons, Hotel Transylvania falls much closer to Cloudy than The Smurfs, and while it did receive lukewarm reviews from critics (44% on RT), it has a surprisingly high IMDB user rating of 7.1, suggesting audiences would be open to a sequel. Transylvania 2 will likely not reach the heights of its predecessor, but it should still end up on the higher end for Sony Pictures Animation.

• Opening Weekend: $38 million
• Projected Gross Range: $70 million - $140 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $110 million

The Intern (September 25th – Warner Bros.)

Over the last few decades, Nancy Meyers has carved out a niche for herself for successful comedies/dramas (It’s Complicated, Something’s Gotta Give) skewing towards older audiences. Unfortunately, The Intern does not seem likely to join her most successful films, and may end up as her least lucrative film to date.

The trailers have done a good job at articulating the basic premise of the film (Anne Hathaway’s start-up company hires senior citizen Robert De Niro as an intern). Unfortunately, they are also riddled with painfully unfunny old age jokes, as well as a gag in which Robert De Niro gets an erection (really?), and gives away most, if not all, of the film’s major plot points.

The film does at the very least benefit from two well-known lead actors, as well as some strong support from Rene Russo and Adam DeVine. But regardless of the actual quality of the film, The Intern faces tough competition for adults. It is sandwiched between Black Mass and The Martian, and has Steve Jobs to deal with two weeks later. Also, given that Meyers’ last four films were released in December, it does not inspire a lot of confidence that Warner Bros. decided to release The Intern in September.

• Opening Weekend: $15 million
• Projected Gross Range: $35 million - $75 million
• Estimated Final Gross: $47 million

Studio Prediction for September

I’m fully aware I ate my words last month when I declared that another studio would take the box office crown (thank you again, Fantastic Four). However, given that their releases this month consist of a found footage horror movie and a film about mountain climbers, Universal will likely hand it over to another studio for September. Which studio that is remains to be seen, but given that The Perfect Guy and Hotel Transylvania 2 are both relatively safe bets, I’m going to give Sony the edge for September. However, don’t be surprised if Black Mass and The Intern over perform and put Warner Bros. on top.